Tier 1 – Generational Talent
(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)
Unlike last year, this year features not only a definitive number one pick, but a generational talent in a tier of his own.
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
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Humble
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Average
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Wembanyama is a game changer on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Wembanyama is a true three level scorer who puts a lot of pressure on the defense both on and off the ball, as he always needs to be accounted for given his size, shooting, and ability to flash…
Wembanyama is a game changer on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Wembanyama is a true three level scorer who puts a lot of pressure on the defense both on and off the ball, as he always needs to be accounted for given his size, shooting, and ability to flash inside for a quick finish.
Wembanyama is not the most powerful athlete, but he is a very smooth athlete who gets off the floor quickly and has long arms and solid fluidity, which help him both on the drive and finishing in traffic. The challenge for college (and soon NBA defenses) is that while Wembanyama may have his imperfections, he’s dangerous scoring virtually anyway imaginable. Wembanyama flies up the court in transition where he almost glides and then transitions quickly into a burst towards the hoop in a way almost reminiscent of Tracy McGrady (though not quite as smooth). In the half court, Wembanyama is no less dangerous. He’s a P&R nightmare. He has a big enough frame and enough strength even at this stage to set a good pick and then he can either roll towards the hoop where his size, length, and great hands make him an ideal inside target or he can pop to the perimeter where his speed and shooting creates valuable spacing and even make him a threat to slip the screen if the defense tries to cheat. This extends in general to Wembanyama’s ability to play off ball. Wembanyama isn’t just some stationary shooter who will sit in the corner. He’s very active off the ball and shows the ability to run off screens, where his ability to shoot threes, pop to the free throw line, or cut inside means the defense needs to focus on him at all times. The amount of gravity he can create without the ball is extremely high and is going to make him an extremely valuable weapon in the NBA. In terms of Wembanyama’s shot, when he gets his feet set and shoots on balance, he can be absolutely lethal and very hard to contest given his length. However, he also shoots a high volume of threes and at times can rush them or shoot off balance and his accuracy starts to suffer. This is also true with his movement shooting and shooting off the dribble. He has some great moments and shows potential, but he’s tends to lean back and get a bit off balance. He’s not going to be mistaken for even prospect Luka Doncic yet on these shots. However, he clearly has the skill and I’d expect we see this part of his game grow over the next few years.
On the ball, Wembanyama is equally as dangerous. He doesn’t have the quickest first step and will need to tighten up his handles (can be high and loose at times, great in space, but can be picked in congestion), but he’s fast enough to beat most bigs and his high release point and shooting forces smaller players to bite on fakes / commit on close outs and opens up lanes for him to drive. Wembanyama also displays strong footwork when driving that allows him to use some strong countermoves when challenged on the drive. He won’t be mistaken for an elite wing player, but the skills are elite for a big man. Inside, his combination of length and touch makes him a human cheat code. Wembanyama has solid handles (including a strong spin move he loves) and his long strides allow him to get to the hoop quickly. There his length, quick jumping, solid hangtime, and good touch allow him to score easily. This applies to his post game as well, he shows signs of hitting the patented LaMarcus Aldridge turnaround in the post, which is nearly impossible to stop with his skill and high release point. Like a lot of 19 year old big men, he will need to keep adding strength, as he can be bumped and have his timing thrown off by stronger players. And I am nitpicking, but he can continue to refine his touch inside, he does get sped up at times and misses some shots he should hit. Again, nitpicking, but improving here will help his path to superstardom.
Finally, Wembanyama is overall a good decision maker and passer. When he doesn’t get caught up over-dribbling on the perimeter, Wembanyama makes quick, strong moves with the ball. Sometimes, it does feel like he’s decided what move he’s going to do when he’s receiving the ball, but he’s a smart player who will benefit from more repetitions. Wembanyama is also a strong passer. Again, he won’t be mistaken at this stage of his career for an elite passing big like Divac or Jokic. However, he flashes diverse passing ability from the top of the key, pst, crosscourt, on the break, or hitting cutters. His height allows him to see and hit virtually all passing angles and he’s a good enough live dribble passer that this weapon isn’t limited to moments he’s stationary. Wembanyama processes the game well enough, that he makes good anticipatory passes and is often ready to swing or hit a quick touch pass to an open player. Given all of the attention and double teams he attracts, this is going to be a major weapon for him as he acclimates to NBA defenses.
However, what makes Wembanyama so intriguing is that he is not just a potential offensive engine, but he’s also a game changing defensive player. Wembanyama has elite physical skills for a defender with elite length, strong lateral speed, the ability to change direction, and great coordination / reflexes. Unsurprisingly, these skills make Wembanyama and elite shot blocker at all levels; including post ups, drives, jumpers, and even three points shots. And not only is he an elite help defender providing weakside shot blocking, his speed and length help redefine what we consider to be normal or possible when helping. And Wembanyama has the coordination and handles to take these blocks (or even normal rebounds) and quickly transition into offense driving up the court or passing to move the ball.
Wembanyama also has good lateral speed and with his length and quick reaction times is able to play effective drop coverage and move well enough on the perimeter that he’s difficult for most wings and guards to isolate and try to hunt. Even when initially beat, Wembanyama has the speed and length to recover and still contest (or even block) the shot inside. Wembanyama’s long arms and coordination also allow him to get into passing lanes or poking the ball away from ball handlers to create turnovers. However, it is worth noting that while Wembanyama has a strong ability to change direction for his size, he can struggle when he gets too much momentum going on closeouts or when he gets countered by quicker guards. Even then, his quick recovery, length, and double jump ability help him to recover and contest these shots.
Wembanyama also deserves a lot of credit for his very high defensive awareness. He has great anticipation and instincts and hs able to provide help on drivers or on the P&R and often recover to his own man. And he is a constant communicator with his teammates and is clearly a true defensive quarterback for his team.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
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Tier 2 – Bi-Annual Talent (#1 pick most years)
(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
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Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
The hard part of evaluating Scoot’s film this year is that there were essentially two Scoot Hendersons. A Scoot who was locked in and moved with a real sense of purpose and seemed bent on destroying opponents. And a Scoot who coasted and played upright, while letting his teammates repetitions…
The hard part of evaluating Scoot’s film this year is that there were essentially two Scoot Hendersons. A Scoot who was locked in and moved with a real sense of purpose and seemed bent on destroying opponents. And a Scoot who coasted and played upright, while letting his teammates repetitions in what is essentially a developmental program.
