Height: 6'7.75"

Weight: 214.8

Wingspan: 6'11.75"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Arizona

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Great Hand Speed
Defensive Rotations
Lateral Speed
Multi-Position Defender
Creates Separation
Fluidity/Bending

Model Output:

Original
4.30
No Impact
7.31
Positional
3.14
Humble
4.43
Pos Humble
6.07
Average
4.64

Film View:

Carter Bryant is a fascinating prospect to watch in that he is mesmerizing to watch on defense and you can immediately picture him as an NBA disruptor defensively, but his offense seems even more raw than pure numbers would indicate.

Offense

Carter Bryant’s offense…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Andrew WigginsMichael Kidd-GilchristJabari Walker

Best Stats:

37% three pointers, 73rd percentile shot up shooting, 87th percentile shooting off dribble, 5.3 DBPM, 2.8% steal rate, 5.8% block rate

While all that glitters is not gold with his shooting as he only hit 69.5% of his free throws, was worse shooting in midrange, and his threes were low volume meaning just a couple more misses would plummet that percentage pretty quickly, you can at least see the inklings above of a good 3 and D wing.  If you can believe that long, switchable 3 and D wing is Bryant’s floor with a possibility of untapped upside, then you start to justify a mid to late lottery pick.

Worst Stats:

16.4% usage rate, 69.5% free throw percentage, 4 three pointers, 31st percentile as P&R ball handler, DNQ for P&R screener, DNQ for Isolation with 0% of possessions

So a couple of items here:

Usage: This is incredibly low. It’s very rare to see non-rim running centers with this type of usage who become successful in the pros.  In fact Bryant is the 5th lowest freshman (or freshman equivalent counting overseas players) in the database.  Other wings include both Ruzic and Powell from this season.  And then Terrance Fereguson, Frank Ntilikina, and slightly higher than Bryant you have Dragan Bender, Kendall Brown, and Caleb Houston.  Again, there is no magic number or one weird trick here, just a red flag.  And it’s not even like he started low and then earned more usage as the season went on, in fact, four of his lowest usage games of the year came in the final 7 games of the season including two games below 10%.

Shooting: We covered some of the positive signs and caveats in his best stats section.  The only real add here is to quantify the impact of a few threes on his percentages given the low volume of shots.  But Bryant just shot 105 threes all season, so while his 37% sounds great, if he just missed 4 more with slightly better defense or the ball bouncing off the rim slightly differently suddenly he is shooting 33%.  Now he did make those shots, so I am not trying to take anything away from his performance, but there is some luck and streakiness in these games and there’s a real chance Bryant’s shooting ability may not be reflected in his three point percentage.

Other Play Types: As stated under “best stats” if Bryant is a switchable 3 and D wing, that’s a great start and even a good result in the late lottery or teens.  But if you are looking for added upside, you are hoping he can grow his offensive repertoire.  So it’s at least worth noting that as of now, Coach Lloyd did not even attempt to have him operate as a screener in the P&R or in isolation at all.  And the few times they had him run the P&R, he was pretty ineffective.  This doesn’t mean he can’t grow, but he’s not starting with the base skills.  They will have to be built.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

First his shot and defense needs to translate.  Then he needs to improve his handles and / or ability to be the ball handler in the pick and roll so he can increase his creation and start creating more offense.  There is a real possibility of the former, but the latter is going to take some time.

Verdict:

Carter Bryant is an interesting prospect in that he’s maybe the first one who has a really funky probability curve for his outcomes, while technically any prospects so far could be a bust and any prospect in the draft has at least say a 1% chance of some outlier development that makes them a star, Bryant both has legitimate say 5%+ star upside where if his defense translates and he can expand his offensive game, he could be one of the better players from this draft.  He also has some very good middling outcomes that scale down nicely where his defense is simply good and his offense is more of a competent floor spacer and he is still a playable 3 and D wing.  But he also has at least a decent chance he’s just relatively low minutes, low usage player who is just not very good.  He’s sort of a very different version of Ace Bailey where in 5 years we could be wondering why so many teams passed on him or he could occupy the end of a team’s bench providing some passable defense while being a complete net negative offensively and struggling with processing.

