Jabari Smith

Model View:

The models loved Jabari Smith Jr and have him as the #2 prospect in this draft with outcomes ranging from Plus Starter with All Star Potential to Superstar.  The models love his impact metrics, high stocks (steals + blocks), strength of schedule, age, true shooting percentage, and scoring output.  The positional models also loved his height and outside shooting for a PF.

Best Stats:

94th percentile on spot up shooting at volume, 85th percentile shooting off the dribble as a 6’10” PF, and 57% true shooting on 28% usage as an 18 year old – all ways of saying, he’s an absurdly efficient shooter for any size, but especially with his physical traits.

28.9% – I looked at outside shooting gravity of the different teams net of select draft prospects (i.e., the team’s three point shooting percentage minus the makes and attempts by the prospect) – Jabari Smith Jr. had the lowest outside shooting surrounding him of not only the major creators I looked at this year, but historic examples of players with little help like Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, and Tyrese Haliburton.  Now some of that maybe his fault (he didn’t collapse the defense driving to create better looks), but there’s a good chance he benefits from better NBA spacing.

Worst Stats:

48th percentile scoring around basket – for someone likely to be a top 2 pick, you would like to see more proficiency creating and scoring inside; 2.8 assists v. 2.6 TOs per 40 – this isn’t bad for a PF, but again, nitpicking, as you would like to see better for a player you would love to be the focal point of your offense.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

To be a star, he mostly needs to have his shot and defense translate to the NBA.  To be a superstar, you would love to see Smith Jr. improve his handles, inside scoring, and creation for others.

Verdict:

Smith Jr. is a bit of a rarer archetype and one that may take a bit more scheming to have as a team’s offensive engine.  He’s a player more in the KD / Rashard Lewis mold, who is going to create gravity and dominate games with absurd shooting displays, but who may not put as much pressure on the rim or create for others, compared to traditional superstars of the same caliber as those players.  This also leads to a bit of a narrower path towards being a true number 1 option, but even if Smith Jr. becomes more Lewis / Porter Jr. than Durant, his abilities as a shooter and defender make him a very safe pick that still brings legitimate superstar upside. This is not a Cade / LeBron draft with a clear cut number 1 pick. While I flagged Banchero as my generic #1 pick, Smith Jr. would make more sense at #1 for some teams.  Who I actually picked would depend what team I was picking for, which has not been the case the last few years.