Jarace Walker

Jarace Walker offers some interesting offensive upside, but with enough flaws that it’s fair to question how high his offensive ceiling will be in the NBA.  Walker’s core strengths take place playing more off ball, but spreading the floor with his catch and shoot ability and at least in theory servine as a screener in the P&R.  Walker is a solid shooter for his size and shoots well when he is in rhythm, displaying a pretty quick release and solid form, though he can be a bit ridgid with some inconsistent form / landing, especially when rushed.  These issues are exacerbated when he is rushed or tries to shoot off the dribble.  Ditto with movement shooting, which is probably why while he is not a stationary player on the perimeter, he doesn’t move a ton, which contrasts a lot with his motor on defense.  He has the strength and wide shoulders to set effective screens.  And at least in theory should be strong as a roll man, but there were very few instances of him actually rolling, he typically popped to the three point line both after hard screens and slipping screens.  It’s unclear if this was caused by Houston’s offense or by design to maximize his strengths (and negate his weaknesses).  Walker is also a strong, physical offensive rebounder, who creates extra possessions with his effort.

On-ball, Walker has solid handles for a big man and loves to mix in crossovers and hesitation moves, but he tends to make a quick move to get into a straight line drive and doesn’t have a lot of shake or elusivity.  He also has a habit of settling for midrange jumpers, which are not especially accurate.  This also manifests in the post, where he is willing to play physically and use his strength, but then has a tendency to settle for getting to his spin move and half hook even when he seems to have a real advantage.  These issues also manifest when he drives or tries to score off a pass inside.  While Walker is a good athlete who can throw down a powerful dunk, when his momentum is stopped or there is congestion in the lane, he becomes much more human.  Walker isn’t especially explosive or fluid and doesn’t have great body control in traffic.  His touch inside is also fine, but not great and he misses some shots you would love to see someone his size hit (especially a lottery pick).  This is compounded by the fact that he is extremely right hand dominant, and force up floaters and layups with his right hand on plays where he very clearly should be using his left, which will be even harder to get away with in the NBA.  Finally, he again, shows a bit of a tendency to settle for his floater or driving into players, as opposed to using his body and frame / strength to create good angles and separation to get his shot off inside.  On a positive note, Walker shows some good, naescent abilities as a passer.  Not only is he an unselfish player and willing passer, but he had a few nifty no look or behind the back passes and plays where he anticipated player movement and threw some accurate, well timed passes.  Combined with his low turnover rate (mostly losing the ball dribbling or traveling when he starts to drive from the perimeter), this is an area that could blossom in the NBA, especially as a short roll passer or opportunistic playmaker when the defense if off balance.

Ok, so if Walker is such a mixed bag offensively, why is he a potential lottery pick?  Defensively he is an absolute stud who is a joy to watch.  Walker isn’t the faster or most explosive player, but he possesses a few key traits that unlock his defensive game.  First, Walker’s length, strength, motor, and high defensive awareness make him an extremely disruptive help defender.  He is like a shark, always hunting and moving defensively, and using strong timing and his long arms to block a lot of shots in help defense and to get into passing lanes or strip ball handlers.  Watching Walker on defense gave me flashbacks to Dyson Daniels film last season, where you could see him go from guarding his man, to tagging a rolling big man to stop an easy score, and then rotating out to a different shooter or jumping into the passing lane if the ball handler tried to throw the ball to the player Walker was originally covering.  Additionally, Walker really is a two-level defender who can also guard the perimeter either in rotation or isolation.  Walker has good lateral speed, rarely bites on fakes, has broad shoulders that make it harder for players to get outside of his body, and is extremely strong stopping and starting his movement and changing direction.  He shows a strong ability to close out and then immediately move his feet and stay with the player if he tries to drive.  This also helps him to handle and strontly contest countermoves, such as crossovers and stepbacks by guards and wings making it hard for them to gain an advantage.  This paired with Walkers strong defensive instincts, make him a strong P&R partner; who can hedge, trap, or switch depending on the situation.  And the few times a player tried just driving into Walker and trying to use their body or forearm to create space, it did not end very well for them.  If I had to nitpick, Walker is a bit susceptible to speedy guards who can make a quick move and drive past him.  And while his strength, length, and motor translate well into defending the post, he could be pushed back some by bigger players, so while he can likely defend centers opportunistically in the NBA, he’s probably at least a few years away from playing much small ball center.