Amen Thompson

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism

Passing Vision

Quick First Step

Run & Jump

Broken Jumper

Navigating Screens

Model Output:

Original

7.02

No Impact

3.76

Positional

12.85

Humble

9.31

Pos Humble

7.67

Average

8.12

Model View:

First, a major caveat needs here. These models were initially set up for the NCAA and most data is NCAA players. Over time, FIBA and G-League players have slowly been added and techniques have been refine. OTE is new. Even last season, I used Jean Montero’s former FIBA stats. But OTE is basically a strong high school league. Given we had stats for Amen and Ausar, I wanted to run the numbers, but they need to be taken with a big grain of salt.

So if we set aside the caveats for a moment and take the model projections at straight value, they are a bit divided on Amen where he finishes as high as #1 and as low as #33. And unlike some players, the rank differences aren’t 1-2 point variations in scores with some other players moving up or down. The No Impact Stats model says he is Lucky to Be in the League, while the Positional Model says he has Superstar Potential.

What is swinging him so wildly? A few bit items. First is Strength of Schedule (S)S. Not all models end up using SOS heavily. Sure we all know SOS matters, but in a dataset of mostly draft worthy NCAA, FIBA, and G-League players, it doesn’t always have a big impact. Sure, Kentucky typically plays a harder schedule than Gonzaga, but the difference isn’t always very important. But with Amen and Ausar playing against high schoolers? The models vary between acting like their stats are essentially on par with Brandon Miller’s and penalizing them for having the worst SOS (their is set to match St. Francis NY, #355 in KenPom’s rankings).

Otherwise, it’s a lot of what you would guess. The models that like Amen lean on age, impact, applied athleticism stats like steals, blocks, and O-Boards, and physical attributes like height and wingspan for a position. The models that don’t like him factor in more shooting and efficiency.

Film View:

So first off, credit to OTE, the league has made significant strides in quality from last season. I had to stop watching Jean Montero film and go back to FIBA, because the OTE was unwatchable. Just a bunch of fast breaks with literally zero defense. This year, while there are…

So first off, credit to OTE, the league has made significant strides in quality from last season. I had to stop watching Jean Montero film and go back to FIBA, because the OTE was unwatchable. Just a bunch of fast breaks with literally zero defense. This year, while there are still a lot of fast breaks and highlights, the games were more competitive. That said, it’s really hard to contextualize two gifted college aged players going up against a bunch of high schoolers.

Offensively, Amen is very talented except for one glaring hole – his shooting. Some things are very clear regardless of the competition. Amen has extremely high functional athleticism. He is an explosive leaper with a great vertical, strong hangtime, and very high fluidity and body control. He has sequences where he palms the ball in one hand and can contort his body and arm position to get a good angle for a layup inside. His body control and footwork also shine when he slithers through the lane and navigates traffic (though this aspect is a bit less impressive against the level of competition). Similarly, Amen has good handles. They can be a bit loose at times, but he has clearly worked hard on them and he not only has a full arsenal of moves, but can string them together. Given Amen’s very quick first step, he seems to favor using a hesitation move (either immediately or as part of a string of moves such as transitioning from a crossover to a hesitation and then bursting to the hoop). Amen is incredibly fast and once he gets a step on a defender, he can get to the basket in 2-3 long strides making recovery difficult. This puts tremendous pressure on the defense and there were a number of plays where you could count 3-4 defenders packing the paint trying to stop him. Amen is good at sensing this pressure and uses his talent as a passer pretty consistently make the right pass (even if he attempted to make it in a much more complicated or flashy way than required). This also translated to the P&R, where Amen was able to make a number of nice reads, despite neither his big man nor he being good shooters. Speaking of which, the real elephant in the room is Amen’s shot. There is no sugar coating it, Amen might have the most broken mechanics I have seen from a top guard prospect in a long time. It’s reminiscent of watching Ben Simmons or rookie Markelle Fultz shoot (right after he oddly changed his shot). It’s hard to describe exactly what is wrong as it is inconsistent, but he is stiff and mechanical. His arms and legs don’t always move in unison. And he can lean back or shot put his jumper at times. The opposing team didn’t even bother closing out on him at times and there were a number of air balls and just rough misses.

