Height: 6'3.75"

Weight: 179.6

Wingspan: 6'5.25"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 18.7

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Oklahoma

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Creates Separation
Handles
Speed
Low Defensive Versatility
Thin Frame
Inside Touch

Model Output:

Original
2.41
No Impact
6.58
Positional
4.31
Humble
6.09
Pos Humble
5.99
Average
5.07

Film View:

Jeremiah Fears is an elite ball handler and gifted scorer, who still leaves some real questions about his efficiency and ability to defend at the next level.

Offense

Jeremiah Fears is a shifty, skilled guard who plays with extreme confidence.  Fears possesses possibly the…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Darius GarlandDe’Aaron FoxRamon Sessions

Best Stats:

3.1% steal rate, 31.5 usage rate, 58th percentile P&R Ball Handler on 35% of his possessions, 69th percentile Isolation, 85% FT%. 46% on “other two pointers” (not at the rim) with 7% assisted

Aside from the steal rate, there is a bit of a picture being painted here.  Fears took on tremendous usage and creation last season and while some of the finishing numbers do not stand out as elite, they are at least solid given the extremely high volume.  It just feels like there is something here.

 

Worst Stats:

1.2 A/T, 28% on threes, 179.6 pounds, 35th percentile total offense, 5.9 BPM

For a player who pops so much on film, you’d love to see some more impact on, well, pretty much anything.  Give me some elite scoring, shooting, impact on the game.  I mean, I realize Oklahoma wasn’t stacked with NBA prospects like Duke, but it’s not a wasteland either.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

Fears does have actual star potential.  But he needs to score more efficiently and get do a better job of cutting down on turnovers.  I don’t think he’ll ever be an elite defender, but if he can add some strength, he can at least be passable or good enough that the team is crafted around him and another star to help cover for that.

Verdict:

I really want to like Fears more than I do.  I am always asking myself, what is it that gives a player a competitive edge that can allow them to consistently create or be elite at another NBA skill.  And in Fears case his speed and ball handling is good enough that he should be able to create consistent advantages.  I also think that his free throw and interior shooting is good enough that his outside shot will come around.  This seems to give Fears the opportunity to be a lead guard and a top two player on at least a playoff team, which seems really valuable.

On the other hand, exactly how far can a team go if Fears is one of their lead guard?  And if they suddenly need to have another superstar or two, do you really want an undersized guard with a thin frame who lacks defensive versatility on that team instead of a more stout defender and off-ball player?

Maybe.  But I’d also wager that these are problems you can try to solve for once you are a playoff team and need to adapt.  Afterall, the Celtics won with IT and then traded him for Kyrie when they felt their team had peaked.  The Cavs flipped Colin Sexton and Lauri to the Jazz for Donovan Mitchell.  At some point, there is just limited overall talent in the NBA and so you need to draft for value and then figure the rest out.  What wins is constantly changing.  Ultimately, build up your talent and asset base.

With that said, I think Fears belongs somewhere in that 6-14 range of this draft.  He very well may flop and turn out worse than some of the players taken after him.  Or be another Colin Sexton type player who is good at basketball and can put up some fine numbers, but is just undersized and not quite good enough offensively to really carry a team without being surrounded by a pretty perfect supporting cast.

But there are only so many players who have his gifts and ability to create for themselves and potentially serve as the lead guard for a franchise.  At some point, as a flailing franchise in the lottery, especially in a small to mid-market, you need to take some chances instead of focusing on safe, marginal improvements.  Fears makes for a nice swing and at least has a bit of a rarified skillset and ability to consistently create advantages that gives him a chance to be special.

NBA Comp High:

Taller Isaiah Thomas
Taller Isaiah Thomas
Sometimes you watch a player and it's almost uncanny how much they remind you of someone you grew up watching. Fears swagger, ball skills, and absolute grit and toughness on defense despite his smaller stature and narrower frame made me feel like I was watching IT again. Before injuries sapped some of his ability, IT was a multiple time All Star and All NBA 2nd team player who finished 5th in MVP voting as he peaked with a 6.7 BPM as the best player on a 53 win Celtics team that lost to the LeBron Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. I'm dubious Fears gets here, but it certainly represents a reasonable ceiling. One that would require his outside shot improves and translates, he could become a deadly midrange player, and he continues to develop his playmaking and ability to play off ball.

You could also add D'Aaron Fox here. They have very similar dimensions coming out of college and even share some (thought not all) of the same strengths and challenges entering the league.

NBA Comp Medium:

Poor Man's (?) Monta Ellis
Poor Man's (?) Monta Ellis
Monta is arguably a bit high for a medium outcome, but he does represent the type of player Fears can be and the level of talent he has. He also represents the conundrum that is Jeremiah Fears NBA value. If Fears is a lighting quick, talented on-ball player like Monta, who is very good but not really good enough to be a top player on a championship team, where does that leave you. Monta played 12 NBA seasons and is remembered as a talented and fearless scorer (over 20ppg five times), but he also made 0 All Star games, peaked with his two best seasons being a 1.6 and 0.8 BPM, and spent most of his career as one of the two best players on under .500 teams. There is a real danger with someone like Fears he could sort of be fools gold, good enough to put up some stats and be a leader of a mediocre team that peters out with maybe a first round playoff exit.

NBA Comp Low:

Jerryd Bayless
Jerryd Bayless
I am 100% taking the over here. But don't let Bayless' decent, but lower level NBA career fool you, he was a dynamite NCAA player who was a lottery pick coming out of Arizona thanks to his speed, playmaking, and scoring ability. In the NBA, he just was a bit too inefficient and played too one dimensionally and couldn't translate his speed into a consistent advantage. I think Fears performs better, but if he never develops his midrange game or solves his interior scoring struggles, he could be more limited rotation player like Bayless.

Jeremiah Fears Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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