Offensively, Scoot is special physically. He’s an explosive athlete with a quick first step, great speed with the ball, strong fluidity, and great body control. While Scoot has the ability to play off ball (to a degree), if he’s on the court, he is the focal point of the offense. He has strong handles and a pretty advanced collection of moves for someone who was 18 for most of the Ignite’s season – crossovers, hand dribbles, hesitations, hostage dribbles – he has a full arsenal and keeps the ball on a string, which makes him very difficult to guard. Combine this with his strong footwork and body control and Henderson is able to put immense pressure on the defense. He’s already very good at varying his pace and lulling the defense before exploding towards the hoop with his speed. Once Scoot starts to drive, he has two options. First, he is a strong mid-range shooter, which he can get to pretty quickly. If the defender plays up even a step to try to prevent the jumper, Scoot is happy to go to the rim (he very well might even if the defender doesn’t step up). Scoot’s great body control and footwork allow him to slither around defenders, even in traffic to get a good angle. As he gets close to the hoop, he already has a strong runner he can utilize if the defense packs the paint. Or if there is a sliver of space, Scoot can use his combination of leaping, hang time, fluidity, touch, and strength / frame to create all sort of angles to get a quality look inside. Another weapon to get open looks / get inside is that Scoot is also talented running the P&R and is able to use screens to get favorable matchups or a step on his defender, which is very hard to recover from with Scoot’s speed. Scoot is a very savvy and high awareness player, who is adept at running the P&R and is good at reading the defense and knows how to attach hedges, drops, blitzes, or help defense. This is partially, because Scoot is a very strong passer. He won’t be mistaken from prime CP3, but he clearly understands how plays are developing and is able to read and react to defensive schemes and rotations and then has the ability to make the full spectrum of passes, from no looks, kick outs, cross court tosses, or hitting his big man / roller at virtually any angle. He’s also a great live dribble passer and even when there is not an immediate play, he can patiently probe the defense and keep his dribble before scoring or throwing a dime to an open man.
Scoot’s biggest offensive weakness is his shot. While he improved a lot on threes this year (both his form and results), he’s still rather pedestrian from deep. Defenses would still dare him to shoot and try to play back to hedge against him attacking the rim. It is worth noting that the G-League uses the NBA three point line, so while this is a legitimate critique he will need to improve for next season, it’s a bit unfair to compare his three point shooting directly to NCAA players. Right now, Scoot is at his best shooting in rhythm, especially off the dribble when he can step into his shot (hence the good midrange shooting). When he is forced to move or even catch and shoot, he isn’t as effective.
Defensively, the tape is more bad than good. But the good is when he seems to actually be trying. There’s no sugar coating the fact that the Ignite defense was bad and Scoot played a real role in that. There’s long stretches of tape where he is not in a stance. He’s reaching and gambling on plays. He takes careless fouls. And he just doesn’t seem like he is giving effort. Unfortunately, that can be true for a lot of high usage players in the NCAA and other lower level leagues. So I tend to focus a bit more on how these types of players defend when the game is on the line and they appear locked in. And I think this is what gives me hope with Scoot defensively. When he’s locked in, he can get into a stance and play defense. In these moments, you see very good lateral speed and the ability to change direction on the perimeter. You see the ability and strength to fight through screens (though his technique and angles will need some cleaning up). You see him having the strength, length, and explosion to be at least somewhat switchable and to absorb contact from drivers. And someone who covers ground quickly and has the explosion and wingspan to rotate and contest shooters or at least provide some congestion inside. His offensive awareness also translates to defense when he wants it to. He as plays where he hedges a screen his man sets, tags a roller after a second screen, and then gets back to his man. He has quick hands and good anticipation and does get into passing lanes and strip ball handlers. And he’s an good rebounder who is explosive and strong getting to the ball and then immediately becomes a grab and go threat pushing the pace. He is simply too gifted physically and too heady of a basketball player to be as bad defensively as he looked when he is disinterested.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
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Tier 3 – Potential All Stars and Lower Probability Superstars
(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)
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Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
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For people who followed last year’s draft, while certainly not identical players, Brandon Miller fits the same overall archetype that Jabari Smith Jr. did last season. SF/PF hybrids who are strong shooters, strong defenders, with basic handles and questionable ability to finish inside.
First and foremost, Miller’s greatest offensive threat is…
For people who followed last year’s draft, while certainly not identical players, Brandon Miller fits the same overall archetype that Jabari Smith Jr. did last season. SF/PF hybrids who are strong shooters, strong defenders, with basic handles and questionable ability to finish inside.
First and foremost, Miller’s greatest offensive threat is his ability to shoot, which opens up the rest of his game and creates gravity and spacing for his team. While Miller wasn’t in the same constant motion as his peers like Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins, Miller moves with a sense of purpose without the ball and Coach Oats ran him off a number of screens and other actions to free him up for his jumper. Either on the move or in rhythm, Miller is able to get his balance quickly and get off an accurate shot with a quick, high release. Miller is similarly accurate off the dribble and has deep range, able to hit threes well beyond the NBA three point line. This forces the defense to track Miller and play him closely / close our hard, which opens up driving lanes for Miller and opens space for the rest of his team. Miller is also a team player, who when running different actions is willing to get physical and set screens, so if the defense cheats, then he has an extra weapon at his disposal to help the offense. While Miller can shoot off the dribble, right now, he is best off of 1-3 dribbles to set up his shot, whether it is a side step, step back, or escape dribble to serve as a countermove to tight defense. When Miller is required to do more advanced dribble creation, his handles are solid, but he tends to lean more on straight line drives. He has some basic moves and can execute a decent crossover and hesitation, but he most often uses those to set up the threat of a pull up that forces a defender to play up o him or commit in order to open up a driving lane. Otherwise, his handles are functional, but a bit loose, though he shows some promise changing pace and had a few nice drives on fellow prospect Anthony Black.
As Miller drives, he shows a lot of promise from the mid-range, but this is currently an underutilized part of his game. In the midrange, his height and touch allow him to get up accurate shots with pull ups and turnarounds. Once he gets inside, Miller’s impact drops significantly. On the plus side, Miller is long and decently strong (with a frame that should add weight). He’s also reasonably athletic and has just enough fluidity and hang time to create some angles to score. However, while he is athletic in space, when there is a body in front of him, he struggles to apply that athleticism and looks significantly more human. He also does need to add strength and any bump or legal contact tends disrupt his balance and leads to a real drop in accuracy (and Miller falling on the court). He’s also not the most elusive or explosive athlete inside (especially in congestion) and can really struggle to score over length. It doesn’t help that Miller doesn’t have great speed and doesn’t even seem to take long strides that get him to the hoop in 2-3 steps, so even when he gets a step on defenders, he gives them the opportunity to get back into the play. One mitigating factor here is that Miller did play next to Charles Bediako, a talented but traditional big man who played inside and limited the space available. I’d be interested in seeing Miller in a Pro-style 5 out offense with better spacing. Otherwise, Miller’s other skills are all solid. He’s a decent offensive rebounder and a good passer. Miller’ has good vision and a good sense of the defense when he is being doubled. He moves the ball well and flashed some live dribble passing ability. He has the height to see over the defense and has good touch, though sometimes his accuracy could be better for leading cutters or putting the ball into the shooting pocket of his teammates. And despite his negative assist to turnover rate (not bad for a SF/PF to being with), many of his turnovers were due to his ball handling and not poor or careless passing.
