Height: 6'6.5"

Weight: 200.4

Wingspan: 7'0.0"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.8

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: North Carolina

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Change Of Direction
Lateral Speed
Creates Separation
Navigating Screens
Shoot Off The Dribble

Model Output:

Original
3.47
No Impact
2.58
Positional
3.35
Humble
3.90
Pos Humble
3.35
Average
3.33

Film View:

Offense

Drake Powell is a very explosive athlete who thrives when he gets a seam. He can finish with authority off the dribble or on lobs, and he runs hard filling the lane in transition, where he’s a genuine weapon.

Off the ball, he…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Andre RobersonHerbert JonesJames Ennis

Best Stats:

#11 RSCI

Set aside a lot of the other on-court stats.  Drake was a top recruit and the potential is there.  He came onto a team with a lot of other high usage players and it’s very possible he was misused.  I mean, it’s also possible he was raw and not ready for a bigger role.  But we’ve seen guys like Jaden McDaniels at Washington who were high recruits and just did not mesh well with their program, but then shined pretty quickly in the NBA.

Worst Stats:

11.6 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists per 40; 13.8% usage

We can make all the excuses for Drake we want.  At the end of the day, putting up these types of per 40 numbers just isn’t good.  And look, usage isn’t a great stat and has some holes, but that is incredibly low.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

First, Drake needs to prove his game can scale up to higher minutes and that he is not just a low usage mirage and he can scale up the good parts of his game.  Then he needs so smooth out this shooting and refine his defense and processing so that he can at least be a good 3 and D player, with the upside to drive opportunistically and add to the team without taking anything off the table.

Verdict:

Drake is a solid prospect.  I definitely am a bit concerned he is a low usage mirage.  I was too bullish on both Dalen Terry and Kendall Brown.  Despite seeing some of the holes in their game, I did like the building blocks and ignored the fact that they just barely used them.  I don’t want to overcompensate the other direction now.  However, I am a bit more wary of getting drawn in by whisps of talent and performance.

That said, Powell seems pretty underrated right now if public mock drafts are correct.  I think he is definitely a first round pick, not because I think he is great, but because the upside is too high to start picking a bunch of marginal prospects whose ceiling is rotational bench player over him.  If Powell flops, he’s out of the league, but if he gets close to his ceiling, he’s the kind of player who could play a really important role a a solid starter on a good playoff team.  I think there’s a decent chance he at least winds up a solid rotation player off the bench, but with real upside other players in the 20s and early 30s just don’t offer.  So, look, he can struggle just like Pat Williams and Taylor Hendricks so far.  But you are getting him in the 20s or 30s and not at 4-6.

And probably obvious from the prior paragraph, but that’s where I’d have Powell too.  I’d be most comfortable with him somewhere in the late first round.  Say in the 25-30 range, though again, with the flat nature of this draft, it wouldn’t surprise me if he went a bit sooner.

NBA Comp High:

High-Low: James Posey, Pat Williams, Kendall Brown
High-Low: James Posey, Pat Williams, Kendall Brown
The upshot for Powell if he can put everything together is someone like James Posey who even had a BPM north of 3 and was twice in the top 13 for DPOY and twice in the top 16 for 6th Man of the Year. He was sort one of the original 3 and D players that people talked about when that term started to get popular. If not, he could be an athletic and sort of useful player like Williams. Admittedly Pat could still become more useful as he ages, but at this point, it's unlikely to be on the Bulls and hard to say their front office (since fired) would consider his pick a win. And finally, he could be Brown, who I gave a first round grade to (like in the teens), fell to the late 2nd round, and has mostly been developing in the G-League. The odds here are for the later two and also there is technically a higher path for Powell if he really grew by leaps and bounds. But I think this is a pretty realistic range of outcomes. And worthy of a late first round pick.

Drake Powell Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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