Chet Holmgrem

Height: 7' 0"

Weight: 195

Wingspan: 7' 6"

Position: C

Draft Age: 20.2

Class/Year: F

Advanced

OBPM: 7.5

DBPM: 7.5

BPM: 15.0

WS/40: .294

Efficiency

TS%: .691

2P%: .737

3P%: .390

FT%: .717

FG%: .607

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Model View:

Chet is a bit of a unicorn and of all prospects, there simply aren’t many physically similar players to him.

The number one prospect in 3 of the 5 models and by model average. The models loved Chet’s absurd impact metrics, young age, efficient shooting, elite rebounding, great stock numbers, and that scouts flagged him as a high awareness player. The positional models also loved that scouts flagged him as an elite defender and his solid ratio of steals per personal foul as a center.

Film View:

Chet is an efficient offensive player and an elite college defender that should transition well to the NBA. Offensively, Chet is very well-rounded with all of the core foundational skills – he can shoot, dribble, and pass well for a 7-footer. Chet excels playing off ball, as he shows a lot of potential as a catch and shoot three point threat, though at the moment, more with in-rhythm set shots, though he flashes ability to shoot on the move, which would further expand his game. He also shows great awareness moving without the ball and covers space quickly. Paired with his size and plus touch inside, Chet is a savvy cutter, offensive rebounder, and lob target who punishes defenses for their mistakes / poor rotations. Chet can put the ball on the floor and this should be a great opportunistic weapon for him in the NBA, but struggles a bit in traffic and scoring against stronger / longer players and shooting off the dribble. Chet has the awareness, size to see over the defense, and touch to be a fantastic passing big man and excelled as a passer making smart reads and whether feeding the post, hitting cutters, or passing the ball outside or around the perimeter to shooters.

Defensively, Chet is simply a unicorn. His length, fluidity, high feel, and quick reactions are all highly functional and combine to make him a true disruptor. Chet blocks a ton of shots – as a weak side helper, when players drive on him, and even sometimes contesting shooters. Beyond blocking shots he alters a ton and there were multiple games where legitimate NCAA scorers simply stopped challenging him. Chet has the speed and long strides to close space quickly and challenge jump shooters and help in rotation. And while much is made of his thin frame, Chet is wiry (stronger than he looks) and simply tough. He doesn’t back down from anyone, even if his lack of weight is problematic at times (e.g.,he can be backed down and will not be best served as a starting center guarding Embiid, Valanciunas, etc. early in his career). If I had one concern that many other smart analysts don’t seem to share – Chet has good lateral speed for his size, but in the NCAA was often able to play drop coverage and use his length, closing speed to contest quicker guards and wings. But he could also be beaten at times in space. Chet is nimble enough he won’t be played off the floor like some more lumbering big men, but he could struggle and be less switchable against NBA caliber guards / wings with more quickness and who can shoot more quickly/accurately than their NBA counterparts.

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Bol BolEvan MobleyAleksej Pokusevski

Best Stats:

98th percentile in overall offense & 80th percentile in overall defense (a wonkier stat) as a freshman.15.0 BPM at any age, but especially as a freshman. Beyond box score stats – Chet impacts the game positively.

Worst Stats:

26 total possession of ISO, off screen, hand off, or running P&R – nitpicking here, but picking one of a few metrics showing that there are some very good reasons to believe Chet won’t be an offensive engine, which is really the only reason he’s in the 2nd tier.

Bonus worst stat: 195 pounds – The frame had to come up at some point. Chet is 7-feet tall and weighs 1 pound more entering the league than Devin Vassell & 2 pounds more than Fred VanVleet did. Now, many 20 year olds need to add weight in the NBA, but Chet’s frame is thin and he’s unlikely to fill out the ways players like Giannis or Anthony Davis did. Right now, the discourse is hard because people tend to take extremes of thinking it’s a derailer for his career or simply doesn’t matter. It’s in-between. Chet is tough and should be fine. So long as he doesn’t have to bang with bigger centers, he has the quickness to guard PFs and can be a disruptor a la Evan Mobley or John Collins. But he could get pushed around, hurt, and he may need to play on teams designed around him more so than some other players.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

For him to simply be a star player, I think there’s about a 98% chance his core skills translate, so he should be a fairly safe pick. He can shoot and he can defend. That will be a very valuable NBA player. Now for him to be a superstar and to prove any teams that pass on him wrong, he’ll need to develop a consistent set of offensive moves that allow teams to run an offense through him (maybe a bit more Dirk-like with the posts and step backs). And he needs to have his perimeter defense translate to ensure he can’t be targeted in the playoffs.

Verdict:

Chet has all the makings of a pretty safe star. As alluded to in discussing his frame, there is a sort of new archetype of “disruptors” who are slightly thinner big men who don’t play as traditional centers, but who simply disrupt the other teams offense with their length, quickness, and motors and are modern, efficient offensive players who thrive playing next to talented offensive engines. While not identical impact / skill, I put both Evan Mobley and John Collins in that archetype last season. At a minimum, Chet should make a big impact in the league as a star disruptor. He may drop a bit on draft night if teams decide to prioritize offensive engines as we have seen in the past. But whatever team winds up with Chet, will have landed a very unique and impactful unicorn. And the fans are going to love cheering for him with his unique style of play.

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Chet Holmgrem Player Statistics

Per Game

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	31	26.9	5.3	8.8	.607	1.3	3.3	.390	4.0	5.5	.737	2.2	3.1	.717	1.8	8.1	9.9	1.9	0.8	3.7	1.9	2.7	14.1

Totals

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	31	861	170	280	.607	41	105	.390	129	175	.737	71	99	.717	57	260	317	61	26	117	61	85	452

Per 40 Minutes

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	31	861	7.9	13.0	.607	1.9	4.9	.390	6.0	8.1	.737	3.3	4.6	.717	14.7	2.8	1.2	5.4	2.8	3.9	21.0

Advanced Stats

Season	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
2021-22	32	861	31.3	.691	.680	.375	.354	8.0	28.7	19.6	11.4	1.6	12.6	15.7	21.6	3.3	3.1	6.3	.294	7.5	7.5	15.0

Chet Holmgrem Expert Commentary

November 4th, 2022

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November 4th, 2022

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Chet Holmgrem

Chet Holmgrem

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Advanced Stats

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