Defensively, Miller has great timing, length, and some quick leaping ability that makes him a great weakside helper and leads to a lot of blocks and contested shots (Miller loves spriting in transition and getting the chasedown block). Miller is a versatile, multi-position defender who is switchable on the perimeter (a great asset when his man is the screener in the P&R), as he has the length, lateral speed, and recovery to handle all but the quickest or most advanced ball handlers. This allowed Miller to hedge, blitz, or switch on screens depending upon the situation and scheme. Miller is very quick at changing directions both vertically (i.e., when a player drives and he takes a step backwards and then the player counters with a step back) and horizontally (i.e., when a player uses a move like a crossover). This means even if Miller closes out hard or bites ona fake, he is able to recover quickly and use his length and quick leaping ability to challenge shots or wall up and prevent a drive inside. It also helps that Miller is a highly aware defensive player, he is able to get down into a stance, doesn’t bite on a ton of fakes and takes good angles to cut off ball handlers or get around screens (though he can sometimes get caught and will benefit adding strength to fight through more). Miller’s awareness also applies to his rotations, as he shows good judgement about when to help and doesn’t get caught ball watching and losing his man. While Miller is a very strong defender overall, if there were a couple of downsides to his defense, he is still more smooth than speedy or explosive and while he takes good angles, the lack of pure speed can make him late or force him to commit to contesting shots when rotating on the perimeter. And while he makes the right decisions about tagging down and rotating inside to help, he simply doesn’t have the strength to even provide much congestion on plays where he can’t get a clean angle for a block. There are any number of plays where he kind of got lost standing and watching under the hoop, while the big men battled and if he did jump to contest, he could be moved easily by a wing or big man with any momentum. Even some guards found the most success driving into his chest and using a bump to create the space to get off a shot.
Note 1: Offensively, Miller does play with an almost slightly hunched over style. Last year, I noted that Branham was very efficient and seemed to play taller than his listed height (and than other players the same height), which helped him get off some cleaner looks. Miller at times seems like he is playing smaller and I do wonder if he will need to correct that in the NBA.
Note 2: Writing about Miller, I at least have to mention that Miller faced some scrutiny during the season when a gun that he provided to another person was used in a fatal shooting. I don’t know Miller and I don’t know any details. However, as of now, Miller has not been charged (and there has been no implication he will be) and he’s cooperating as a witness. Obviously, this is the kind of situation where teams will want to do their homework, but beyond this incident, I have not heard or read anything suggesting Miller is anything but a great person and teammate. So it doesn’t have any bearing on Miller’s rankings for me and as of now, it doesn’t appear to be impacting his draft stock.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
So first off, credit to OTE, the league has made significant strides in quality from last season. I had to stop watching Jean Montero film and go back to FIBA, because the OTE was unwatchable. Just a bunch of fast breaks with literally zero defense. This year, while there are…
So first off, credit to OTE, the league has made significant strides in quality from last season. I had to stop watching Jean Montero film and go back to FIBA, because the OTE was unwatchable. Just a bunch of fast breaks with literally zero defense. This year, while there are still a lot of fast breaks and highlights, the games were more competitive. That said, it’s really hard to contextualize two gifted college aged players going up against a bunch of high schoolers.
Offensively, Amen is very talented except for one glaring hole – his shooting. Some things are very clear regardless of the competition. Amen has extremely high functional athleticism. He is an explosive leaper with a great vertical, strong hangtime, and very high fluidity and body control. He has sequences where he palms the ball in one hand and can contort his body and arm position to get a good angle for a layup inside. His body control and footwork also shine when he slithers through the lane and navigates traffic (though this aspect is a bit less impressive against the level of competition). Similarly, Amen has good handles. They can be a bit loose at times, but he has clearly worked hard on them and he not only has a full arsenal of moves, but can string them together. Given Amen’s very quick first step, he seems to favor using a hesitation move (either immediately or as part of a string of moves such as transitioning from a crossover to a hesitation and then bursting to the hoop). Amen is incredibly fast and once he gets a step on a defender, he can get to the basket in 2-3 long strides making recovery difficult. This puts tremendous pressure on the defense and there were a number of plays where you could count 3-4 defenders packing the paint trying to stop him. Amen is good at sensing this pressure and uses his talent as a passer pretty consistently make the right pass (even if he attempted to make it in a much more complicated or flashy way than required). This also translated to the P&R, where Amen was able to make a number of nice reads, despite neither his big man nor he being good shooters. Speaking of which, the real elephant in the room is Amen’s shot. There is no sugar coating it, Amen might have the most broken mechanics I have seen from a top guard prospect in a long time. It’s reminiscent of watching Ben Simmons or rookie Markelle Fultz shoot (right after he oddly changed his shot). It’s hard to describe exactly what is wrong as it is inconsistent, but he is stiff and mechanical. His arms and legs don’t always move in unison. And he can lean back or shot put his jumper at times. The opposing team didn’t even bother closing out on him at times and there were a number of air balls and just rough misses.
Defensively, a lot of components you want to see are there. Amen appears to have good lateral speed. He looks like he can change direction quickly from east to west and north to south, which helps with counter moves, challenging shots, and quick recoveries. And he seems to have quick hands and reactions, which should lead to a lot of steals, he can directly turn into offense. However, there are a couple of big caveats. The first is of course the competition. There were times when a player was able to shake Amen with a move and he recovered. But is recovering on a high schooler really a good indicator he could have recovered on Brandon Miller or even Marcus Sasser? He also didn’t really try or seem to care too much about defense. He played upright in his stance and gambled on a lot. So sure, watch the right highlight and it might look like he jumped a route and had great anticipation, but really, he jumped three routes and finally scored the perfect highlight. This isn’t to say he isn’t quick or isn’t savvy. You see it on offense. He clearly knows the game. But he may have felt he was toying with high schoolers and just didn’t take defense very seriously, which makes getting a read beyond basic physical abilities more difficult.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
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NBA Comp Low:
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
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Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
Offensively, Cam’s best attribute is his ability to collapse the defense. We often talk about gravity when it comes to shooting; however, when Cam drives, he forces the defense to adapt and often for help to come over. Whitmore has a very quick first step for a player his size. …
Offensively, Cam’s best attribute is his ability to collapse the defense. We often talk about gravity when it comes to shooting; however, when Cam drives, he forces the defense to adapt and often for help to come over. Whitmore has a very quick first step for a player his size. Combine that with his highly functional strength and he can quickly get a step on his opponent and then become an absolute freight train heading to the hoop once he gets his momentum going. Whitmore also has a pretty solid arsenal of dribble moves and can use his handle to set up his drive. However, right now, it almost feels like he’s either already decided which move to use or is just reacting to the defense too slowly. He can overdribble or at times, he even makes a move and seems to have his man beat, but then still cycles through a couple of extra moves. Cam is actually at his best when he makes a decisive move and starts getting downhill. When scoring inside, Cam has some pretty explosive athleticism if there is a seam or opening, but is a bit more human when he has to navigate traffic or congestion. He doesn’t have the best hangtime or bend, which poses challenges; however, his functional strength and broad shoulders allow him to keep defenders at bay and find angles to get up clean looks. And unsurprisingly, he has the strength to finish through contact. This can also be a bit problematic though, as he leans on it too much at this stage. Whitmore’s primary MO is to bully defenders and use his strength, which works a decent amount of the time, but he doesn’t have much of a plan B, which can lead to charges, wild shots, or trunovers when he doesn’t have a clear lane. And while he has good handles (especially for a wing his age), they can be a bit loose and can lead to turnovers when he is trying to navigate traffic.
