Jabari Smith

Height: 6' 10"

Weight: 210

Wingspan: 7' 1"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 19.1

Class: F

Advanced

OBPM: 7.4

DBPM: 3.8

BPM: 11.1

WS/40: .227

Efficiency

TS%: .570

2P%: .435

3P%: .420

FT%: .799

FG%: .429

Player Statistics

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Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength

Grab And Go Threat

Great Roll Man

Avoids Contact

Low Defensive Versatility

Turnover Prone

Model Output:

Original

8.3

No Impact

9.2

Positional

12.7

Humble

10.3

Pos Humble

13.3

Average

10.8

Model View:

The models loved Jabari Smith Jr and have him as the #2 prospect in this draft with outcomes ranging from Plus Starter with All Star Potential to Superstar. The models love his impact metrics, high stocks (steals + blocks), strength of schedule, age, true shooting percentage, and scoring output. The positional models also loved his height and outside shooting for a PF.

Film View:

Jabari Smith Jr is a strong two-way weapon. His offensive arsenal is not the most diversified, but he’s an absolutely lethal shooter, which becomes almost unstoppable with his length and ability to create separation for his jumper. Smith Jr. can shoot both set shots, on the move, and off the dribble. He has a pretty sophisticated set of moves to get to his shot, including step backs, side steps, and an absurd mid-range fadeaway. Smith is also a very good athlete, especially with a head of steam whose strong coordination and footwork make him dangerous on ball and off ball. Unfortunately (or fortunately for opposing defenses) the rest of his offensive arsenal is less developed. Smith is not especially fluid and can be a bit stiff trying to score inside. He doesn’t have very strong handles and doesn’t have an explosive first step – so he typically relies on straight line-drives of taking 2-3 dribbles and trying to get to his jumper. He has some ability in the post, but again, relies heavily on is fade away. Smith is a willing passer and shows some nascent ability (and has the height to see passing lanes), but given he creates more gravity than pressure on the defense, he doesn’t collapse the defense and create a ton of looks for others. He also doesn’t show a lot of live dribble passing yet.

Defensively, Smith Jr. is a long, mobile defender with good awareness. He hustles on defense, closes out, and clearly takes a lot of pride in his defense for a player who carries such a heavy offensive load. He has decent hands and anticipation, but doesn’t quite have the explosion or anticipation players like Vassell did as prospects. Smith Jr. is a versatile, multi-position and multi-level defender who can guard wings and bigs and will be a perfect fit for modern NBA schemes. Though similar to his offense, Smith can be a bit stiff coming out of his stance, changing directions against quicker guards, and navigating screens at times – nothing “fatal” but nitpicks that relatively minor limitations for a strong defensive prospect.

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Michael PorterPaul ReedFranz Wagner

Best Stats:

94th percentile on spot up shooting at volume, 85th percentile shooting off the dribble as a 6’10” PF, and 57% true shooting on 28% usage as an 18 year old – all ways of saying, he’s an absurdly efficient shooter for any size, but especially with his physical traits.

28.9% – I looked at outside shooting gravity of the different teams net of select draft prospects (i.e., the team’s three point shooting percentage minus the makes and attempts by the prospect) – Jabari Smith Jr. had the lowest outside shooting surrounding him of not only the major creators I looked at this year, but historic examples of players with little help like Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, and Tyrese Haliburton. Now some of that maybe his fault (he didn’t collapse the defense driving to create better looks), but there’s a good chance he benefits from better NBA spacing.

Worst Stats:

48th percentile scoring around basket – for someone likely to be a top 2 pick, you would like to see more proficiency creating and scoring inside; 2.8 assists v. 2.6 TOs per 40 – this isn’t bad for a PF, but again, nitpicking, as you would like to see better for a player you would love to be the focal point of your offense.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

To be a star, he mostly needs to have his shot and defense translate to the NBA. To be a superstar, you would love to see Smith Jr. improve his handles, inside scoring, and creation for others.

Verdict:

Smith Jr. is a bit of a rarer archetype and one that may take a bit more scheming to have as a team’s offensive engine. He’s a player more in the KD / Rashard Lewis mold, who is going to create gravity and dominate games with absurd shooting displays, but who may not put as much pressure on the rim or create for others, compared to traditional superstars of the same caliber as those players. This also leads to a bit of a narrower path towards being a true number 1 option, but even if Smith Jr. becomes more Lewis / Porter Jr. than Durant, his abilities as a shooter and defender make him a very safe pick that still brings legitimate superstar upside. This is not a Cade / LeBron draft with a clear cut number 1 pick. While I flagged Banchero as my generic #1 pick, Smith Jr. would make more sense at #1 for some teams. Who I actually picked would depend what team I was picking for, which has not been the case the last few years.

NBA Comp High:

Poor Man's Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant was an absurd scorer in college and was much better scoring inside than Smith Jr. I think he also had more functional athleticism, which will be hard for Smith Jr. to replicate. But Smith Jr. still has a ceiling where he’s a team’s number one offensive option and a strong defender and is the next generation’s version of a very unique, potentially irreplicable player.

NBA Comp Medium:

Rashard Lewis with better defense

Arguably, this is just a different description of the high end outcome. Lewis at his peak, was arguably a top 20 to 30 NBA player and a mediocre defender (positive DBPM in only 5 of 16 seasons). If Smith can replicate his offense (even 90%) with better defense, that’s an enormous weapon for a team.

NBA Comp Low:

Healthy Michael Porter Jr.

I struggle to see a floor for Smith Jr. where he doesn’t at least replicate the career that Porter Jr has had so far as a strong secondary offensive weapon and great shooter with passable defense. Again, I am betting the over here.

Jabari Smith Player Statistics

Per Game

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	34	28.8	5.4	12.6	.429	2.3	5.5	.420	3.1	7.0	.435	3.9	4.8	.799	0.9	6.5	7.4	2.0	1.1	1.0	1.9	2.1	16.9

Totals

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	34	978	183	427	.429	79	188	.420	104	239	.435	131	164	.799	32	220	252	68	37	35	63	70	576

Per 40 Minutes

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	34	978	7.5	17.5	.429	3.2	7.7	.420	4.3	9.8	.435	5.4	6.7	.799	10.3	2.8	1.5	1.4	2.6	2.9	23.6

Advanced Stats

Season	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
2021-22	34	978	25.1	.570	.521	.440	.384	3.5	23.5	13.6	14.0	2.1	3.8	11.1	27.6	3.2	2.3	5.6	.227	7.4	3.8	11.1

Jabari Smith Expert Commentary

November 8th, 2022

Jabari is the GOAT

May 10th, 2023

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Jabari Smith

Jabari Smith

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Model Output:

Original

No Impact

Positional

Humble

Pos Humble

Average

Film View:

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

NBA Comp High:

NBA Comp Medium:

NBA Comp Low:

Per Game

Totals

Per 40 Minutes

Advanced Stats

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