Height: 7'2"

Weight: 252.8

Wingspan: 7'6.75"

Position: C

Draft Age: 18.8

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Duke

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Hands
Motor
Rim Protection
Catch & Shoot
Handles
Passing Accuracy

Model Output:

Original
9.90
No Impact
11.08
Positional
8.60
Humble
9.51
Pos Humble
7.74
Average
9.36

Film View:

Maluach’s is a gifted defensive prospect, who is just extremely raw on offense.

Offense

Khaman Maluach’s offensive game is raw but efficient, with his value today built almost entirely around his size, motor, and finishing ability.  One of Maluach’s best traits is his activity…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Mark WilliamsDeAndre JordanJames Wiseman

Best Stats:

9.9 BPM, 74% true shooting, 77% free throw, 88th percentile on Cuts, 99th percentile P&R man, 91st percentile in transition, 7’6.75″ wingspan

We can and will talk a lot about what Maluach cannot do and the relative importance of his role in the NBA.  That said, there is a lot he does well that directly translates.  He can cut, screen, and roll and is a huge target with great hands and the power to dunk and finish.

He also did hit 77% of his free throws, which gives at least some hope that maybe in the future he can hit some open, in-rhythm shots though he did only shoot 2 free throws per game, so the percentage is pretty volatile.

Worst Stats:

0.6% steal rate

Lots of people will talk about his lower block rate, but I think that comes up with a bit more experience.  He jumps at some shots he shouldn’t now and takes some big swings.  But he is also a little stiff and has a high center of gravity.  There is no “one weird trick” statistic; however, steal rate can be a good indicator of athleticism, reaction time, and ability to change direction quickly as big man.  Big men around this mark (0/7% or less) who went pro include Tacko Fall, Luke Cornett, Kofi Cockburn, Jock Landale, Hunter Dickinson, Charles Bassey, Jordan Bachynski, Jay Huff, Drew Timme, Isaac Haas, and Nick Richards.  Christian Wood did have one season at this level, but was 1.5% the season before.

Now a couple more steals and Maluach gets up to a level that includes Lauri and Myles Turner.  So again, this isn’t a killer stat.  But it is a bit of a red flag given some of his other challenges.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

The further back we get in the draft, ceiling maybe less of a traditional superstar, but to be an All Star Maluach needs his base skills to translate and to start as an elite rim runner and defender.  Then he needs to at least make his ability to dribble and pass… passable.  And really a lot will depend on the defense.  If he is a legitimate annual DPOY candidate he can be a regular All Star as a center in the vein of Rudy Gobert who doesn’t offer a to extra on offense (he is 0-17 in his career on threes and peaked at 2.0 assists per game in 2019).  If Maluach is just a plus defender, then he better greatly expand his offense.

Verdict:

So this is one case there the model and I at least somewhat disagree.  On the one hand, sure, I can see Maluach being a starter.  But I also see a lot more risk and do not see him as a top 4 prospect in this draft class.  In fact, given where you are finding him in my rankings you can probably guess I am a lot cooler on him than most draft analysts and if you believe the rumors most NBA GMs  If all I wanted to do was cover my tail, I’d move him up just to try to not look foolish, but this is about trying to get to get the draft right.  So here’s why I am cooler on Maluach.

First, I just don’t think the archetype of rim running big is that valuable.  There’s a ton and you can snag them in free agency or the draft pretty easily.  And so I prefer to roll the dice on other positions early in the draft.  I just don’t really want to invest a top 10 pick into a guy who dunks and protects, but doesn’t do much else.  I believe the lack of offensive versatility comes at a higher cost than I think some other people do.  I think there’s a reason that other than Gobert (a legitimate DPOY candidate), no other deep playoff teams were giving big minutes to a player like this.  Even the Knicks were happy to get Mitchell Robinson back, but he was a net negative and his minutes quickly dried up.

Second, while people like to think of Maluach as safe, I think there are some legitimate questions about what translates.  Sure he will dunk and protect the rim to a degree.  However, he shows no dribbling or passing ability.  He had 0 short roll assists.  Maybe that part of his game grows, but it’s very limiting to have a screener who can only dunk the ball and can’t pop or catch the ball on a short roll and either drive or pass.  It just makes the offense far more predictable.  While I think Maluach’s lower block numbers improve as his timing does, I do worry about his low steal numbers and how stiff he plays.  And I do notice how he struggled a bit more scrambling and dealing with stretch bigs.  I think Maluach will at least be solid, but there are some real question marks for a lottery pick.