Another interesting aspect of Cam’s offense is his shot. He’s active without the ball and will relocate to find passing lanes for his teammates. And he’s good catching and shooting in rhythm (either stepping into his shot or off 1-2 dribbles). The problem is his shot is a bit slow. He takes a pretty decent dip and rises a bit slowly, but he does shoot accurately. The issue is when he is driving, it still feels like he shoots the ball in slow motion getting into his shot, so a lot of his midrange shots end up getting blocked or heavily contested, despite him having the moves to get open. This likely is what leads to his current gameplan that looks like it was ripped from the Morey Rockets, where he basically shoots threes or tries to force his way to the rim. This lack of in-between game makes his offense a bit predictable, but also hampers his passing. Cam doesn’t have great vision to begin with and most of his assists are very basic with virtually no examples of live dribble passing and very mixed touch and accuracy. However, they are all swings around the perimeter or trying to find an angle in traffic, he doesn’t really give himself a chance to get opportunities from the mid to high post.
Defense right now is an adventure for Whitmore. He has some good qualities. He has quick hands which he can use to get some steals and strip ball handlers. He does a good job fronting the post can make life difficult for bigs. And his athleticism shows as he was able to make some one handed interceptions of passes that looked like a football DB. There are some good tools. However, his defensive awareness is still a major work in progress. He’s not especially fast reacting to rotations and potential shooters, which given his lack of springy leaping ability and only decent length, can make it hard for him to really help and contest shooters. And that’s if he made the rotation or wasn’t caught ball watching and losing a shooter in the first place. He also tends to struggle on the perimeter. He has poor footwork and takes poor angles, which takes him out of plays. On the plus side, his feet don’t seem to “stick” or move slowly like some vulnerable defenders, but he is still very susceptible to fakes and countermoves. He also struggles a bit with screens – both on ball and off ball – as he can get stuck on them (again, doesn’t take great angles) and then doesn’t have the greatest recover, as it takes him a second to get his momentum going again. He can be completely taken out of plays by off ball screens, due to poor anticipation and navigation. He also tends to lean into on balls screens, making him very vulnerable to the offensive player rejecting the screen and just driving right by him to the hoop.v Now he does have good strength, so when a player doesn’t catch him on a fake, they do sometimes struggle to get outside his shoulders and if they try to drive into him, it’s like driving into a brick wall and Whitmore does a great job playing physically. This also manifests in the post. He is not a small ball center; however, he does have a strong base and can make it hard for big men to take advantage on cross-matches. He also has decent lateral quickness, which helps on wings, but even some guards can just drive right by him. Cam is a good defensive rebounder, his strength and great hands help a lot here.
Note: Whitmore was one of the youngest players in college basketball (he’ll be 18 still on draft night) and missed the start of the season due to a thumb injury on his shooting hand; while the awareness issues are legitimate, it’s certainly possible they might have been better if he had a full season playing with his team.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Tier 4 – Probable Starters with Upside, but Real Obstacles to Greatness
(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
Jarace Walker offers some interesting offensive upside, but with enough flaws that it’s fair to question how high his offensive ceiling will be in the NBA. Walker’s core strengths take place playing more off ball, but spreading the floor with his catch and shoot ability and at least in theory…
Jarace Walker offers some interesting offensive upside, but with enough flaws that it’s fair to question how high his offensive ceiling will be in the NBA. Walker’s core strengths take place playing more off ball, but spreading the floor with his catch and shoot ability and at least in theory servine as a screener in the P&R. Walker is a solid shooter for his size and shoots well when he is in rhythm, displaying a pretty quick release and solid form, though he can be a bit ridgid with some inconsistent form / landing, especially when rushed. These issues are exacerbated when he is rushed or tries to shoot off the dribble. Ditto with movement shooting, which is probably why while he is not a stationary player on the perimeter, he doesn’t move a ton, which contrasts a lot with his motor on defense. He has the strength and wide shoulders to set effective screens. And at least in theory should be strong as a roll man, but there were very few instances of him actually rolling, he typically popped to the three point line both after hard screens and slipping screens. It’s unclear if this was caused by Houston’s offense or by design to maximize his strengths (and negate his weaknesses). Walker is also a strong, physical offensive rebounder, who creates extra possessions with his effort.
On-ball, Walker has solid handles for a big man and loves to mix in crossovers and hesitation moves, but he tends to make a quick move to get into a straight line drive and doesn’t have a lot of shake or elusivity. He also has a habit of settling for midrange jumpers, which are not especially accurate. This also manifests in the post, where he is willing to play physically and use his strength, but then has a tendency to settle for getting to his spin move and half hook even when he seems to have a real advantage. These issues also manifest when he drives or tries to score off a pass inside. While Walker is a good athlete who can throw down a powerful dunk, when his momentum is stopped or there is congestion in the lane, he becomes much more human. Walker isn’t especially explosive or fluid and doesn’t have great body control in traffic. His touch inside is also fine, but not great and he misses some shots you would love to see someone his size hit (especially a lottery pick). This is compounded by the fact that he is extremely right hand dominant, and force up floaters and layups with his right hand on plays where he very clearly should be using his left, which will be even harder to get away with in the NBA. Finally, he again, shows a bit of a tendency to settle for his floater or driving into players, as opposed to using his body and frame / strength to create good angles and separation to get his shot off inside. On a positive note, Walker shows some good, naescent abilities as a passer. Not only is he an unselfish player and willing passer, but he had a few nifty no look or behind the back passes and plays where he anticipated player movement and threw some accurate, well timed passes. Combined with his low turnover rate (mostly losing the ball dribbling or traveling when he starts to drive from the perimeter), this is an area that could blossom in the NBA, especially as a short roll passer or opportunistic playmaker when the defense if off balance.
