Anthony Black

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 210

Wingspan: 6'7.5"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.4

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Arkansas

Advanced

OBPM: 2.8

DBPM: 3.9

BPM: 6.7

WS/40: .133

Efficiency

TS%: .549

2P%: .513

3P%: .301

FT%: .705

FG%: .453

Strengths & Development Areas:

Defensive Rotations
Multi-Position Defender
Passing Vision
Perimeter
Shooting Form Issues
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
12.33
No Impact
10.05
Positional
9.72
Humble
10.67
Pos Humble
11.71
Average
10.89

Film View:

Offensively, Black is an extremely savvy player who has a decent physical profile and skill set, but uses his high awareness and quick decision making to get the most out of his tools.  Black is a solid athlete who has a decent first step and who possesses solid handles.  He…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Evan TurnerJimmy ButlerJeff Taylor

Best Stats:

2.4 steals per 40; 3.9 DBPM, 58% free throw rate

Black has good applied athleticism and applies it largely to defense, which should translate into the NBA

Worst Stats:

30% on threes; 37% of possessions in P&R, 34th percentile on spot ups, 5th percentile in isolation

The shooting issues are already documented, but let’s turn to the other metrics for a moment.  Musselman set up an offense where 37% of Black’s possessions were P&R, which he ran well, but wasn’t at the level of a Lonzo Ball who could run an offense via the P&R.  Musselman doesn’t do this for every player.  He did it because Black can’t open up driving lanes with the threat of his shot and doesn’t have the speed / advanced handles to consistently create advantages, so he used a ton of on ball screens to help Black get a step on the defense.

That’s not inherently bad, especially if you view Black as a premium role player who can play great defense while being a complementary offensive player.  But it is really hard to be a star in the NBA if you can’t create or are not an absolute maestro running the P&R, which would normally require a strong jumper to execute.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

Despite what the one model said, I really don’t see Black being a traditional star player.  However, to hit his ceiling and be very valuable, he simply needs to improve his outside shot and have his defense translate.  If he can be a secondary or even tertiary ball handler who hits threes, drives, and plays great defense – he’s going to have a 10+ year career and be a part of some title contenders.

Verdict:

This is sort of deja vu to me.  While they are not the same player, there are a ton of erie similarities here between Black and Dyson Daniels from last year.  Daniels was a potentially elite connector who needed to improve his shot, he scored very high in all the models, and NBA teams seemed to value his skill set and he crept up draft boards in the run up to the actual draft (and he finished with the 8th highest BPM of rookies who played 1000 minutes).  Black sort of fits into that same archetype, but he’s a bit shorter and smaller than Daniels, but whereas Daniels is very professional and stoic, Black plays like he’s been possessed by a demented honey badger.

And frankly, I feel a bit similarly with Black too.  I think Daniels size gave him a bit higher upside (more opportunity to guard up).  But Black is essentially a jump shot away from being a very valuable player.  Given all of the other skills he’s developed, it’s hard to imagine he’s not a hard worker (again you can luck into speed, but you can’t really luck into handles and processing a defense, those take hours of practice and film study) and should at least be able to become a passable shooter.

I don’t think that Black quite has the star upside that I would want to swing for if I had a top pick.  Even with a jumper, he just doesn’t have any elite advantage to exploit to consistently create offense.  He very likely has a ceiling as a secondary creator.  However, it’s really to envision Black playing a valuable role for a contender.  He’s the type of player who would have fit perfectly onto the Heat alongside Butler or the Nuggets next to Jokic.  And I know that will disappoint some fans, as especially fans of lottery teams really want their pick to be the next Butler or Jokic.  But Black is going to be a great selection for a team, even if the shooting development leads to a bit of an uneven rookie season.

All of this makes him a great selection in the 6-12 range.  And personally, if I was drafting, I would take him somewhere closer to 6 (say 6-9) than the latter part of that range.

NBA Comp High:

Lonzo Ball (SG version)
Lonzo Ball (SG version)
The more I watched Black, the most he reminder me of Ball both in terms of what he could become and some of the areas he needed to develop to get there. Ball entered the draft with more pedigree and frankly was a much better P&R option. However, he also struggled with his outside shot and had some of the exact same funky mechanical issues. Over his first three seasons, his three point percentage went from 30% -> 32% -> 38% and was 42% before he was injured in 2022. Lonzo wasn't a traditional star for the Bulls, but he had improved every year and had put up a 1.7 BPM in 2021 and was at a 2.5 in 2022 (top 40 in the league) before getting hurt. DeRozan and LaVine were the stars of those Bulls teams, but Lonzo was extremely valuable and they suffered a lot after he was hurt. I think if all goes right, Black can experience similar growth and make a similar impact.

NBA Comp Medium:

Taller Derrick White
Taller Derrick White
White had some pretty heroic moments in the playoffs and had his own 2.4 BPM this year (at age 28 versus Ball at 24), so Celtics fans might take issue with who is the high versus mid outcome here. But what I want to highlight with White is he was really a hard nosed defensive player with inconsistent outside shooting and an odd offensive style where he wasn't quite a PG, but also didn't play like a traditional SG. But he's made an impact everywhere. I think that Black has a lot of the same energy and tough-mindedness that White has always had. White also isn't someone who has great physical skills or has ever been thought of as a first option, but who has the skills and savvy to play whatever role is needed in a matchup or on a roster. And I think Black can follow a similar trajectory as he smoothes out his shot.

NBA Comp Low:

Caffeinated Evan Turner
Caffeinated Evan Turner
In a worst case, Black probably still has an NBA career, but it's going to be harder to slot him into a lineup. If his shot never develops and his defense doesn't translate when matched up with better athletes. Then you are looking at a funky creator and good passer, who can add value to a team, but who will need to be in some very specific lineups. To be fair, Turner also had a bit of an interesting and quirky personality. It's possible for Black to follow a somewhat similar trajectory, but perhaps fit into the team concept a bit better.

Anthony Black Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 36 34.9 4.1 9.1 .453 0.8 2.6 .301 3.4 6.6 .513 3.7 5.3 .705 1.3 3.8 5.1 3.9 2.1 0.6 3.0 2.6 12.8

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 36 1255 149 329 .453 28 93 .301 121 236 .513 134 190 .705 45 137 182 141 74 22 109 93 460

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 36 1255 4.7 10.5 .453 0.9 3.0 .301 3.9 7.5 .513 4.3 6.1 .705 5.8 4.5 2.4 0.7 3.5 3.0 14.7

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 36 1255 17.2 .549 .495 .283 .578 4.3 12.6 8.5 20.6 3.4 1.8 20.6 20.9 1.8 2.4 4.2 .133 2.8 3.9 6.7
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NBA Draft Network does a prospect breakdown of Arkansas’ Anthony Black.

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