I do think his defense is good and should translate on at least some level.  He may not be a star defender, but I would be surprised if he wasn’t at least passable.  But right now his offense is just far more raw than I think a lot of people realize.  His shot is still unproven and optimism is based on a good three point percentage from a low volume of attempts (e.g., Marvin Bagley or Kevon Looney syndrome*).  And he is only very opportunistic inside the three point line right now.  Bryant doesn’t really have the ability to create separation, can’t shoot well off the dribble, can’t post up, and is a mixed bag scoring inside.  Overall, he can play in the flow of the offense, but doesn’t have the tools or mindset to impose his will offensively.  So the team that drafts him will have to hope it grows over time, otherwise, his upside might be a tertiary or very opportunistic ball handler who mostly shoots threes and takes advantage of open lanes, which would put a lot more pressure on his defense to be special.

Still, this isn’t a bad gamble, especially as we start to get a bit further back in the draft.  In a normal draft, I’d be very hesitant to pull the trigger until at least the late lottery.  Given the softness of this draft or at least how flat some of the prospects tiers are, I could see pulling the trigger in the 10-18 range.  Though, I have watched drafts long enough to know that these types of prospects to tend to build momentum and it only takes one FO to get obsessed with their upside and tools (and to perhaps have a bit too much optimism about the “skill” they have in development) to pull the trigger even earlier, so it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw him go as high as ~ pick 7-9

* Marvin Bagley was touted by some analysts and Kings brass as a potential shooter (despite being a poor midrange shooter and hitting 63% of his FTs) because he hit 40% of his threes on 58 attempts.  Similarly, Looney hit 41% of his threes on 53 attempts and only 63% of his FTs.  Now in 7 years Bagley has hit 125 total threes shooting 29% and Looney has hit 12 total threes in 10 years while shooting 19% from downtown.

NBA Comp High:

Jerami Grant and Herb Jones Mashup
Jerami Grant and Herb Jones Mashup
If everything breaks right, Bryant has a chance to match Grant's size and offensive growth with Herb Jones All NBA Defensive team play. While it's hard to predict a wing will be good enough to make an All Defensive team, I think Bryant's closer to the Jones side of the equation and I almost just used Jones here. However, Bryant is also 19 and very toolsy. While there's a good chance Bryant is never even as good as Jones, it did feel like it was underselling his potential a bit to cap his offensive production at Herb's level. Hence, I added the mashup and wanted to add Grant in. Jerami might not be an elite offensive player, but he has hit 20+ points per game multiple times in his career. I think it's probably a stretch for Bryant to get here, but if he really does expand his shot and improve his handles, it certainly is possible.

NBA Comp Medium:

Taller Raja Bell
Taller Raja Bell
Bell made two All Defensive teams playing for some elite Suns teams and had some epic playoff showdowns with Kobe Bryant. He also wasn't a slouch offensively and averaged between 10-15 points five times in his career and shot 40% from three. Honestly, this is probably a little bit high for a "middle outcome." But it does feel like a realistic goal for Bryant even if he becomes more of an offensive role player than someone who teams can turn to for stretches.

NBA Comp Low:

Stanley Johnson
Stanley Johnson
It feels like every year there is some toolsy SF/PF who is a late riser up draft boards; Patrick Williams, Taylor Hendricks, Tidjane Salaün have all risen the last few years basically peaking the day of the draft. While it's too early to write most of them off, back in 2015 we had less of a late riser and more of a model for these future risers. Stanley Johnson was coming off a strong year at Arizona and was projected as a potential shut down defender with emerging offensive skills. And it just never happened. He didn't shoot 40% from the field until he was 25 and his peaked with 8.7 points per game. To be fair, he did have a DBPM over 1.0 four times in his career and a fifth year at 0.9. But his offense was just so raw that he was too much of a liability. There is a far greater chance that Bryant winds up in this group that I think people want to admit right now. Maybe closer to 30-40%, even if he winds up somewhere between Johnson and Patrick Williams.

Carter Bryant Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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