Ok, so if Walker is such a mixed bag offensively, why is he a potential lottery pick? Defensively he is an absolute stud who is a joy to watch. Walker isn’t the faster or most explosive player, but he possesses a few key traits that unlock his defensive game. First, Walker’s length, strength, motor, and high defensive awareness make him an extremely disruptive help defender. He is like a shark, always hunting and moving defensively, and using strong timing and his long arms to block a lot of shots in help defense and to get into passing lanes or strip ball handlers. Watching Walker on defense gave me flashbacks to Dyson Daniels film last season, where you could see him go from guarding his man, to tagging a rolling big man to stop an easy score, and then rotating out to a different shooter or jumping into the passing lane if the ball handler tried to throw the ball to the player Walker was originally covering. Additionally, Walker really is a two-level defender who can also guard the perimeter either in rotation or isolation. Walker has good lateral speed, rarely bites on fakes, has broad shoulders that make it harder for players to get outside of his body, and is extremely strong stopping and starting his movement and changing direction. He shows a strong ability to close out and then immediately move his feet and stay with the player if he tries to drive. This also helps him to handle and strontly contest countermoves, such as crossovers and stepbacks by guards and wings making it hard for them to gain an advantage. This paired with Walkers strong defensive instincts, make him a strong P&R partner; who can hedge, trap, or switch depending on the situation. And the few times a player tried just driving into Walker and trying to use their body or forearm to create space, it did not end very well for them. If I had to nitpick, Walker is a bit susceptible to speedy guards who can make a quick move and drive past him. And while his strength, length, and motor translate well into defending the post, he could be pushed back some by bigger players, so while he can likely defend centers opportunistically in the NBA, he’s probably at least a few years away from playing much small ball center.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
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Offensively, Hendricks is a very easy player to slot into an NBA role, but a bit harder to figure out if he can deliver on further upside. Hendricks primary value is as a shooter. Hendricks moves well without the ball and is able to set off ball screens and get…
Offensively, Hendricks is a very easy player to slot into an NBA role, but a bit harder to figure out if he can deliver on further upside. Hendricks primary value is as a shooter. Hendricks moves well without the ball and is able to set off ball screens and get to his spots, making him a versatile weapon even without the ball in his hands. Once he gets the ball, he is a good outside shooter who can get his balance and into his motion quickly and who has the length to utilize a high release point. He shows some potential as a movement shooter relocating or popping out and getting his balance quickly, though he is not darting off screens or using motion like fellow draftees Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins anytime soon. Hendricks is also strong when taking 1-2 dribbles to get into his rhythm or even utilizing an escape dribble. However, even there he can be a bit more insistent with his balance and landing. And if he tries to shoot off of any type of more advanced move, his accuracy declines and he has some pretty bad misses. Hendricks has solid handles for a wing, but he’s fairly mechanical and tends to lean on straight line drives with the occasional spin or crossover, but he does not have much in the way of shake or great countermoves. Once inside, Hendricks can finish with a viscous dunk if he has space, but plays more below the rim when there is even mild congestion blocking his path to the hoop. He also doesn’t have great hops in traffic, hangtime, or touch for socing inside. And he is not very fluid with little bend on his drives or attempts, looking a bit stiff. However, he does already have good size and strength to absorb contact and still score and this could develop further as he matures. With his size, Hendricks can do the occasional post move, especially when cross matched, but at this point in his development, his post moves are mostly rising to shoot over his defender. When matched with someone closer to his size and athleticism, he struggles to create from the post. It’s hard to see him as a major post weapon at the next level, but he can use this tool opportunistically on smaller players. Hendricks is a solid passer, he’s unselfish and willing, but most of his passes were pretty basic tosses around th eperimter or an escape valve when he couldn’t get an good scoring lane. He flashed some high post passing, but also doesn’t appear to have great vision yet an dmade some poor passes when clear angles weren’t there (or there was some congestion). He also struggled a bit when he needed to make a quick decision or read. He also needs to tighten his handles as he had some turnovers when he tried to do more than a straight line drive. Hendricks doesn’t seem to really “feel” the defense or sense where pressure is coming from and was vulnerable to digs and help. Hendricks does also show some potential as a cutter and can score hitting the offensive glass.
Defensively, Hendricks has the tools to be an impactful defender. He has long strides that allow him to cover ground quickly. And he has the length and springiness to help on the perimeter and contest shooters. His long arms and good timing help him to contest and block shots both on his man and providing weakside help inside without fouling at a high rate (does a good job of going straight up and not hacking at the ball). In fact his great timing, coupled with his length and solid hots allowed him to get some very impressive blocks on high arching runners that seemed to almost defy physics. Hendricks overall is a solid help defender, who does a good job of rotating and communicating with his teammates. What shines here is he is an absolute hustler on deense with a great motor who is always looking to contest shots and help his teammates. Hendricks also has the strength to absorb contact inside and will provide good congestion and rim protection as he continues to add strength. One small issue is that he does have a tendency to get caught ball watching and loses his man at times. Players don’t always get punished for that by NCAA shooters, but he will need to clean that up at the next level. Hendricks is also a good perimeter defender. His lateral speed is good, but not great. And he only has a decent ability to change direction and react to countermoves. Because he is so long and springy, he is able to play a couple steps off of quicker, smaller players and still contest their shots. However, he can be vulnerable to quick blow bys from speedier guards or susceptible to countermoves and he can play back far enough that he is a bit susceptible to pull ups and step backs from quicker players. Hendricks appears to be a solid P&R defender. But UCF switched a lot of screens, which is both a credit to his versatility, but also made it a bit tougher to see how he navigated screens or would operate in situations in the NBA where he couldn’t just switch and wanted to avoid being hunted. Overall, Hendricks
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NBA Comp High:
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Original
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Humble
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Offensively, Black is an extremely savvy player who has a decent physical profile and skill set, but uses his high awareness and quick decision making to get the most out of his tools. Black is a solid athlete who has a decent first step and who possesses solid handles. He…
Offensively, Black is an extremely savvy player who has a decent physical profile and skill set, but uses his high awareness and quick decision making to get the most out of his tools. Black is a solid athlete who has a decent first step and who possesses solid handles. He can execute a variety of textbook moves ranging from crossovers, hesitations, and changing pace to try to throw the defense off. And if he gets a step on the defense, he will effectively use a hostage dribble to keep the defender behind him while he surveys opportunities. The problem is despite all of this, he simply isn’t that elusive or speedy. He will use screens to help create additional advantages. This works to some degree, partially as Black is able to read and react to defensive coverages very quickly. This allows him to drive, shoot or pass the ball either to the screener (on the roll or pop) or to another teammate. This is another strength of Black’s. He may not be a three-level scorer, but he is a three level passer. He reads the court and makes anticipatory passes. He can hit cutters, whip passes crosscourt to shooters, and can hit his roll man at various angles. He can throw basic passes and more advanced ones with generally good touch and accuracy. While he has a decent amount of turnovers, more of these were due to ball handling, either getting picked or getting trapped and then throwing a desperation pass. This passing would be a lot more dangerous if Black was more of a threat to score. Black’s big issues are he’s not great inside and he’s not a great shooter. When Black gets into traffic he doesn’t have a lot of countermoves, great body control, or great leaping / hangtime. He does have decently broad shoulders and a good sense of angles and touch, so he tries to shield the defender to get up his shot, but if he can’t he doesn’t have anything to fall back on. Speaking of falling, Black needs to continue adding muscle (he was up to 210 at the combine, but was lighter during the season), he seems to have a high center of gravity or is simply playing off balance when he gets inside and when he is bumped, it throws him off and he struggles to move anyone in the post. The other issue is Black isn’t a great shooter. He’s improved and is passable in catch and shoot situations despite some stiff, mechanical form. However, aside from needing to improve his outside shot, he poses no threat from the midrange, either dribbling into a shot or executing a step back, which would help open up driving lanes.
