Height: 6'5.75"

Weight: 213.2

Wingspan: 6'10.5"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.3

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Rutgers

Advanced

OBPM: 7.0

DBPM: 2.1

BPM: 9.2

WS/40: .166

Efficiency

TS%: .587

2P%: .574

3P%: .333

FT%: .750

FG%: .484

Strengths & Development Areas:

Stops On A Dime
Three-Level Scorer
Balance
Handles
Hangtime
Navigating Screens

Model Output:

Original
3.09
No Impact
5.89
Positional
8.46
Humble
7.55
Pos Humble
8
Average
6.60

Film View:

Dylan Harper had a tremendous season on a pretty mediocre Rutgers team, but shined offensively while leaving some questions about his upside as a two-way player.

Offense

Dylan Harper brings a well-developed handle to the game, showcasing a wide array of advanced dribble moves….

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

James HardenMalcolm BrogdonJohnny Juzang

Best Stats:

70% scoring at the rim with only 17.6% assisted.

Harper is definitely a player where we can nitpick some of his production or delve into his microskills and question which parts will and won’t work at the NBA level.  However, it’s pretty clear that even on a mediocre team with suspect spacing and defenses shadowing him, he was able to be one of the most efficient inside scorers in the class.  Some players just “have it.”  Harper may not be the most explosive athlete, but he just finds ways to score and he has the width, strength, and touch to be inside and create angles to score efficiently.

Worst Stats:

2.1 point drop in BPM, 8% drop in two point percentage, and 3.4% drop in three point percentage versus Top 50 teams; 31% FG% on two pointers not at the rim

Again, thank you to Barttorvik for the data.  Harper was just much less efficient in his 14 games against high quality teams.  I don’t want to overreact to this as his team was bad and he was far from a disaster against them.  But it does bring some of the red flags on film a bit more front and center and raise some questions about if parts of his game won’t translate as well to the NBA.

 

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

His scoring needs to translate and he needs to decrease his tunnel vision and cut down on his turnovers.  He also needs to become at least passable defensively, but if he is an offensive star, there is at least some more leeway here.\

If Harper is going to be a star and not just a starter, he needs to be able to score efficiently without pounding the ball and he needs to be able to feel the pressure and get the ball to his teammates.  Now, his teammates were pretty poor at Rutgers (outside of Ace perhaps).  So maybe he felt more pressure to create.  In the NBA surrounded by better talent, maybe it improves, but that can be a dangerous assumption.

Verdict:

I have Harper as my number two pick and the only player in my second tier.  With that said, I think he’ll be a good player, but I probably am a bit lower on him than some of the other sites and analysts out there.  There seems to be a real energy around him being the next James Harden, especially the closer we get to the draft as people tend to get excited about prospects and imagine the best outcomes for them.  But Harden was more athletic and I just think more polished overall with a more elite jump shot.

I tend to see Harper as closer to another Maxey than possessing the superstar traits of Harden, but even that would be a great outcome, even if it’s not what Spurs fans are fantasizing about with the #2 pick.  Harper can score and I believe will be able to score well in the NBA, especially with better spacing and surrounded by NBA talent.  But to really be a true superstar, he need to have more of an elite skill to lean on.  And I don’t know that his shooting, feel, athleticism, speed, etc. is there.  Perhaps you could argue his handles could get there.  But most NBA teams do not want to build around one player pounding the ball and eating up clock.

With that said, he was very efficient running the P&R this year even with his limited supporting cast (82nd percentile on 30% of his possessions via Synergy) and that is a skill that should translate to the NBA.  He is already a good shooter and as he is able to transition his diet of three pointers to more catch and shoot threes and slowly improve his ability to shoot them off the dribble, he should become a very good offensive player and even a potential All Star.  While fans want to dream of every draft pick becoming Harden, Curry, or Jokic, I think is Harper can land somewhere on the spectrum from Maxey to Jalen Williams, that would be a great outcome for the 2nd pick and would set the Spurs up nicely for the future.

That said, as you start to scale down his potential offensive outcomes from Superstar to All Star to Plus Starter, it becomes even more important that he commit himself to playing better defense.  He has the physical gifts to at least become an average defender and he is not a true superstar that you build your team around to cover his weaknesses, he will need to lock in more defensively to not diminish his offensive value the way a player like a Zach LaVine does where he’s very valuable when he’s on fire, but less so when he’s having worse night scoring.

NBA Comp High:

Jalen Williams
Jalen Williams
James Harden is the trendy pick for Harper's high end, but Harden was a special talent and I think a noticeably better athlete than Harper and had an extremely strong development curve that his hard to predict for other prospects. However, watching Harper's film, I was struck by a sense of Deja Vu from watching Williams' film a couple of years ago. Especially offensively, they both had a very similar cadence and were able to use change of pace and advanced handles to breakdown defenses better than you would have anticipated and score at a high clip. If Harper's shot translates as well as his ability to score inside, he could be very similar to Williams' offensively, even if he is more of a secondary option than the best player on an elite team. The swing skill here would be Harper's defense. Williams surprised me with how well he's defended in the NBA. If Harper can do the same, this would be a great high end outcome for Harper. The two are very similar physically (at the point they entered the draft) with the downside for Harper being that Williams has about 4 inches of wingspan on him that might be helping his defense a lot.

NBA Comp Medium:

Jumbo Tyrese Maxey
Jumbo Tyrese Maxey
Add about 3 inches and 15 pounds to Tyrese Maxey and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a very similar type of player. Very strong shooter and interior scorer (with Harper having a bit more upside there) who is also a solid creator for others and at least a passable defender. I realize Maxey might not be the greatest aspiration for the #2 pick in the draft. But he has already made an All Star game by 24 and is certainly the kind of building block a team like the Spurs (or whatever team drafts him) could use to add to their foundation.

NBA Comp Low:

Bennedict Mathurin
Bennedict Mathurin
So what is the short really never proves to be quite as reliable as we would have hoped? And the inside scoring becomes harder against NBA defenders and the defense is simply ok? How about a rotation player who is coming off the bench for a Pacers team in the finals, but who might be able to start for some other teams. To be fair, as someone who scouted Mathurin and flagged his struggled scoring inside and some of the other issues limiting him now, I think Harper is a better prospect and I would definitely bet the over here. But this is at least a reasonable floor if things break poorly.

Dylan Harper Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 28 32.6 6.7 13.8 .484 1.7 5.2 .333 5.0 8.7 .574 4.3 5.8 .750 0.8 3.8 4.6 4.0 1.4 0.6 2.4 1.9 19.4

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 28 945 194 401 .484 50 150 .333 144 251 .574 126 168 .750 22 111 133 117 42 17 70 56 564

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 28 945 8.2 17.0 .484 2.1 6.3 .333 6.1 10.6 .574 5.3 7.1 .750 0.9 4.7 5.6 5.0 1.8 0.7 3.0 2.4 23.9

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 29 945 24.6 .587 .374 .419 2.6 13.5 8.0 27.1 2.6 1.9 12.7 29.0 3.0 0.9 3.9 .166 7.0 2.1 9.2
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