Height: 6'7.75"

Weight: 239.2

Wingspan: 7'0.75"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 20.0

Class: Sophomore

League: NCAA

Team: South Carolina

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength
Great Hand Speed
Defensive Rotations
Motor
Passing Vision
Catch & Shoot

Model Output:

Original
7.22
No Impact
11.82
Positional
11.27
Humble
7.87
Pos Humble
8.45
Average
9.33

Film View:

Every year we get a player scouts wishcast into the very hard to achieve Draymond Green archetype and CMB might be the closest I have seen to having a chance to hit that lofty target.

Offense

Murray-Boyles is a smart, physical player who is…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Draymond GreenJeremy SochanKenneth Faried

Best Stats:

22 points per 40, 11.9 BPM, 5.0 DBPM, 1.9 steals + 1.8 blocks + 2.9 oboards per 40, 3.1 assists per 40

CMB is squarely trying to hit the Draymond Green archetype.  The sort of holy grail of undersized big men who are strong defenders, skilled players, and have high feel.  CMB checks a lot of boxes with his defensive numbers, applied athleticism, and passing.

Most interesting perhaps his is scoring.  Draymond peaked at 19.6 points per 40 as a senior (15.5 as a sophomore).  Sochan from a two years ago averaged 14.7 points per 40 though he was only a freshman.  Basically, CMB offers more ability to create and better scoring than some of the other players on this path.  And while I don’t think he will be identical to Green as a player (Draymond is unique and it’s not fair nor smart to project players to hit his level of defensive ability and passing), CMB could still be a good defender and offer a bit more scoring punch than Dray.  Basically, he can carve his own path and doesn’t need to match Green exactly to be a very good player.

Worst Stats:

-1.6% opponents 3 point percentage (on v. off), 27% three point percentage, 71% free throw, 15th percentile catch and shoot

I mentioned above CMB’s odd defense of the three point line it what was otherwise some very good defense.  Well, when digging into Hoop Explorer (and hopefully I am reading it right), South Carolina defends threes better with him off then on the court, despite being worse at virtually every other defensive network.  Nitpicking and potentially noise, but thought worth noting given the film observation.  I am not totally crazy and could be a light red flag given the NBA loves shooting threes.

On the other side of the ball, CMB still struggles shooting threes himself and while his FT percent isn’t bad, it also isn’t great, so this doesn’t feel like a fluke.  Part of Dray’s value when the Warriors were at their peak was his ability to hit 33-39% of his threes.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

For CMB, star has a slightly different meaning than some other players.  He could be a star, but he would be more of a defense-first star.  More in the Ben Wallace and Draymond Green mode of someone who impacts the game significantly with their defense, while also not being completely useless on offense.  Now in CMB’s case, he probably doesn’t hit the defensive ceiling of those two (Wallace in particular who peaked with an absurd 9.1 DWS (the highest of any player since the 1970s and 4th highest player of all time after Bill Russell, Wilt, and Dave Cowens).

But for CMB to be a star, he will first need his defense to translate and like Draymond (and now Sochan) to add some bulk over his first couple of seasons so he can truly guard most NBA big men.  He will also need to improve his shot.  He doesn’t need to be able to shoot on the move or off the dribble, but he needs to be able to hit 33%+ of his in-rhythm three pointers to help spread the floor and open up his drive.  If he can do that while being more of a scorer than some of the other players in this archetype, then even if his defense is very good, but not DPOY level, he can still be a star player next to an offensive superstar.

Verdict:

I really like CMB and given the relative softness of the mid-lottery in this draft, I really debated having him a tier higher.  However, there is a real issue with this Draymond Green archetype, which is that if a player can wind up anywhere within spitting distance of Draymond, even if they are not identical players, it is a very valuable role.  However, what I wrote about Sochan a couple of years ago (when I had him a tier lower than I really wanted to) still rings true:

If his scoring/shooting clicks and simply becomes “passable” he could have a far higher impact than wherever he is drafted.  However, there is some real risk here.  People love to chase the next Draymond Green, but Green has been an elite defender and unique offensive player on a team largely surrounded by All Star offensive talent. But there is a risk that for a player trying to fit that archetype if the defense is only good and the offense doesn’t evolve far enough – their on-court value could be more situational or drop significantly.  I think Sochan has the intelligence, work ethic, and enough skills that I think he finds a way to make it work and I am betting on him.  But the risk to me is a bit higher than guys a tier up like Murray and Daniels whose middling outcomes are a bit safer and easier to plug into diverse lineups.