Defensively is where Black really shines. Black plays with a very strong motor and great physicality. He has an aggressive style that can lead him to overplay at times, but also put a lot of pressure on opponents. Black is a strong help defender, who gets a decent amount of blocks in help for his size and gets steals jumping into passing lanes or digging to knock balls away from drivers and then uses his ball handling to immediately transition into offense. He also rotates and communicates well, moving around the perimeter, tagging rolles, and making good decisions without losing his man. Notably, Black has really quick reaction times and good foot speed defensively and is decently springy jumping up to contest shots, which allows him to pressure and even block some shots on the perimeter. When guarding outside, Black has good lateral speed, doesn’t fall for many fakes, and has a strong ability to change direction. This allows him to move his feet and stick with potential drivers and recover to stay with them when they to throw him off with a countermove. He’s also wide enough and strong enough, that is makes it a bit harder for players to get outside of him and turn the corner or bump him off. His biggest weaknesses are that at times he plays too upright and perhaps related, he has good but not elite lateral speed, so some quicker guards can simply “turn on the burners” and drive right by him and he doesn’t quite have the recovery speed to catch up. He’s also benefit defensively from adding some weight as when he rotates inside, he can provide some mild congestion, but simply isn’t big enough to bother a lot of bigger wings and big men near the hoop. Finally, I would note that I did think Black looked a bit more human when matched up against prospective NBA players like Brandon Miller and Chris Livingston, so it’s possible that he’ll simply be a good and not great defender at the next level.
Note: I do think that for some of Black’s struggles offensively, that he was a bit miscast this year due to necessity. In the NBA, he is likely a connector or more complementary player. Originally, Nick Smith was likely going to be the high volume creator and Jared Walsh was probably supposed to soak up a bit more usage as well. But Smith was hurt and struggled to regain his form and Walsh struggled a lot offensively. So Black was basically cast in a primary creator role that wasn’t an ideal situation.
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Part of this will sound exactly like Amen’s write up, as they were both able to dominate OTE and as twins, unsurprisingly share some of the same positive physical tools. However, their games also have some important differences.
Offensively, Ausaur plays more of a wing role, whereas Amen was the primary…
Part of this will sound exactly like Amen’s write up, as they were both able to dominate OTE and as twins, unsurprisingly share some of the same positive physical tools. However, their games also have some important differences.
Offensively, Ausaur plays more of a wing role, whereas Amen was the primary ball handler. Like Amen, Ausaur is an elite athlete. He is an explosive leaper, who is able to throw down some thrilling dunks in space, whether on drives, in transition, or cutting in the half court. He’s also very fluid and has great body control, and shared Amen’s ability to palm the ball and contort his body while moving his arm into a better angle to score, which allowed him to his some circus shots inside. Playing a bit more off ball, Ausaur is more active. He shows more willingness to relocate along the three point line (and not just to put his hands up to get the ball to run a possession). He’s also a very active cutter into space, who looks for lob opportunities and has great hands for catching and finishing at the rim. Ausaur’s handles are decent, but noticeably a step down from Amen’s. He seems to have practiced all of the same moves as his brother and has a full arsenal of moves he can deploy, but overall, his handles are more functional and his moves are a bit slower and his handle is looser, making him less elusive in the halfcourt. Don’t get me wrong, he shares Amen’s quick first step and is a big threat in a straight line drive opportunity. However, when his first move is unsuccessful, he doesn’t have the same counters or ability to shake defenders that Amen showed. This is compounded by the fact that like Amen, his shot is a bit of a mess. The form and results are not quite as bad as Amens. However, mechanics were stiff and he kicks his legs far out, while almost pushing the ball. This allowed defenders to play off of him and prevents him from pushing defenses with a midrange shot or step back when they are trying to stop his initial drive. On a positive note, like Amen, Ausaur is a three level passer. He actually seems to make the simple and correct play a bit more, but is still able to hit shooters, cutters, and rollers from all over the floor. He has good vision and a cannon of an arm, allowing him to throw some pretty impressive crosscourt passes with strong touch and accuracy. He was also very strong on the glass for the Reapers using his athleticism and anticipation to keep possessions alive, though he also had some pretty big advantages here against the OTE high schoolers.
Defensively, Ausaur played with more intensity and more of a sense of urgency than Amen. Like his brother, Ausaur has strong lateral quickness and an ability to change direction well. However, he was more willing to get down into a stance (he still did not enough, but noticeably more) and hound ball handlers, using pressure to disrupt offensive possessions and his quick hands and timing to strip or poke the ball away from his opponent. Ausaur flashed some ability to navigate screens. Again, like his brother, he would play upright too much and sometimes get caught on them. But when he looked more locked in, he would quickly jump under the screen and back to his man. Now, I would have liked to see him fight through some more screens. In the NBA, someone like Curry or Paul George will simply hit the three while you run under a screen, but in OTE, the effort and speed he had was enough to stop any the other team gaining an advantage. Ausaur did have the strength to absorb contact and wall up against OTE player, but will benefit from adding more as he jumps up two levels to the NBA. Ausaur also has good timing inside, getting blocks and providing some weakside help. And he is a grab and go threat on any defensive rebound, who can immediately turn up court, but who also looks to pass and move the ball instead of just dribbling the whole way himself.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
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Wallace’s offensive profile really revolves around his ability to shoot and using screens and creativity to try to create offensive advantages. On the plus side, Wallace is a confident and aggressive scorer who played well for Kentucky despite their old school offense with big men clogging the paint. …
Wallace’s offensive profile really revolves around his ability to shoot and using screens and creativity to try to create offensive advantages. On the plus side, Wallace is a confident and aggressive scorer who played well for Kentucky despite their old school offense with big men clogging the paint. However, it’s never a great sign for a player’s offensive upside when you reread your film notes and have “struggles to create separation” written in 5-6 different ways. And that’s Wallace’s story. He’s a strong shooter when he’s in rhythm and he’s able to run the P&R and make smart decisions with the ball. He also has the ability to stop on a dime, which helps him to get to his mid-range jumper which he hits pretty consistently when he can gather himself and square his shoulders. However, while they are very different player, I had a touch of deja vu to Johnny Davis’ film last year, where Wallace hit some tough contested shots, but struggled to get seperation against college defenders. Wallace doesn’t have the pure speed to just run by defenders. He has a solid array of dribble moves (used some crossovers, hesitations, change of pace), but wasn’t especially crafty or elusive enough to shake defenders. Similarly, Wallace has a solid step back, but just did not create a lot of separation. And when Wallace got inside, he was able to use his strength and broad shoulders to hold defenders at bay and score. This also translates to his post game, where Wallace is willing to post smaller guards and bully his way to the hoop. However, Wallace lacked real explosiveness and didn’t have the fluidity, length, hang time, or touch to really compensate. He was fairly stiff and while he could explode a bit with a clear seam, when there was any congestion or his momentum was interrupted, he tended to play more under-the-rim and struggled to score over length. This led to a lot of inconsistency trying to score inside and could limit his ceiling in the NBA. However, Wallace also had a couple of clear offensive strengths that should translate to the next level. Wallace is a strong outside shooter and is savvy moving without the ball and creating passing lanes for his teammates to get him the ball. He’s also a good passer, who may not be confused for someone like Nash or CP3, but who has good vision and smart plays. Wallace also has the live dribble passing ability to create off the drive whether kicking the ball out or zipping a pass inside to a cutter or big man.