Third, I just wonder how much the other skills can improve.  If he’s not a DPOY candidate, then he needs to more than just screen and roll or stand in the dunker spot.  But his shooting form isn’t great and he was 17th percentile in catch and shoot despite playing on a Duke team with perfect spacing and getting some wide open shots.  He didn’t even register enough attempts for shooting off the dribble to get a percentile.  And his dribbling and passing are rough.  I just feel like I have seen this story before with guys like Bamba, Garuba, Biyombo, etc.  The defensive upside is tantalizing, but it’s hard to offer so little on offense.  People will point out that Maluach has only been playing basketball for four years, but that’s been true about a lot of players and most do not develop significantly.  Some like Siakam do, but even from Siakam’s freshman year he had a good base of skills and just needed time for them to grow.  Maluach doesn’t have a base, he needs to develop completely new skill.  Certainly not impossible given his age, but I think much more difficult than most people realize.

This also takes us to one final draft principle, one advantage we have as draft analysts is we can identify a great prospect and 6 years from now if they are thriving we can pat ourselves on the back and take credit for a great evaluation.  But NBA GMs don’t have that luxury.  If a player takes several years to develop they maybe out of a job or the player might be on his 2nd or 3rd team.  If a player is traded for a mediocre return and then thrives 2-3 teams later, that may assuage the GM’s ego a bit, but it does nothing to actually help him or the team that drafted him.

So where does that leave us?  Maluach has value and could be a very good defender.  He also has some question marks and might be an offensive liability who takes 3-4 years to start to pay any real dividends and might be on his 2nd or 3rd team.  I see the role he can play pretty quickly, but unless he’s on a bad team that doesn’t mind wasting a year just developing players and winning 25 games, Maluanch might be a very situational player for awhile.  No doubt he can come in and have some big games just like most rim running bigs who get thrown to the wolves.  But I think he is going to be a very limited player for awhile.

I’d prefer to take him in the 15-20 range.  I can understand in this draft, I might be convinced to take him late lottery.  But I struggle to get behind using a top 5-10 pick on him.

NBA Comp High:

DeAndre Jordan
DeAndre Jordan
A lot of people are using Gobert as the high end. However, Gobert is really an outlier in terms of his development and becoming an annual DPOY candidate. I get why the comp happens, but there are certain players who just had amazing leaps in skill development and production that I hate using them as comps.

Perhaps more realistic is Jordan. Now, I think Jordan was a better athlete at his peak. The simple truth is there are not a lot of great comparisons. Jordan is the last player of this archetype other than Gobert to make the All Star game and this is back in 2017. But Jordan did slowly grow his passing ability over time. He was never much of a shooter, but he did make 2 NBA All Defensive teams and 3 All NBA Teams. I think this would be a great outcome for Maluach.

NBA Comp Medium:

Mark Williams
Mark Williams
Having scouted Williams a few years ago, I am genuinely trying to rack my brain and figure out what is so different about Maluach to make him a more special prospect. Their measurements are nearly identical. They were both very young. Their statistical profile (even if you take Williams freshman year and not sophomore year) are very similar, although Williams had a higher block and steal rate. They had near identical impact stats as freshman (Williams was higher as a sophomore, but that's expected). The only real areas you would favor Maluach would be he had a higher FT% and Maluach has better lateral speed on the perimeter.

So not saying the comparison is perfect. But I am also not seeing enough daylight between the two to understand why one fell to 15 and the other is being discussed as a top 7 pick. Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if Maluach ended up as a similar or slightly better player than Williams. Nothing wrong with this. Williams looks like a legitimate NBA player who if he can stay healthy will have a 10 year career.

NBA Comp Low:

Samuel Dalembert
Samuel Dalembert
Dalembert was an interesting NBA staple for awhile. A big shot blocker with some mobility. But someone who was otherwise pretty raw offensively. He ultimately averaged 0.5 assists to 1.4 turnovers for his career and only had a positive BPM 2 of his 13 years. If Maluach can't develop his ancillary skills and is a good shot blocker and solid defender who can't contribute much else. This is a pretty realistic floor for him.

Khaman Maluach Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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