Height: 6'9.5"

Weight: 232.4

Wingspan: 7'5.25"

Position: PF/C

Draft Age: 20.9

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: St. Josephs

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Lateral Speed
Motor
Speed
Handles
Inside Touch
Passing Accuracy

Model Output:

Original
4.01
No Impact
5.58
Positional
4.66
Humble
5.41
Pos Humble
6.24
Average
5.18

Film View:

Offense

Fleming plays with a high motor and excellent quickness, especially for a PF / C. He’s at his best using his speed to quickly transition between perimeter actions, screens, cuts, and crashing the glass. He’s particularly fast transitioning dribble handoffs (DHOs) and on-ball screens…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Ekpe UdohCedric SimmonsLarry Sanders

Best Stats:

71st percentile P&R man, 79th percentile catch and shoot, 90th percentile in transition, 95th percentile cutting

We can debate how much upside Fleming has.  But if he can provide spacing and gravity with his catch and shoot ability and can stretch the floor vertically with strong play in transition, on cuts, and impactful rolls of the P&R screen< he can establish a roll and carve out playing time.

Worst Stats:

143rd SOS, 0 ranked teams, DNQ shots off the dribble, 33% of possessions spotting up, 0.8 A/T

So a couple of items here.  First, St. Joseph’s strength of schedule was pretty poor.  They did not face one ranked team all year, only 3 in the top 50, and so Fleming was basically a junior beating up on overmatched competition.  While not fair to pin on Fleming, it would have been nice if they made the tournament and we got to see him play 1-2 games at least against ranked teams.

Second, while you can see the base skills Fleming has to establish a potential roll in the league, there’s not a ton else to build on.  He didn’t really even try to shoot off the dribble much.  He had some success with other types of players, but largely settled for spot up shooting.  And while not a death knell by any means, I would have loved for a versatile PF/C like Fleming to have an A/T north of 1.0 at this stage, given his age and the level of competition he is playing against.  I am concerned he’s going to play sped up and wild in the NBA and turn the ball over too much if he tries to do more than shoot open threes and dunk.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

I’m dubious on star potential, but for his ceiling, Fleming needs his shot and rebounding the translate.  He needs to refine his approach so he can use his defensive tools to be a multi-position and multi-level defender who can play in very switchable schemes.  And he needs to improve his handle and his decision making off the bounce to cut down on turnovers and be a threat to score when he’ chased off the line.

Verdict:

Meh. This is a situation where the models and I tend to agree.  I can see Fleming carving out a decent career as mostly a rotation player off the bench with some potential to start some games a la JaMychal Green.  Depending on where he is drafted, he may find himself starting by default if it’s a mediocre team.  I do think he has some tools that are interesting.  But ultimately, I think most of his offense is pretty shaky and there are some defensive question marks about how and who he defends.  I think it’s a bit easy to get enamored with tape of him containing some players who won’t even be in a decent FIBA league post-graduation.  But his struggled defending bigger, better players and even marginal NBA prospects raises at least some light red flags.

That said, if he is another JaMychal Green, I don’t know exactly how high you want to draft him.  I sort of have a running joke when I hear other analysts and friends around the league compare a player to someone like Tres Lyles or Green, “why do you need to draft and hope to develop Green, when you could literally go and sign him for almost the same price as the rookie deal?”

Now Fleming has some added upside.  I really don’t mean to be too harsh on him.  Switchable players can be valuable.  And he has some tools, such as his shooting that could be further developed.  But ultimately, he’s the sort of player I would prefer to draft in the mid to late 20s.  Any sooner than that and I think there are either some safter players with potentially more valuable roles or higher upside swings I’d prefer to take.  Again, especially for small market teams, the draft is really the one place you can snag some real talent that can be a step-change for the organization without massively overpaying or praying you can rip another GM off.  So at a certain point, I’d rather be a bit more ambitious than hope I am drafting someone who can be a rotation guy off my bench or maybe a low level starter if I get lucky.  But for teams in the 20s who are competing for a title, sometimes getting a cost-controlled rotation player that allows you to pay your stars is a win.

NBA Comp High:

New Age Kenneth Faried
New Age Kenneth Faried
For Fleming's high end outcome, it was hard not to pick a player who could match his relentless motor and who wasn't just a similar ball of pure energy. The Manimal was was a fan favorite who always gave 110% on the court and who had a really productive career until the NBA evolved a bit (and some back injuries) wound down his career a bit quickly. However, he still averaged 11-8 for his career and peaked closer to 14-9 and had a BPM north of 1.0 three times and a positive BPM five times. I think if Fleming's energy, rebounding, and defense translate, he can also carve out an 8-12 year career with a long stretch serving as a starter. I also think he can be a more modern version of Faried and at least be a passable in-rhythm shooter (Faried hit 10 threes total in his 8 year career) so I added the New Age modifier.

NBA Comp Medium:

Better Defensive (?) JaMychal Green
Better Defensive (?) JaMychal Green
I think more of a middling outcome for Rasheer would be someone like Green, who does not match his pure energy, but does give a model for a big man who can shoot and is decently mobile on the wings, but just doesn't have an all around game. Green has made a career spacing the floor and being able to do a decent job guarding down low while not being a liability on the perimeter. However, he also is at best a functional ball handler and not much of a passer. But that's been good enough for him to average 20mpg across 544 games (166 starting) in 9 years. I think Fleming might be able to be a slightly better defender. I think he has somewhat better tools, but it's also not clear that he is, especially given the level of competition he faced (0 ranked teams this season).

NBA Comp Low:

Thon Maker
Thon Maker
Know who else was a high energy big man, who could shoot the basketball, the #9 pick in the infamous 2016 draft. Maker did play 5 years in the league, but his shooting and relentless motor just never really translated into production. We are at a point in the draft, where some of these low end outcomes just have a very low floor. I would love to see Fleming succeed, but there's a real chance he follows an arc more like Thon's (or for some of the prospects in this range, they will be out of the league even faster then 5 seasons).

Rasheer Fleming Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Per 36 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS
2021-22
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