Paolo Banchero

Height: 6'10"

Weight: 250

Wingspan: ~7’0.5”

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 19.6

Class/Year: 2022

Advanced

OBPM: 5.4

DBPM: 2.3

BPM: 7.7

WS/40: .191

Efficiency

TS%: .557

2P%: .525

3P%: .338

FT%: .729

FG%: .478

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Model View:

The models generally rated Paolo well, which I think is a good sign for him. Big men who enter college as heavy usage, primary ball handlers tend to struggle a bit more than guards – usually due to a bit less polish on their handles and passing. So players like Cade and Paolo tend to be well-regarded by the models, but generally are a bit underrated. But overall, the models love Paolo’s impact metrics, age, SOS, and solid number of steals and blocks. The positional models love his scoring, passing, steals and shooting ability for a PF. And the humble models love that scouts have him as a top 3 pick.

Film View:

Banchero is a versatile offensive weapon who is one of the few, legitimate three level scorers in this draft. He has the speed and handles to drive by most big men and the size to punish smaller players (or even some bigger ones) inside with his strength and post-moves and already thrives shooting from mid-range. He has solid handles and shows some creativity (for a big, but will not be confused with Harden), though he’ll benefit significantly by further tightening his handle. Banchero has nice touch around the basket with either hand and enough bend and fluidity that when paired with his size and strength, make him very difficult to stop inside (whether he gets there driving or posting). Banchero is also a plus shooter with the ability to pull up from mid-range or to start driving and pretty quickly stop and fade into a shot if the defender is trying to prevent him from getting to the basket. Banchero can also shoot from the outside, although, at this stage he is better as a catch and shoot threat, than shooting off the dribble or off step-back threes (his three point shot even in catch and shoot is a bit slow and loses some accuracy when sped up).

While Banchero is adept at getting his own points, he also shows a lot of promise as a creator and distributor running an offense. Banchero is an unselfish and heady player who makes good decisions and shows the ability to run an efficient offense. He has the height and vision to see passing angles and for a player his age does a good job of balancing his own scoring and creating for others. He’s not the most advanced passer and can continue to hone his live dribble passing and accuracy, but he’s a strong enough creator that he’s a threat even making solid reads. Banchero is good in the halfcourt, but is also a solid rebounder who is a strong grab-and-go threat pushing the pace after misses.

Banchero’s defense is a mixed bag. Like a lot of heavy usage, collegiate offensive stars, Bancher’s defensive effort waxes and wanes. At times he’s overly-reliant on his physical skills and closes out half-heartedly or loses shooters. When he’s locked-in, Banchero has good lateral speed and can change directions quickly for a player his size and his blend of size and strength allows him to defend the perimeter well and hold his position inside (or absorb contact from driving wings). And while he is not a pure shot blocker, he does have the length to provide some added congestion inside. Banchero will need to improve his overall defensive effort and do a better job with his off-ball awareness and defending the pick and roll, but he has the tools to be a good defender if he wants to be.

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Rich Man’s Lamar OdomRegular Lamar OdomJumbo Billy Owens

Best Stats:

21 points per 40 and 1.3 A/T as a big man, 28% usage as a freshman, 250 pounds of weight that is largely mussel and is healthy for his physique, 77th percentile catch and shoot suggests he can be effective without dominating the ball every possession

Worst Stats:

7.7 BPM / 15.7 net rating, while good for a freshman, you’d love to see a bit higher for a clear cut #1 pick, 44th and 59th percentile for his top two possession types (spot up & ISO) [note: Cade was 87th percentile in ISO last year)

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

Right now, I think both the tape, metrics, and Synergy statistics suggest Paolo is good at almost every skill, but not great at any of them. So you would have to believe he can improve enough to execute his shooting, driving, and/or post ups at an elite level to be a top 20 player. In terms of his key swing skills: shooting and defense will be two keys for Paolo to become great.

Verdict:

If I had the #1 pick for a generic team this season, I would be selecting Banchero, as I think he has the best opportunity to become the true, rare offensive engine that teams covet. I will admit, this is very close and a legitimate coin flip with Smith, but Banchero is a very bright, high awareness player who shows at least an emerging high-level of skill across essentially every offensive and defensive skillset you could ask for. And while his physical tools are not at quite the elite level of LeBron or Giannis, his blend of size, speed, and strength will be tough for even NBA players to stop. If I had to nitpick, I am always asking myself how a player (especially at the top of the draft) will be able to create consistent advantages in the NBA and I tend to feel better about a prospect if they have an elite skill/trait. I don’t fully see that with Banchero. He is very good at a lot. And I think the aforementioned size/speed/skill will be enough, but he doesn’t have an elite skill like Curry or Harden did, he’s high awareness but not quite elite like CP3 or Doncic, and he doesn’t quite have the elite physical tools of a LeBron or Giannis. Without that skill / trait to fall back on, we have seen some prospects struggle to acclimate (like Killian Hayes). I’m willing to place my bet on his continued development and his physical traits / skill level / awareness allowing him to thrive. But I also acknowledge there is risk here and I think his rookie season could be very uneven (a bit like Cade where he looks like an All Star one night and shoots 6-17 with more turnovers than assists the next)

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Paolo Banchero Player Statistics

Per Game

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	39	33.0	6.3	13.2	.478	1.1	3.3	.338	5.2	9.8	.525	3.5	4.8	.729	1.7	6.1	7.8	3.2	1.1	0.9	2.4	1.9	17.2

Totals

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	39	1286	245	513	.478	44	130	.338	201	383	.525	137	188	.729	68	236	304	124	41	36	92	75	671

Per 40 Minutes

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	39	1286	7.6	16.0	.478	1.4	4.0	.338	6.3	11.9	.525	4.3	5.8	.729	9.5	3.9	1.3	1.1	2.9	2.3	20.9

Advanced Stats

Season	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
2021-22	39	1286	24.2	.557	.520	.253	.366	6.4	19.1	13.2	17.5	1.9	2.7	13.3	27.5	4.0	2.2	6.1	.191	5.4	2.3	7.7

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Paolo Banchero

Paolo Banchero

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Per 40 Minutes

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