Height: 6'6.5"

Weight: 213

Wingspan: 7'2.25"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 21.8

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: Washington St.

Advanced

OBPM: 7.0

DBPM: 2.2

BPM: 9.3

WS/40: .210

Efficiency

TS%: .700

2P%: .710

3P%: .400

FT%: .839

FG%: .557

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Defensive Rotations
Multi-Position Defender
Creates Separation
Handles
Shoot Off The Dribble

Model Output:

Original
2.25
No Impact
7.31
Positional
3.14
Humble
4.43
Pos Humble
6.07
Average
4.64

Film View:

Offense

Cedric Coward was a three-level scorer at the collegiate level, but it’s unlikely he’ll replicate that role in the NBA given his athletic and skill limitations. Coward’s offensive game starts with his shooting. He’s a good spot-up shooter who gets his balance and get…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Robert CovingtonRondae Hollis-JeffersonKelly Oubre

Best Stats:

74% TS%, 40% on threes, 84% FT%

Coward can shoot.  This has been pretty consistent for three years now and I’d be pretty surprised if this skill doesn’t at least somewhat to the NBA, even if the increased speed and length dampens his percentages a bit.  He should at least become a good in-rhythm shooter who can be a catch and shoot threat.

Worst Stats:

2025: Total v. Top 100 ranked teams: BPM: -9.9, Offensive Rating: -43.4, TS%: -28.9%, FTR: -30.8%, Block Rate: -1.9%, 3%: -23.3% 

2024: Total v. Top 100 ranked teams: BPM: -6.3, Offensive Rating: -27.4, TS%: -13.7%, FTR: -8%, Block Rate: -3.5%, 3%: -12.4%

There is no way around this, Coward looked like an All Star against some really low level competition, but does not even look like a draftable player against Top 100 ranked teams.  Admittedly in 2025 that was only 1 of his 6 gams and anyone can have an off game.  But in 2024 it included 7 games.  And in case it’s hard to discern if some of the numbers are still good or bad by looking at the delta in Coward’s performance above, here’s just his numbers against top 100 teams (note, very similar analysis from KenPom).

2025: Performance v Top 100 ranked teams: BPM: -0.2, Offensive Rating: 87.9, TS%: 41.1%, FTR: 20%, Block Rate: 3.2%, 3%: 16.7% 

2024: Performance v Top 100 ranked teams: BPM: 0.9, Offensive Rating: 89.0, TS%: 52.5%, FTR: 23.6%, Block Rate: 0.5%, 3%: 24.1%

So, imagine Coward played in a larger conference and was consistently going against Top 100 teams and not just 8 games in two years, would you be excited for a player with a roughly 0.9 BPM, 89 offensive rating, 53% true shooting, who hit 24% of their three pointers and got to the free throw line less than Egor Demin?

Now Duke wanted him for a reason and he is going to likely be a first round pick, so there is talent here and maybe a different approach and more adaptation to harder competition would have helped Coward, but as of now, it’s hard to ignore this type of performance every time he played against player closer to his own size and skill level.

Or conversely, as much as we pick apart prospects like Asa Newell, Liam McNeeley, and Adou Thiero; imagine if they bot to play 23 games per season against the very worst team on their schedule?  McNeeley had a rough season, but when he got to play the Sacred Heart Pioneers, he had 18-10-2 with a steal on 55% shooting and hit 50% of his threes.  So let’s make sure we are comparing apples to apples when we look at how Coward played against this level of completion at almost 22.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

To have his games against low level competition translate to the NBA instead of his games against top 100 teams.  And then to improve his ball handling and passing ability in order to have more offense run through him.  Also to become a more consistent defender.

Verdict:

Look I realize most of this reads pretty harshly, but I really really do see the 3 and D potential with some upside for more.  Coward has some solid physical traits and some skills he needs to scale up to use against better competition.  It just feels like a situation where this is a somewhat flat draft lacking some of the obvious star level talent other drafts have and that maybe leading some people to wanting Coward to be a legitimate diamond in the rough and they are getting enamored and want star upside. 

And look, I could be wrong, but he’s really going to have to improve his handles, creation, and inside scoring and prove he can do it against much better player.  Coward just played against some very weak competition,  He was regularly playing the types of teams I don’t even watch for other big program prospects.  Like with most prospects I am trying to focus more on games in the second half against legitimate competition, I don’t even waste a lot of time watching them physically dominate lower level competition early in the season.  You just don’t learn much.  And even against the lower level competition, while Coward performed well, he didn’t pop off the screen like when I was watching the Thompson twins play against OTE competition and you couldn’t learn a ton about their skills, but you could tell they were had obscene physical gifts and that Amen in particular had extremely strong feel.

So what does this mean for Coward?  Sure, as the talent thins out, he’s a player who has a decent chance of being a useable role player and becoming the type of switchable, multi-level defensive wing who can shoot and has some added upside.  I think somewhere in the 15-25 range he starts to make a ton of sense.  But don’t be surprised if he just looks a lot more human in the NBA than he did playing against the Portland State Vikings or Eastern Washington Eagles..

 

NBA Comp High:

OG Anunoby
OG Anunoby
So I am being very very generous here. I am quite bearish on Coward hitting this level. But given his size, skills, and athletic profile if everything breaks right, it's certainly possible he has a higher end outcome than some of the other players in his range. While he doesn't quite have OG's athleticism, OG was another big, somewhat stiff wing who had good but not great handles in college. OG has slowly developed and grown not only into a stout defender (as expected based on his college tape), but has also developed into a talented offensive player beyond just his outside shot. And like Coward, OG's college career ended with an injury he had to work his way back from. To be clear, this is probably a Top 5-7% outcome for Coward. I am not betting on this. But I do think it's a realistic top end outcome.

NBA Comp Medium:

Robert Covington
Robert Covington
To be honest, even RoCo feels a bit generous for a middle outcome. However, the two have very similar physical profiles and if Coward can adapt to the higher level of competition, this actually feels like a fairly realistic outcome for him. RoCo was also a bit of an older prospect and was a 23 year old rookie with the Rockets, but has since carved out a 10 year career as a strong defender and shooter with some ability to put the ball on the floor opportunistically. RoCo even made an All NBA Defensive Team and has had a BPM north of 1.0 four times. If Cowards shot translates and he can bring the good parts of his defense while refining some of his technique, he could be the next generation's RoCo.

NBA Comp Low:

Wesley Johnson
Wesley Johnson
So while I think RoCo is achievable, I would be lying if I didn't say there is probably also a better chance that Coward ultimately falls somewhere between RoCo and Johnson than RoCo and OG. Like Coward, Johnson was another small school standout at Iowa St. who then transferred up to Syracuse where he had a strong season against Big East competition and parlayed that into getting David Khan to draft him with the 4th pick ahead of Boogie Cousins, Gordan Hayward, and Paul George.

Cedric Coward Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 6 33.0 5.7 10.2 .557 2.0 5.0 .400 3.7 5.2 .710 4.3 5.2 .839 1.8 5.2 7.0 3.7 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.7 17.7

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 6 198 34 61 .557 12 30 .400 22 31 .710 26 31 .839 11 31 42 22 5 10 13 16 106

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 6 198 6.9 12.3 .557 2.4 6.1 .400 4.4 6.3 .710 5.3 6.3 .839 2.2 6.3 8.5 4.4 1.0 2.0 2.6 3.2 21.4

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 6 198 26.0 .700 .492 .508 7.0 17.2 12.4 20.7 1.4 5.3 14.7 22.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 .210 7.0 2.2 9.3
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