Height: 6'5.25"

Weight: 193.2

Wingspan: 6'7.5"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.9

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Baylor

Advanced

OBPM: 7.1

DBPM: 4.3

BPM: 11.4

WS/40: .178

Efficiency

TS%: .552

2P%: .500

3P%: .340

FT%: .782

FG%: .436

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Great Hand Speed
Change Of Direction
Motor
Run & Jump
Post Defense

Model Output:

Original
4.72
No Impact
8.52
Positional
8.87
Humble
7.71
Pos Humble
8.35
Average
7.63

Film View:

VJ Edgecombe is a sensational athlete with a solid level of base skills, but areas that he still needs to develop if he wants to be an All Star in the NBA.

Offense

VJ Edgecombe is a fast, aggressive downhill slasher who thrives…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

RJ HamptonMarcus SmartKeon Johnson

Best Stats:

11.3 BPM, 4.3 DBPM, 3.8% steal rate, 2.3% block rate.

There will be lots of debate about VJ’s upside.  However, when you have a player with good positional size who can play defense and shoot, it’s hard to imagine you aren’t at least drafting a long time starter.

Worst Stats:

43rd percentile P&R ball handler, 40th percentile Isolation, 21st percentile shooting off the dribble

Edgecombe’s synergy stats in general leave something to be desired, but probably are not as dire as they may look to someone seeing this guide for the first time.  Freshman with a high volume of usage of certain play types can have more 60-70th percentile outcomes compared to older players using fewer possessions.  That said, if VJ is going to be a star player, he is going to need to be more efficient running the P&R and creating in isolation.  Not sure how you give him the ball at the end of games when you need a bucket if his plan is to try to run past or run into the defender.

To be a bit fair to him, the big men on Baylor (Hubbard, Omier) were basically non-shooters, constantly rolling into his space. I would love to see him play with a pick and pop option that would help clear space for him.  He did have some nice pick and pop plays with his wings. He would also be well suited to a 5 Out NBA style offense. 

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

VJ has the tools to be a good starter and player.  But to be a star, he’s going to need to find a way to consistently create offense that extends beyond “be faster and more athletic” than my defender and then bump them or try to contort in the key.  Either he’s going to need to increase the danger of his jumper or further develop his handles and counter-moves.  Additionally, adding more midrange game will help significantly.  He will also need to add strength so that he can guard up and not get overwhelmed by some of the increasingly jumbo wings and SF/PF hybrids.

Verdict:

I feel pretty confident that VJ has a pretty safe floor and will become at least a solid NBA player.  He should be at least an average if not a plus defender.  He is already a solid catch and shoot player and I think that will improve over the next couple of seasons.  He can also dribble and pass, so he’s not someone who will get chased off the floor in the playoffs.  But the real question is can he develop the requisite skills to hit a higher ceiling?  And even if he does, how long does it take him and does he do it for the team that drafts him or his 2nd or 3rd team?

This is why I have kept flipping him between the 2nd and 3rd tier..  On the one hand, he has phenomenal physical gifts and the upside is there.  You could make an argument his floor might be safter than Harper’s and his ceiling could be just as high.  But while there is no “one weird trick” to draft evaluation and I take the Synergy stats with a huge grain of salt, reviewing those again are why I am inclined to have him a tier below Harper (note: he is currently in Tier 3, but I could move him up before the draft and might forget to change this text).  I think Harper has reasons he might not reach his ceiling, but he has a good base of skills he can grow into stardom (or at least All Stardom).  VJ has the skills to be an NBA player, but really struggles at the types of skills you would want to see from someone you might hand the keys to the offense too.  This doesn’t mean he can’t grow and fix them, but there is just more inherent risk that he maybe more of a role playing starter who is at his best when he can pick his spots than a true number one or even two option.

So where does that leave us?  I personally can’t see taking VJ over Harper (and I did toy with that idea in my head for awhile).  However, I’d be very happy to draft Edgecombe at 3-4 and would be ecstatic if he fell to 5-6.  And I can’t picture a world where he drops any lower unless stories drop about him throwing Diddy-style boat parties.

NBA Comp High:

Victor Oladipo
Victor Oladipo
There is a reason so many places have come up with this comp, Oladipo was older and a bit more developed coming out of the draft, but this really is the right archetype for VJ's upside. Athletic, scoring guard who is also a very good defender. I will say, given how Oladipo's career ended after some injuries, but at his peak, Oladipo was 13th in MVP voting and on the All NBA 3rd team and All Defensive 1st team with a 5.8 BPM. Edgecombe would need to add strength, increase his ability to create consistent advantages, and improve his overall defense. But this is a realistic ceiling for him.

NBA Comp Medium:

Jalen Suggs
Jalen Suggs
There's a decent chance that VJ could have a career very similar to what Suggs has done so far (Suggs is still only 24, so far from developing). Four years into his Suggs' career he's been a really good complementary piece to Banchero in Orlando. He's a high end defender who can shoot and drive opportunistically, while playing off of another star player. He's already made an All Defensive 2nd team and is an important core of one of the better young teams in the NBA. If VJ doesn't develop the consistent ability to create with his handles or midrange game to open more paths to the basket, he could still settle in next to a more traditional offensive engine and use his other skills to add tremendous value to his team.

NBA Comp Low:

Jaden Ivey (So Far)
Jaden Ivey (So Far)
Like with Suggs, Ivey is still young. Ivey is 23 and hopefully still ascending. But he does paint a bit of a warning for what a team drafting VJ could endure over the next three seasons if VJ takes more time to adapt his skills to the NBA and is still more athlete than consistent creator and shooter at the start of his career. Ivey took three years to finally break even with a 0.0 BPM. The Pistons arguably played even better with other players better complementing Cade after Ivey stopped playing. I still have hope for Ivey. But it's been a rollercoaster first few seasons. And VJ could ride a similar rollercoaster if he struggles to create consistent good looks and his defense is average at best.

V.J. Edgecombe Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 33 32.7 5.0 11.5 .436 1.6 4.6 .340 3.5 6.9 .500 3.4 4.3 .782 2.0 3.6 5.6 3.2 2.1 0.6 1.9 2.5 15.0

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 33 1080 166 381 .436 52 153 .340 114 228 .500 111 142 .782 67 118 185 106 68 20 64 84 495

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 33 1080 6.1 14.1 .436 1.9 5.7 .340 4.2 8.4 .500 4.1 5.3 .782 2.5 4.4 6.9 3.9 2.5 0.7 2.4 3.1 18.3

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 33 1080 22.1 .552 .402 .373 7.1 13.5 10.2 19.2 3.8 2.3 12.5 24.1 3.0 1.8 4.8 .178 7.1 4.3 11.4
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