Anthony Black

Model View:

Black was the big winner from the models.  Sure, Wenbamyama scored higher, but he is also a generational prospect and we’d be surprised if he wasn’t first.  However, Black finished second (edging out Brandon Miller) despite being projected in the later part of the lottery for most of the year.  4 of the 5 pegged him as a Plus Starter with All Star Upside and the other called him a Potential Superstar (narrowly).  So what happened?  Mostly, Black was very solid across the board and the models could only raise his score without finding a weakness to “punish” him for (models are notoriously bad at evaluating shooting form).

Diving a bit deeper, you can see that Black wasn’t dominant in any of the following categories, but he was a net positive:

Impact Metrics: 6.2 BPM, 4.2 WS, 8.0 Net Rating

Applied Athleticism: 2.4 steals per 40, 0.7 blocks per 40, 1.4 O-Boards per 40

Efficiency: Good positional A/T (good A/T for a SG or SF), 0.8 steals per foul, only slightly negative positional TS%

Scouting variables: Scouts said high awareness, potential elite defender, projected 9th pick in Brett Huff’s consensus mock draft

Measurables: 19.4 on draft night, 6’7″ height (with shoes), 6’7.5″ wingspan (meh), 210 weight or 2.7 pounds per inch

Competition: Arkansas had the 20th best SOS from KenPom (25th best offensive rating; 16th best defensive)

Incidentally, the models may be uncovering an issue that Black maybe the proverbial jack of all trades, master of none.  But in terms of scoring him, the models kept creeping higher.  We’ll get to some of Black’s development areas in other sections, but clearly, he is a solid all around player which creates a great base for a prospect.

Best Stats:

2.4 steals per 40; 3.9 DBPM, 58% free throw rate

Black has good applied athleticism and applies it largely to defense, which should translate into the NBA

Worst Stats:

30% on threes; 37% of possessions in P&R, 34th percentile on spot ups, 5th percentile in isolation

The shooting issues are already documented, but let’s turn to the other metrics for a moment.  Musselman set up an offense where 37% of Black’s possessions were P&R, which he ran well, but wasn’t at the level of a Lonzo Ball who could run an offense via the P&R.  Musselman doesn’t do this for every player.  He did it because Black can’t open up driving lanes with the threat of his shot and doesn’t have the speed / advanced handles to consistently create advantages, so he used a ton of on ball screens to help Black get a step on the defense.

That’s not inherently bad, especially if you view Black as a premium role player who can play great defense while being a complementary offensive player.  But it is really hard to be a star in the NBA if you can’t create or are not an absolute maestro running the P&R, which would normally require a strong jumper to execute.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

Despite what the one model said, I really don’t see Black being a traditional star player.  However, to hit his ceiling and be very valuable, he simply needs to improve his outside shot and have his defense translate.  If he can be a secondary or even tertiary ball handler who hits threes, drives, and plays great defense – he’s going to have a 10+ year career and be a part of some title contenders.

Verdict:

This is sort of deja vu to me.  While they are not the same player, there are a ton of erie similarities here between Black and Dyson Daniels from last year.  Daniels was a potentially elite connector who needed to improve his shot, he scored very high in all the models, and NBA teams seemed to value his skill set and he crept up draft boards in the run up to the actual draft (and he finished with the 8th highest BPM of rookies who played 1000 minutes).  Black sort of fits into that same archetype, but he’s a bit shorter and smaller than Daniels, but whereas Daniels is very professional and stoic, Black plays like he’s been possessed by a demented honey badger.

And frankly, I feel a bit similarly with Black too.  I think Daniels size gave him a bit higher upside (more opportunity to guard up).  But Black is essentially a jump shot away from being a very valuable player.  Given all of the other skills he’s developed, it’s hard to imagine he’s not a hard worker (again you can luck into speed, but you can’t really luck into handles and processing a defense, those take hours of practice and film study) and should at least be able to become a passable shooter.

I don’t think that Black quite has the star upside that I would want to swing for if I had a top pick.  Even with a jumper, he just doesn’t have any elite advantage to exploit to consistently create offense.  He very likely has a ceiling as a secondary creator.  However, it’s really to envision Black playing a valuable role for a contender.  He’s the type of player who would have fit perfectly onto the Heat alongside Butler or the Nuggets next to Jokic.  And I know that will disappoint some fans, as especially fans of lottery teams really want their pick to be the next Butler or Jokic.  But Black is going to be a great selection for a team, even if the shooting development leads to a bit of an uneven rookie season.

All of this makes him a great selection in the 6-12 range.  And personally, if I was drafting, I would take him somewhere closer to 6 (say 6-9) than the latter part of that range.