Walter Clayton Jr.

Height: 6'3.25"

Weight: 199

Wingspan: 6'4"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 22.3

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Florida

Advanced

OBPM: 7.8

DBPM: 3.4

BPM: 11.2

WS/40: .206

Efficiency

TS%: .602

2P%: .534

3P%: .386

FT%: .875

FG%: .448

Player Statistics

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Model Output:

Original

3.65

No Impact

3.98

Positional

5.45

Humble

4.75

Pos Humble

5.73

Average

4.71

Model View:

The model outputs for Clayton were all clustered pretty tightly between 3.65 and 5.73. Three of them felt that he was going to be a solid bench player and two felt he’d be lucky to be in the NBA.

The models that loved him loved his TS%, steals per 40 and steals per foul, and the Humble models gave some credence to his projection as a first round pick.

The models did not like his age, lowish steals + blocks + oboards per 40, a low free throw rate.

Film View:

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Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Payton PritchardJared ButlerMarcus Thornton

Verdict:

Clayton is a bit of a battle between my head and my heart. There is simply no way you watch him in the NCAA tournament and don’t become enamored with his heart and clutch play. And he was a productive player with good stats and high Synergy marks. But if you watched him play, you also know he’s not a great defender and he basically bombed three pointers (note: 57.8% of his shots last year were threes). Additionally, he doesn’t have the athleticism, bulk, or wingspan of some other smaller players to help him compensate.

There is a path for him to be an impactful NBA player, just look at what Payton Pritchard has accomplished. But it’s also a bit of a narrow path. And like we discussed with Collin Murray-Boyles, it’s a situation where if he ends up close to a high end outcome, then great. But even more so than with Murray, if he misses, and you start to scale down how his skills translate and work in the NBA, the outcomes become pretty useless and negative quickly.

The tricky part is, in the NBA if you aren’t a balanced player and you are an offensive or defensive specialist, you need to have a role and provide enough value on your good end to outweigh what you are taking off the table on the other end. And at 6’2″ without a giant wingspan or elite athleticism that is hard, you really need to be a heck of an offensive player so that the team runs at least some of it’s offense through you and gives you a chance to create that value. That’s great if you are Hersey Hawkins or Payton Pritchard, but what about if you are Bryn Forbes or Seth Curry? What if you are any worse?

So I do think at some point the upside here is worth a gamble. Ideally Clayton would be more in that 27-40 range, but given this draft, I could see him more in the 20-30 range. Let a playoff team take a big swing and see if they can get an offensive sparkplus, especially if they have a more defensive minded team like the Heat or the Cavs. Clayton will likely have an adjustment period to the NBA, but given his age and maturity, it’s possible that by the end of the season, he’s able to step in and contribute for a team that need some rotational help and scoring now.

NBA Comp High:

Choose Your Own Adventure: Hersey Hawkins or Payton Pritchard

If Clayton hits a high end outcome, he could be a great scorer and stater like Hawkins or a 6th Man of the Year type of player on a championship caliber team. There is clearly a path for him, but there's not necessarily a ton of great examples of older, undersized guards who are not great defenders and sort of fit Clayton's current mold. But Hawkins even made an All Star game, so if Clayton's game and shooting really translates, there's real upside here for a team drafting him.

NBA Comp Medium:

Bryn Forbes

And here is the rub with a player like Clayton. Bryn averaged double digit scoring for two years and was a deadeye three point shooter, but never once had a positive BPM and was a -2.4 for his career and had a career high of -1.3. And that's the issue. This type of role and player scales down quickly, from some very good top end outcomes to being fringe players. Looking at the list of small shooters with limited creation, you start seeing names like Damon Jones and Seth Curry. You don't have a lot of great middle outcomes.

NBA Comp Low:

Markus Howard

So admittedly Howard was 5'11" and Clayton would feel huge standing next to him. But Howard actually shot threes well during his two years with the Nuggets. But if you aren't a focal point at this size and you aren't a stout defender (or are a net negative on defense) it's hard to keep you on the floor.

Walter Clayton Jr. Player Statistics

Per Game

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	39	32.6	6.0	13.4	.448	3.0	7.8	.386	3.0	5.7	.534	3.2	3.7	.875	0.4	3.3	3.7	4.2	1.2	0.5	2.4	1.9	18.3

Totals

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	39	1271	235	524	.448	117	303	.386	118	221	.534	126	144	.875	14	130	144	163	46	20	94	73	713

Per 40 Minutes

Season	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	2P	2PA	2P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
2021-22	39	1271	7.4	16.5	.448	3.7	9.5	.386	3.7	7.0	.534	4.0	4.5	.875	0.4	4.1	4.5	5.1	1.4	0.6	3.0	2.3	22.4

Advanced Stats

Season	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/40	OBPM	DBPM	BPM
2021-22	39	1271	21.6	.602		.578	.275	1.2	10.3	6.0	23.2	2.1	1.6	13.7	25.6	4.4	2.1	6.5	.206	7.8	3.4	11.2

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