Height: 6'1.75"

Weight: 178.4

Wingspan: 6'6"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 18.7

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Michigan State

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Stops On A Dime
Balance
Catch & Shoot
Shoot Off The Dribble
Creates Separation
Handles

Model Output:

Original
8.74
No Impact
11.99
Positional
7.98
Humble
8.83
Pos Humble
12.76
Average
10.06

Film View:

Jase is an all around talented player, but one where the tape leaves you wondering exactly where he stands out and how high his ceiling is.

Offense

Jase Richardson projects as a savvy off-ball scorer with a smooth stroke and a polished feel for finding space.

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Toney DouglasPatrick BeverleyMario Chalmers

Best Stats:

11.6 BPM, 62% True Shooting, The Entire Synergy Statistics graphic above this

So earlier I mentioned Flagg’s BPM being the 3rd highest ever (since 2011) of a freshman prospect?  Well, Jase’s is tied for 17th highest.  And of those only 4 are non-big men (Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic [adjusted BPM], Lonzo Ball, and D’Angelo Russell).  Now a high BPM for a freshman guard or wing is no guarantee of success, Zhaire Smith had a 10.8 in 2018, Ben McLemore had a 10.5 in 2013, and Michael Carter-Williams had a 9.4 in 2013.  But overall young guards up this high have had good careers.

Similarly, 62% true shooting is pretty phenomenal.  While TS% is a bit more wonky given it’s not always fair to compare players with different roles and usage rates, Jase has the 6th highest TS% of freshman guards and wings behind Kyrie, Lonzo Ball, Darius Garland, BMac, Kon, and AJ Griffin.  Again, even setting aside Griffin and his knee issues, this isn’t a guarantee of success, as we see players like BMac, Jerryd Bayless, Frank Jackson, and Xavier Henry in the top 20, but still a pretty good list.

Finally, I won’t go line by line, but Jase basically excelled at all play types except for isolation.  And he was 95th percentile in catch and shoot and 72nd in shooting off the dribble.

Worst Stats:

6’1.75″, 178.4, 6’6″

This is just small.  There’s not a lot of history of PGs who weren’t very talented primary or very close secondary ball handlers who exceled with those measurements.  And many of those who did were either extremely fast or were elite level athletes.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

A growth spurt would help.  But barring that, we maybe getting to the place where it’s less about being a superstar and more about a blue print to a potential All Star birth.  And for that, Jase would need to have his shooting translate and become a much better ball handler, improve his ability to drive right, and remain a plus defensive player at the NBA level.

Verdict:

This really is a true, old school Moneyball battle.  My eyes keep going back to the film and how most of it really wasn’t super impressive to me.  But virtually all of the data is in Jase’s corner.  And not just the models, which can certainly be wrong (as I think they are with Sorber who we’ll touch on later), but everything.  I initially was a bit more negative on Jase, but this is one where the data made me revisit him and I’ve sort of revised my projections of him up.  And like with Moneyball, maybe this turns out to be more of a Jeremy Brown situation than a Kevin Youkilis, but I still prefer to err on the side of high feel, high skill players.

So let’s start with the clear limitations here, I really struggle to see the characteristics you would want in a primary ball handler without truly outlier development.  In fact, it’s not entirely clear that he has the ideal physical or skill characteristics of a true secondary ball handler.  However, as an overall off ball weapon, whether a lower tier secondary ball handler or tertiary ball handler, it’s very easy to see how he can carve out a role in the NBA.  He’s a smart player, great catch and shoot player with potential for more, good defender, capable ball handler, and threat to create offense opportunistically.  He’s mostly just a very smart, fundamentally sound player who will make the right plays, shoot and create gravity, and play defense.  And there is real value in that and is the type of glue guy you see on a lot playoff rosters. And at some point in the draft, that is a good win and any additional upside becomes icing on the cake.

Furthermore, after the Thunder lost to the Warriors and their old Durant-Westbrook team fell apart, I read Presti was basically over more one-dimension role players (at least in critical rotation roles) who could make your offense or defense more predictable.  And if you look at how he’s build the new roster, basically every single top 7-8 player can shoot, drive, pass, and defend.  They are not elite at all of those skills, but there are no more Andre Robersons or Kendrick Perkins who teams can scheme around.  Jase fits that mold to a tee.  Even if he is not a star, he adds a lot to the table (including potentially great shooting) without taking anything off).

So I’m in again.  Still don’t want to reach and take Jase too high.  But in that 8-14 range, he seems like a great fit.  Very solid role player likely to have a long career whether as a starter or key bench player.  And with some upside that maybe that 11.6 BPM was a sign that our eyes and concerns over size are wrong.

NBA Comp High:

Derrick White
Derrick White
All of the things I love about Richardson and my reservations lead me to the question, who could he become? I think another player who is only slightly taller and longer is Derrick White. White has never been and probably should not be the top option on a team. You can even debate if he'd really be a great 2nd option or even a 3rd one you had to rely on if your goal was to win a championship. However, every team that has had White has been better for it. He can shoot, pass, drive, defender and is one of the hardest playing and highest feel "role players" in the NBA. He finds ways to blend in seamlessly and will play any role he is asked. And it's not as if he's a shabby player either. He's averaged double figure scoring 8 times, over 4 assists per game 4 times, and had a BPM over 1.0 seven times and over 3.0 twice. Oh yeah, and he has an NBA Championship and another NBA Finals appearance. I think this is a pretty realistic path for Jase that both reflects the limitations of his game and physical gifts, but also his superb analytics, feel, and overall skill set.

NBA Comp Medium:

George Hill
George Hill
Hill has about an inch on Richardson, but otherwise, this feels like a pretty realistic outcome for Richardson. Hill is an all around solid player who has played in the league for 15 years and been a part of some championship caliber teams (and the Vlade era Sacramento Kings). He finished highly in 6th man of the year voting 3 times and has averaged 10-3-3 and shot 38% from three across his career and finished with a BPM north of 2 five times (peaking at 5.3 in 2015). Feels like a realistic goal for Richardson. Would be a good career and would fit if he's can translate his college game into a career as a high feel player with no real weaknesses, but no standout strengths either. While that may sound a bit insulting, it isn't meant that way, more so it describes a number of important role players and George Hill had a strong career that would surpass most late lottery picks.

NBA Comp Low:

Seth Curry
Seth Curry
So what if Richardson is a strong shooter who can put the ball on the floor a bit, but his lack of overall handles, inside finishing, and size and speed limitations just lead to him being a smart and skilled player who is a bit more on the fringe? How about the son of another NBA players. Sadly, not that Curry, the other one. Still a nice long career. But a much more limited impact.

Jase Richardson Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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