Wallace flashed much more upside defensively, though he still flashed a few traits that presented at least some violet (if not fully red) flags. Wallace is a very savvy defender with a high motor, who is able to use his strength and timing to disrupt the offense. He generates a fair number of blocks for a guard, as he’s not afraid to contest and use his body inside. He’s also a natural ball hawk who generates a ton of steals in every way imaginable; anticipating offense and jumping into passing lanes, poking the ball away from offensive players with his quick hands, or just using his strength to rip the ball directly out of an opposing guard’s or wings hands. Wallace also uses his strength to defend well inside, whether using his strong base to hold position against bigger players trying to post him up or absorbing contact from driving guards and wings without giving up any advantage. Wallace is also a smart defender who does a good job rotating and helping and trying to get back to his man. Wallace has good lateral speed and good defensive instincts that allow him to take good angles and navigate screens well. He also has wide shoulders, which makes it a bit harder for guards to get outside his body and turn the corner on him offensively. However, Wallace has a couple of issues that give me some pause when considering his defensive upside. First, while he has good lateral speed, it’s not elite. And more concerningly, Wallace does not seem to change direction very quickly. He seemed quite vulnerable on close outs and counter moves, especially from quicker guards and wings (against Tennessee, he really could not stay in front of Santiago Vescovi). Wallace even played a few steps off of some of guards, showing he may have his own concerns about his ability to keep up. Similarly, while he could navigate screens well, when he did get hit and his momentum was stopped, he was a bit slow recovering. Once he falls behind, his lack of explosiveness or quick jumping ability hamper how closely he is able to contest the subsequent shot. Wallace is a good defensive rebounder for a guard and someone who is comfortable quickly transitioning a rebound into an offensive possession.
Notes: First, Wallace had a series of persistent back injuries that started around mid-season, while that could be a red flag, it also may have limited some of his explosiveness. I don’t think it’s a real gamechangers, as some of these limitations were evident all season, but at least worth noting. Second, Kentucky under Calipari has always run a bit of a funky system with traditional big men and had a number of guards who looked better in the NBA than in college (e.g., Booker, SGA, Maxey, Quickley, etc.). While again, some of Wallace’s issues like his inability to create seperation off the dribble or his stiffness would be evident in any system, it is certainly possible that Kentucky’s spacing and system hid some of his offensive value that will be more evident in an NBA system.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
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NBA Comp High:
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Original
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Gradey Dick is first and foremost an elite movement shooter who creates creates enormous gravity providing spacing for his teammates. Dick’s value starts with his strong shooting ability. He has clean mechanics, a high release point, and the ability to get his balance and fire up an accurate shot with…
Gradey Dick is first and foremost an elite movement shooter who creates creates enormous gravity providing spacing for his teammates. Dick’s value starts with his strong shooting ability. He has clean mechanics, a high release point, and the ability to get his balance and fire up an accurate shot with a quick release. That’s already extremely valuable; however, Dick is more than a spot up shooter; he is able to hit shots relocating, coming off screens, or dribble hand offs. He’ s equally adept at shooting after using a couple of dribbles to set up his shot, get into a stepback, or as an escape dribble to evade a defender trying to close out on him. Compounding this value is Dick’s motor. Offensively, he’s like a shark who is alway moving and hunting. This forces the defense to always be aware of Dick and often to try to dedicate a defender to face guarding him, which opens up significant space for his teammates. This also manifests in transition opportunities, where Dick has the speed and athleticism to run inside and score, but also can sprint to the corners creating spacing or can be lethal as a trailer taking advantage of a scrambling defense.
Beyond shooting, the rest of Dick’s offense is a mixed bag. To Dick’s credit, he is savvy about using the threat of his shot to set up defenders and open up driving lanes. He has a bit of a frenetic, sped up style and uses a series of headfakes, jab steps, and hesitations force the defender to commit or play up on him, where Dick he does possess a quick first step and has the speed / handles to take advantage. However, if those tricks don’t work, Dick doesn’t have especially advanced handles and when he forces the issues, it can lead to turnovers or him driving out of control into traffic. Dick is actually pretty athletic in space (which shows on some of his dunks and charging in for offensive rebounds), but when his momentum is stopped, he looks pretty pedestrian and lacks an real countermoves at this stage. Inside, Dick has a few good tools; again, he is athletic and possesses some decent bend and hangtime. However, doesn’t have great touch and isn’t particularly strong so when he does absorb contact it can impact his balance and accuracy. This may explain why he’s a bit contact adverse and when there’s congestion inside, he tends to throw up some pretty wild shots. Further developing his floater or just stopping to drill a mid-range jumper would help. He also may need to slow down or at least have the game slow down for him. The frenetic style that helped him set up defenders on the perimeter seems to work against the rest of his offense. Dick is actually a pretty decent passer. Nothing too advanced, but when the defense shifts to stop him, he makes the right read and can deliver an accurate pass. However, when he’s sped up or he drives into traffic, most of his turnovers come from getting stripped or forcing a poor pass out of a bad situation he’s gotten himself into.
Defensively, Dick is a bit more challenged, but also not a lost cause. First, Dick plays with the same frenetic energy and strong motor on defense that he does on offense. He has good anticipation, speed, and quick hands that allow him to generate turnovers by getting into passing lanes and getting some strips. He’s also a solid defensive rebounder who uses his athleticism and speed to pursue the ball. Oddly though, he rarely seems to try to move up court and turn the defense into offense, but tends to hold the ball and then pass to his PG or at lease pause a couple of beats before dribbling. On the ball, Dick has good lateral speed and his quick, springy jumping ability allows him to contest jumpers. And while the lack of strength seems to hurt him when he gets bumped on offense, on defense, he shows some wiry strength and gets most of his blocks when offensive players try to dive into his chest to create space. The problem with his on-ball defense is that he struggles to stop and restart his momentum, which makes him susceptible to countermoves, even some pretty simple crossovers and stepbacks. Maybe due to this, he also tend to play a couple steps off players, which can make him vulnerable to a decent jab step. Dick also really struggles with screens. He has a tendency to either get stuck on them or to go under the screen, which frees up a lot of shooters (which will only be worse in the NBA). Likely because of this, he also tends to brace for screens, which then leaves him at a big disadvantage when the ball handler rejects the screen and just drives to the hoop. Off ball, Dick hustles and shows the ability to play in a good team defense. He’s strongest helping along the perimeter, where his speed and athleticism help him rotate and contest shooter. Inside, while he does his best to rotate and tag down or provide weakside help, he just doesn’t have the strength or overall length to really make an impact.
