Height: 6'7"

Weight: 232

Position: PF

Draft Age: 18.9

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Villanova

Advanced

OBPM: 3.7

DBPM: 2.5

BPM: 6.2

WS/40: .130

Efficiency

TS%: .571

2P%: .578

3P%: .343

FT%: .703

FG%: .478

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength
Hands
Physical
Quick First Step
Turnover Prone
Defensive Rotations

Model Output:

Original
5.39
No Impact
7.02
Positional
5.96
Humble
7.72
Pos Humble
10.21
Average
7.26

Film View:

Offensively, Cam’s best attribute is his ability to collapse the defense.  We often talk about gravity when it comes to shooting; however, when Cam drives, he forces the defense to adapt and often for help to come over.  Whitmore has a very quick first step for a player his size. …

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

T.J. WarrenIsaiah LiversSemi Ojeleye

Best Stats:

58% FG on two pointers, 57% true shooting; 34% on three (4.2 per game); 6.2 BPM

Cam Whitmore can score and score efficiently.  Additionally, for all the talk of his rawness or lack of awareness, he still made an impact.  6.2 BPM isn’t the type of elite number a lot of other top picks notched (e.g., Brandon Miller 12.0, Jarace Walker 8.8, Taylor Hendricks 7.9); however, it’s also not bad at all and his impact is not just theoretical.  For reference, 6.2 BPM is basically what Maxwell Lewis, Jordan Walsh, and Jalen Hood-Schifino put up combined.

Worst Stats:

1.1 assists per 40 with 25.6% usage, 14.4 FGA per 40, and 2.4 turnovers per 40

These are the numbers of a rim running big man.  This frankly isn’t acceptable for anyone with aspirations of being a primary ball handler.  For perspective, guys like Anthony Edwards and Jaylen Brown faced similar questions when they were drafted and they had 3.4 / 3.3 and 2.9 / 4.5 respectively.  And while Villanova had their flaws, all of their other starters shot over 33% from three, so this wasn’t a situation where there was no space and players were botching his assists.  This is a very legitimate concern and red flag.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

More than anything, Whitmore needs to grow his awareness on both sides of the ball.  He needs to improve his decision making and passing on offense.  And he needs to prove he can put his physical tools to use on the defensive end. If he can collapse defenses and even be an average NBA defender, he certainly has star upside.

Verdict:

Everything in the capsule is a long-form way of saying “the models were right” when they argued.  Whitmore is one of the higher variance players this high up in the draft.  He is one of the few guys who can consistently collapse a defense and has a great combination of physical tools.  He is very young, highly regarded, made some impact, and can flat out score.  However, he’s also isn’t processing either side of the ball especially well, had abysmal passing / turnover issues, and doesn’t apply his tools well defensively.

I always say that the draft is all about probabilities and risk appetite.  Do you want a player more likely to be a contributor or do you want to gamble on upside?  Virtually any potential impact player is wroth drafting at some point for every team.  But at what point in the draft the risk is worth the reward is the real question.  Whitmore has legitimate star upside that he could realistically hit. It’s very possible that he was young and hamstrung by missing the start of the season.  It’s also possible that passing is easier with NBA spacing and some decisions are simplified.  It’s not that hard to imagine him playing in a 5 out offense and driving and seeing exactly where a double is coming from.  But there’s also some very legitimate red flags that could make him either an “empty stats” player or one who takes 4-5 years or more to figure out the league and at that point, he maybe on another franchise or the team that drafts him might have a new front office.

It it was me, I think his ability to collapse a defense and shoot makes him a useful player and one worth being patient for.  I’d have a hard time letting him drop lower than #5.  However, I also think I’d have him towards the back of this tier and would prefer Amen or Miller in a vacuum.  Obviously team needs will dictate the best fit within a given tier.

NBA Comp High:

Miles Bridges or Anthony Edwards
Miles Bridges or Anthony Edwards
The popular comparison I have seen is Bridges. And I can see that. I noted the same shooting issues with Bridges (said it was like he was moving through molasses). However, if all goes right, I also see a lot in common with Anthony Edwards. Watching Whitmore move and play, I couldn't help but notice his powerful drives, his shooting and how if he sped up his release, it would be a threat defenses would play up on to open up drives with his quick first step. As of today, Edwards is still growing, but even three years in he's still growing as a creator (4.4 assists v. 3.3 turnovers) and a defender. And if everything breaks right, I could see Whitmore following a very similar path. Either of these is a fairly realistic upper outcome, but both entered the league in a more advanced position than Cam, so he needs to accelerate his growth.

NBA Comp Medium:

Corey Maggette
Corey Maggette
What do you get in a scenario where Whitmore is a strong scorer and does eventually make a positive impact on the floor, but is never really a great creator for others and remains relatively disinterested in playing defense? You get Maximus aka Corey Maggette. Maggettee was a 6'6" 215 pound wing who was a scoring machine who averaged 16 points per game across 14 seasons (over 20 ppg 3x). He never made an all star game and barely ever had more assists than turnovers, but he had a BPM north of 2.0 twice and made it to the playoffs one time. Yeah, this isn't inspiring confidence.

NBA Comp Low:

Bigger Dion Waiters
Bigger Dion Waiters
So what if Whitmore can't bully NBA players, never significantly improves his awareness, is more of a volume scorer, and simply thinks that the defensive end of the court is where you rest before going back on offense? Well, maybe, just maybe he'll end his career playing alongside the next generation's version of LeBron in LA.

Cam Whitmore Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 20 27.3 4.7 9.8 .478 1.4 4.2 .343 3.3 5.7 .578 1.7 2.5 .703 0.8 4.5 5.3 0.7 1.4 0.3 1.6 1.7 12.5

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 20 709 122 255 .478 37 108 .343 85 147 .578 45 64 .703 21 117 138 19 37 9 42 44 326

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 20 709 6.9 14.4 .478 2.1 6.1 .343 4.8 8.3 .578 2.5 3.6 .703 7.8 1.1 2.1 0.5 2.4 2.5 18.4

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 26 709 20.5 .571 .551 .424 .251 3.7 20.3 12.1 6.4 3.2 1.6 12.8 25.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 .130 3.7 2.5 6.2
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