Basically, if CMB is anywhere near Dray, he’s very valuable.  As you start scaling down his potential outcomes (from defense elite to defense very good to defense good, shooting great to shooting passable to shooting below average, etc.) the floor for this archetype diminishes very severely.  Going back to the write up on say VJ Edgecombe, if he misses his ceiling and just becomes an solid shooter and decent defender, there’s still a lot of value in the NBA for that type of player.  A solid wing can have a 12 year career and start on elite level teams next to other stars.  But if a undersized big man is just a solid defender and mediocre shooter, pretty quickly it becomes hard to have them on the floor at all.  So there is more risk.

So where does that leave us?  I believe in CMB.  I am not projecting him to be Draymond, but I am projecting him to be a likely starter (as he develops) with good upside.  Due to the risk and likely physical development needed the first couple of years, I can’t quite put him a Tier ahead, which would make him a top 5-6 pick.  But in this draft, I do like him in the 7-12 range (although, based on final tiering, someone from Tier 4 like him might end up getting picked at 6).

NBA Comp High:

Draymond Green
Draymond Green
Yup. Every year there is at least one undersized big man who is a good defender with mixed offensive skills who gets compared to the GOAT of the Draymond Green archetype. I am not saying CMB hits exactly Green's ceiling. I mean, it's hard to project an undersized big to win DPOY. But of all the players we have compared to Green, I think CMB is the most impressive to me and the closest to the real thing. They have similar stature coming out of school (CMB is slightly taller, but Green has a slightly longer wingspan). CMB has the chance to be an elite defender who can handle the ball and pass extremely well on offense. And like Green, he felt like a coach on the court communicating and reading and diagnosing players at South Carolina. CMB may not become quite the defender Green is, but he is also a stronger scorer (at least in college) than anyone we have put under the Green archetype, including Green. Even if not a carbon copy, somewhere around Green's level of play would represent a real high end outcome for Murray-Boyles.

NBA Comp Medium:

Jeremy Sochan
Jeremy Sochan
One of the last, relatively decent comparisons to Draymond. I want to be a bit careful here. I normally hate using comps of players who are still developing like Sochan, so this is probably less of an end outcome and more of a middle outcome that is indicative of the growth and development curve that CMB may face. People forget it took Draymond 2 years to contribute and 3 to be really good and this was after he played 4 years at Michigan State. Meanwhile, Sochan also came out after his freshman year and his BPM has gone from -4.0 -> -3.4 -> 1.2 the last three years and has even moved from the starting lineup to the bench a few times. We don't necessarily have a long history of Draymond's to use as a comparison point, so wanted to flag Sochan's development as a realistic path for CMB. He may come in and be up and down as a rookie, a bit too small to guard some of the bigger NBA bigs and switchable, but needing to adjust to NBA speed. Regardless of where he ends up, this is a realistic middle outcome three years into his career. Though I personally bet the over and think he may be on this trajectory, but further along than Sochan as CMB was much better scorer and already had better stats pretty much across the board his freshman season (he was a sophomore this year) than Sochan did his freshman season.

NBA Comp Low:

Chuck Hayes
Chuck Hayes
One of the original undersized centers. Hayes was a good post defender who wasn't a complete liability on the perimeter. He was also a solid passer for a big man. But he could not score outside of the paint and was a career 62% FT shooter. He also couldn't really dribble and wasn't much of a threat to score and averaged 3.7 points per game in his career. No offense to Hayes, who play for 11 years. But this is CMB in the scenario that basically nothing except for some of his defense and passing translates. I am betting the over here. This is probably a bottom 10% outcomes with CMB finishing somewhere more on the current Sochan to Dray spectrum.

Collin Murray-Boyles Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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