Height: 6'9.0"

Weight: 221.0

Wingspan: 7'0.0"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 18.5

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Duke

Advanced

OBPM: 9.7

DBPM: 6.7

BPM: 16.3

WS/40: .296

Efficiency

TS%: .593

2P%: .517

3P%: .385

FT%: .840

FG%: .481

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Three-Level Scorer
Aggressive
Change Of Direction
Motor
Multi-Position Defender

Model Output:

Original
18.47
No Impact
18.93
Positional
21.14
Humble
15.78
Pos Humble
16.83
Average
18.23

Film View:

Cooper Flagg is an all around player and was easily the most impactful player for the best team (sorry Florida)  in the NCAA this year.

Offense

Flagg is a strong straight-line driver with impressive speed for his size, allowing him to attack…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Julius RandleAaron GordonJalen Johnson

Best Stats:

16.3  BPM.

This is the 3rd highest BPM for any freshman in my database (note: BPM only goes back to about 2011).  The only two freshman with higher BPMs were Zion Williamson (20.1) and Anthony Davis (17.2).  Flagg’s ability to impact the game was special.

Note: To be fair, James Wiseman also had a 18, but he only played 3 early non-conference games against South Carolina State, Illinois-Chicago, and Oregon before going out for the season with an injury.  Had he played a full schedule, his BPM likely would have normalized down against tougher competition.

Worst Stats:

44% on twos against Top 50 teams.

Credit to our friends at Barttorvik for this data.  But against top 50 teams, Flagg “struggled” a bit more on his two pointers.  Probably a reflection of how like Paolo Banchero in college, he is good at a lot, but doesn’t necessarily have one dominant go-to move or skill.  He is able to use his combination of athleticism, speed, and strength mixed with a good overall skill level to score, but against better teams, they maybe able to match up or throw some more length at him around the rim making life tougher.  Flagg will need to adjust to this in the NBA.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

Just have his skills translate and continue to build on his skill set.  Lots of research has been done around strength based training and how it is easier to improve on a strength than to develop a weakness.  The good news is he has such a great foundation of strengths, he should be able to turn them into more elite traits over time.  The real question is if he is the true, unquestioned #1 superstar on a championship caliber team or if he eventually becomes an elite #2 sort of where AD settled in playing next to LeBron on the Lakers.

Verdict:

Flagg is one of the best prospects I have ever scouted and one of the most sure-fire stars.  His production and impact in college was elite.  He has virtually every skill you could ask a prospect to have in that he is already a very good shooter, scorer, ball handler, passer, and defender (both individual and team).  And the fact that he was in the 91st percentile of all P&R ball handlers in college last season despite being a 6’9″ is fairly absurd and unprecedented.

Yes, we can sit here and nitpick Flagg.  I wish he had more of a go-to move or skill that would allow him to consistently create offense from day 1, such as Curry’s elite shot or Harden’s handles.  And it’s possible that he’s a bit more like Banchero and Cunningham in that he has a series of 7-24 shooting games over his first few months in the league as he adjusts to the size and length in the NBA.  However, what’s great about Flagg is he has enough well-level skills, elite physical attributes, high-level feel that he should be able to figure out ways to score even early on in his career.  And he’s a complete enough player that even if his shot isn’t falling, he can contribute using his passing, rebounding, and defense.

Dallas has an incredibly easy decisions.  Nico Harrison should sprint to the podium (I’m not even trusting a phone line) and hand Silver the card picking Flagg the second Dallas is on the clock.  He’s who I would take at number one and at a minimum is going to be an All Star caliber player with a significantly higher ceiling.  He should be leading Dallas on deep playoff runs for the next decade and could be a true superstar letting them compete for a title.

NBA Comp High:

Modern Blake Griffin Margarita with Shawn Kemp Salt on the Rim
Modern Blake Griffin Margarita with Shawn Kemp Salt on the Rim
Lots of top picks are unique players. There isn't a single player who best represents Flagg's ceiling, but I think if everything breaks right he can be a superstar that combines the size, relentless energy, and combination of motor, highlight dunks, and athleticism of Blake Griffin with a touch of peak Shawn Kemp's defense sprinkled in as well. To be clear, Flagg isn't quite the uber athlete that Griffin was. But he does have a great mix of size, speed, and athleticism combined with better shooting and the potential to have much better handles. He's also likely to be a better defender. This is where the sprinkle of Shawn Kemp comes in. Another throwback and strong athlete who could protect the rim and move on the perimeter. Flagg will be his own player. But he has a chance to make you squint and see some of the past greats whose games preceded him.

NBA Comp Medium:

Andrei Kirilenko
Andrei Kirilenko
I'll be honest, this isn't my favorite comp I've done and we could easily debate if AK47 or Iggy is actually the medium versus the low. But this happens a lot with the #1 pick, these star level players are often very unique in different ways and there are not a lot of great past comparisons. However, like Flagg, AK47 was a relentless ball of energy who could do everything on the floor. He was a high level offensive and defensive player who could till the stat sheet. He was a consistent DPOY candidate and all around offensive player, who would probably be better utilized and even more of a threat in today's game. He also had 4 straight seasons with a BPM between 5.8 and 9.2 before injuries sapped some of his impact. We can debate Kirilenko v. Iggy, but the point is, unless devastated by injuries, Flagg is going to be very very good even if he doesn't quite hit unquestioned superstar on a championship-level team status.

NBA Comp Low:

Modern Andre Iguodala
Modern Andre Iguodala
Look, Iggy played for so long that it is probably hard for people to conceptualize him as the elite athlete that came out of Arizona and not the NBA "Senior Citizen" who played a pivotal, heady role for some elite Warriors and NBA Final losing Heat teams. But Iggy was a strong, fast, athlete who developed into one of the smartest and best "role players" in the league after leading some pretty good 76er and Nuggets teams to the playoffs. If Flagg is simply more of a "complementary piece" (feels insulting to call Iggy, but he was clearly behind at least Steph and KD right?) on a championship team, then this seems like a pretty reasonable floor. And that is supposed to be more of a compliment to Flagg than underrating or taking a shot at one of the most respected NBA players of my lifetime.

Cooper Flagg Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 37 30.7 6.5 13.4 .481 1.4 3.6 .385 5.1 9.8 .517 4.8 5.8 .840 1.3 6.2 7.5 4.2 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.9 19.2

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 37 1135 239 497 .481 52 135 .385 187 362 .517 179 213 .840 49 228 277 156 52 50 78 70 709

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 37 1135 8.4 17.5 .481 1.8 4.8 .385 6.6 12.8 .517 6.3 7.5 .840 1.7 8.0 9.8 5.5 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.5 25.0

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 37 1135 30.4 .593 .272 .429 5.5 21.2 14.1 26.8 2.8 4.9 11.5 30.9 5.1 3.3 8.4 .296 9.7 6.7 16.3
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