Height: 6'6.0"

Weight: 205.2

Wingspan: 6'7.75"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.1

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Illinois

Advanced

OBPM: 4.0

DBPM: 2.6

BPM: 6.6

WS/40: .141

Efficiency

TS%: .590

2P%: .562

3P%: .318

FT%: .845

FG%: .440

Strengths & Development Areas:

Footwork
Passing Accuracy
Passing Vision
Change Of Direction
Creates Separation
Run & Jump

Model Output:

Original
5.91
No Impact
8.77
Positional
7.83
Humble
6.42
Pos Humble
6.32
Average
7.05

Film View:

Jakucionis is a talented, but imperfect, offensive player who has a lot of struggles on the defensive side of the ball.

Offense

As a scorer, Jakucionis operates almost entirely below the rim. He has decently wide shoulders and has a decent build for his…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Spencer DinwiddieAaron HarrisonGreivis Vasquez

Best Stats:

59% true shooting, 56% on two pointers, 84.5% FTs, 63rd percentile Shooting off the dribble, 24% usage

Ok put in usage, but think it’s a bit misleading as usage is not a perfect stat and Jakucionis had the ball in his hands a lot.  And despite that, he shot very efficiently.  His three point percent was a bit low, but he took some high degree of difficulty shots and given his FT%, I think there is a lot of room for improvement in the NBA.

 

Worst Stats:

6.6 BPM, 34% shooting on threes not at the rim, 43rd percentile P&R ball handler

Given the talent on Illinois, you’d hope the person leading them could have driven higher impact.  Additionally, you maybe some better midrange shooting or efficiency in the P&R given he will likely need to use that as his primary play type in the NBA (if he’s going to be more than an off ball player who drives very opportunistically).  Particularly because his center (Ivisic) was a 2nd round draft candidate who was a good roll man and could shoot threes and run the pick and pop, so you’d hope this would help open things up for Jakucionis.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

His shot needs to translate with him making better decisions for his shot selection and hitting a higher percentage of his threes.  Also he needs to improve his ball handling to cut down on turnovers and get into fewer situations where he ends up forcing bad shots or passes.  He also needs to play at least passable defense.

Verdict:

I’ve gone back and forth on Jakucionis quite a bit, but ultimately, this is one time where the models and I sort of just agree.  I don’t really see Kasparas as a star level player, but his athleticism is sort of good enough and his shooting and passing are both too good for him to not carve out a role in the league.  The ball handling is a concern, but it’s already good enough that it feels like an area he can improve.  And if his role scales down a bit from focus point of an offense to secondary or tertiary ball handler, then he won’t have to force as many plays and some of those mistakes won’t happen.

I think we’ve also just seen enough of these sort of high feel, high skill players carve out a role in the league, where I am a bit more inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt. He clearly has a nice mix of skills along with good height and strength.  He should be useful as a secondary or tertiary weapon.  Hard to see him not being able to carve out a role like Spencer Dinwiddie, Brandin Podziemski, or Donte DiVincenzo has done.

So he’s not a bad gamble, your floor here is someone who can shoot, pass, handle the ball, and has good size and strength for defense while not being a complete statue.  And there is upside, if he can greatly improve his shooting (or it turns out the forearm injury really held him back) and becomes a real weapon off the dribble, while improving his handles and cutting down on mistakes.  Even if he’s never a true star, you can imagine a good high end outcome and even a potential All Star game or two if everything breaks right.  And plenty of middling outcomes that still make for a useful NBA player even if they don’t.

My biggest concern and only real pause is his defense.  He carried enough of the offensive load that I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but Dayvion McKnight of Xavier averages 12 points per 40 and was just running past him in the NCAA first round without even setting him up or using a screen or any countermoves.  He’s going to have to learn to defend better or else even if he’s a plus offensively, he’s going to wind up like Greivis Vásquez and be someone who struggles to crack 20mpg.

Overall, he should have an NBA role and has upside to grow and contribute.  He might actually be the type of player who with his size and strength fits better into an NBA defensive scheme than NCAA.   And frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being another one of these high feel, high skill players who people underestimate in favor of pursuing high end athletes.

In a normal draft, I feel like I’d prefer to take Jakucionis in the 7-12 range, but given how this draft is shaping up, I think 6-10 is probably makes more sense.

NBA Comp High:

Goran Dragic
Goran Dragic
The Dragon was an NBA All Star who even had one All NBA 3rd team appearance during his peak season with the Suns. He was at best sort of a passable defender, but was the focal point of a Suns team that won 48 games and still didn't make the playoffs (perhaps at the height of the East / West imbalance). Needless to say a team with him as their best player had a bit of a ceiling, but he was later a 6th man of the year candidate for a Heat team that made the Finals before losing to the Lakers in 6 games. If Jakucionis can continue to develop his shooting and playmaking, it sort of feels like his is a reasonable ceiling. The best player on a ceiling capped team or a very good player who can play a supporting role on a contending team (doesn't need to be off the bench, Dragic was 33 on that Heat team).

NBA Comp Medium:

Spencer Dinwiddie
Spencer Dinwiddie
Dinwiddie feels like a reasonable middle outcomes for Jakucionis or really any mid to late lottery pick. High feel guard who has some physical limitations and is at best a sort of passable to slightly below passable defensive player, but who can shoot (thought think Jakucionis can be better than Dinwiddie here) and is a good passer. Dinwiddie was able to put up his best counting stats playing for a couple of post-Nets teams rebuilding in the wake of the Durant-Harden-Irving era, but settled into more of a 6th man role with the Lakers and Mavericks the last couple of seasons. Most years he's somewhere between a 0.5 and 1.0 BPM. This feels like a very realistic scenario for Jakucionis.

NBA Comp Low:

Greivis Vásquez
Greivis Vásquez
General Greivis certainly had some offensive talent. He had several years with an OBPM between 1.1-1.6. His problem is one that could really hurt Jakucionis in floor scenario, which is that he could not guard anyone. Greivis was a -0.9 to a -2.9 DBPM every season he played more than 3 games. He did not have great lateral speed and was just lost on that end of the floor. Given what we saw at Illinois, I am hoping Jakucionis can be better defensively, but it he can't improve enough to avoid being hunted, this is a realistic bottom outcome.

Kasparas Jakucionis Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 33 31.8 4.5 10.3 .440 1.6 5.2 .318 2.9 5.1 .562 4.3 5.1 .845 1.4 4.3 5.7 4.7 0.9 0.3 3.7 2.7 15.0

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 33 1051 149 339 .440 54 170 .318 95 169 .562 142 168 .845 46 142 188 156 29 9 123 88 494

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 33 1051 5.7 12.9 .440 2.1 6.5 .318 3.6 6.4 .562 5.4 6.4 .845 1.8 5.4 7.2 5.9 1.1 0.3 4.7 3.3 18.8

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 33 1051 17.4 .590 .501 .496 4.9 13.6 9.5 26.0 1.5 0.8 22.7 24.2 2.2 1.5 3.7 .141 4.0 2.6 6.6
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