Defensively, a lot of components you want to see are there. Amen appears to have good lateral speed. He looks like he can change direction quickly from east to west and north to south, which helps with counter moves, challenging shots, and quick recoveries. And he seems to have quick hands and reactions, which should lead to a lot of steals, he can directly turn into offense. However, there are a couple of big caveats. The first is of course the competition. There were times when a player was able to shake Amen with a move and he recovered. But is recovering on a high schooler really a good indicator he could have recovered on Brandon Miller or even Marcus Sasser? He also didn’t really try or seem to care too much about defense. He played upright in his stance and gambled on a lot. So sure, watch the right highlight and it might look like he jumped a route and had great anticipation, but really, he jumped three routes and finally scored the perfect highlight. This isn’t to say he isn’t quick or isn’t savvy. You see it on offense. He clearly knows the game. But he may have felt he was toying with high schoolers and just didn’t take defense very seriously, which makes getting a read beyond basic physical abilities more difficult.

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Thaddeus YoungChuma OkekeRonnie Brewer

Best Stats:

24-9-9 per for; 3.4 steals and 1.3 blocks per 40; 33 Net Rating; 6’7″ with a 6’11” wingspan

Ok, so the first sets of numbers are basically video game stats. Really impressive regardless of the level (kind of). But the height and overall length are impressive for a PG.

Worst Stats:

25% on threes; 66% on FTs

Amen has to shoot. And film aside, neither of these numbers inspires any confidence.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

Shooting. Look there’s more. He needs to show he can take defense seriously and that his offense is translatable and he didn’t look extra impressive playing in OTE. But while there is technically a path to stardom as a PG without shooting (Ben Simmons was All NBA while shooting 0.1 threes per game), it’s extremely narrow.

Verdict:

I’ve toggled Amen as high as Tier 2 with Scoot and as low as Tier 4 as a lower probability home run swing. Despite the complications of translating tape from OTE to the NBA, there’s a lot of good with Amen that gives him tremendous upside. He’s clearly an elite functional athlete who checks a lot of boxes on both sides of the court. Even if it takes him extra time to adapt to the NBA game compared to rookies coming from the NCAA or FIBA, the raw tools that Amen has to work with are legitimate. Additionally, I do think the tape shows that Amen understands the game and is a very skilled ball handler and passer, so you are not just drafting an athlete and hoping you can teach him how to play basketball. And as an added bonus, like LaMelo Ball when he was drafted, Amen has been in the limelight for years and has shown an ability to handle it.

But that shot is a major red flag and swing skill. And it is not just in need of some tweaking the way that we might talk about Jarace Walker or Anthony Black. It might need a full rebuild. And what is Amen without a credible jumper in the NBA? A skinnier Ben Simmons? That’s not useless, but it’s not as useful either. Simmons was a DPOY candidate who was hyper switchable and an elite driver who could absorb contact. Amen would still have value, but you would really have to craft the perfect roster around him and how much less valuable than Simmons could he be before that simply isn’t worth it?

Ultimately, after going back and forth, I think that Amen is too skilled and too hard of a worker to not at least make his shot passable. It might take 2-3 years, but he can provide other value in the meantime and if he goes early enough in the lottery, he is likely to land on a team that can be patient as he develops. This definitely feels like a bit of a risk, but as a GM of a generic team, I think I’d rather take a risk on Amen in the top 5, then start turning to a group more likely to produce a solid to plus starter.



Amen Thompson

Advanced

Efficiency

Strengths & Development Areas:

Model Output:

Original

No Impact

Positional

Humble

Pos Humble

Average

Film View:

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

Per Game

Totals

Per 40 Minutes

Advanced Stats

GET IN TOUCH

chris@nbadraftnetwork.com

QUICK LINKS