Note: I am a bit conflicted about my assessment above that Dick plays off of players, which can indicate a lack of confidence in speed / ability to guard close. I want to mention it here, because it shows a potential flaw in scouting that’s healthy to discuss. Dick doesn’t always give ball handlers space, but he did it enough to notice. However, when I looked into the players he gave space to, sure enough, some were really bad outside shooters so it may have been a smart decision, but others like Sir’Jabari Rice and Adam Flagler were very good outside shooters. So I think the point here is correct. But when analyzing film, I do encourage people to at least consider these are often smart player and coaches. And sometimes the “flaws” we spot are actually savvy and intentional strategies.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
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Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
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Bufkin is a very aggressive player who plays with a lot of physicality. I checked his measureable after watching him and was amazed he was listed at 187 pounds. Bufkin invites contact far more than most players his size and plays a bit bigger and stronger too. Bufkin is very…
Bufkin is a very aggressive player who plays with a lot of physicality. I checked his measureable after watching him and was amazed he was listed at 187 pounds. Bufkin invites contact far more than most players his size and plays a bit bigger and stronger too. Bufkin is very active without the ball, probing and moving to create a passing lane whether outside or cutting to the hoop. He challenges players aggressively and is not afraid of contact or getting blocked (he actually gets blocked a lot). Bufkin isn’t the most explosive run and jump athlete, but he has good footwork and body control, which he combines with good strength and hangtime to score efficiently inside. Bufkin is really good using his body to jump up into defenders and creating an angle to score or to draw a foul. Bufkin has a decent shot, but is also a bit too fearless with it. He is able to get his balance and shoot quickly and is very strong when stepping into a shot in rhythm, but less accurate when sped up. He is also not great shooting off of any more advanced move that isn’t simply taking a dribble to get his rhythm. Bufkin has decent handles, but they are more serviceable at this stage. Bufkin has good ball control, but fairly basic handles. He displays some shake utilizing crossovers, hesitations, and step backs, but mostly wants to and excels at driving in a straight line, which he can do with a quickish first step. He’s also pretty savvy when the defense is off balance or has to run at him, utilizing escape dribbles and side steps to gain an advantage. However, Bufkin doesn’t create a lot of separation or have great counters when his initial move is stopped. Coach Howard was great at putting him in situations to get a step on the defense running him in P&Rs and utilizing a lot of off ball screens to get him moving downhill with a step on the defender. Bufkin is also a smart cutter and an aggressive rebounder who will take advantage if his defender falls asleep or drifts to help. Bufkin is a solid passer, who even shows some decent accuracy off the live dribble. He shows some anticipatory passing moving the ball around the perimeter. But he seems to have better vision when he is at the top ot the three point line and can survey the court as opposed to when he is in traffic and may not have the height / vision to see all of the passing lanes.
Defense is a similar story. Bufkin seems to get the most out of his tools with a strong motor and aggressive, physical style of play. Bufkin is simply relentless. He runs back hard in transition. He navigates screens well and shows good judgement for when to fight through them versus sprint around them. He absorbs contact well for his size. And bigger players would try to back him down, but his physical play and strong lower body made him tough to move. On the perimeter, Bufkin does a good job of sitting down in his stance and moving his feet. However, Bufkin does have his limitations. He has good, but not great lateral speed and recovery speed and some NBA caliber athletes like Jalen Hood-Schifino and Terrance Shannon were able to jet past him consistently. He tries to neutralize this by playing tight, physical defense, but that has it’s limitations. Similarly, he doesn’t change direction especially fast and this leaves him vulnerable to quick crossovers or players driving hard and stepping back into a jumper or fade. This is where Bufkin’s limited reach and springiness make it hard for him to contest shots. This is also true when he helps and tries to get out to the perimeter, the effort and motor are there, but at times he struggles to get a close contest or has to fully commit to stop the shot, allowing players to sidestep or drive by him. Bufkin is also active in help defense, rotating and diving down to check cutters, tag rollers, and guard multiple players as the ball is rotated. Bufkin tries to provide some contestion inside, but his limited size and strength prevent him from really bothering any wings or big men with even an ounce of momentum. Bufkin does however have quick hands and good anticipation and is able to jump into passing lanes or strip ball handers on ball or with digs. He is also a good rebounder for a guard and is able to turn both the steals and rebounds into offense, quickly transitioning up the court.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Tier 5 – “Safer” Quality Role Players and Reasonable Home Run Swings
(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
Offensively, Miller is a really strong athlete. He is explosive in space and covers ground quickly, making him an excellent cutter, excellent in transition, and strong taking 2-3 dribbles to the hoop on a straight line drive. Miller also has some fuilidity and body control, which along with his long…
Offensively, Miller is a really strong athlete. He is explosive in space and covers ground quickly, making him an excellent cutter, excellent in transition, and strong taking 2-3 dribbles to the hoop on a straight line drive. Miller also has some fuilidity and body control, which along with his long arms helps him finish inside whether off a pass or on offensive rebounds. He is a quick jumper who can finish quickly on an inside pass or finishing after receiving a pass from a P&R. Miller has decent handles for a big man, they are pretty basic and not very elusive, but enough that he can grab and go or opportunistically drive to the hoop. However, Miller doesn’t always accept his limitations and had any number of ball handling turnover this year where he played a bit out of control. He’s already strong enough to absorb some contact on drives even in the G-League and can even set a decent screen, which might be more impactful in the P&R with more spacing in the NBA (versus the Ignite in particular). Miller is also unselfish and willing to pass and shows some nascent ability from the high post, but it still a work in progress and won’t be utilized there at the start of his career. The big issue for Miller is that he’s not quite bit enough to be a true rim runner, but his jump shot is a work in progress, very stiff mechanics and an almost push shot motion, not totally broken, but definitely needs refinement.
Defensively, Miller is long enough and springy enough he can play a step off on the perimeter and still contest effectively He needs to add weight, has the tools and effort to be a good post defender, but could be moved, which if fair for someone so young in the G-League, but will take some time to get to an NBA level. His quick jumping and long arms help him defensively, gets some weakside blocks, transition blocks, and can get to the perimeter and contest shooters. He has pretty decent lateral speed and can definitely step out to the perimeter credibly and might have the ability to change direction, but his footwork is off, lets his legs cross and then has to step back, he can do it decently fast, but needs work. He is also decent in rotating to help inside and out, but still needs to work on his overall awareness on this end.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
Coulibaly is an interesting case in that he has a good base of skills and was a bit of a Jekyll & Hyde where he was very aggressive and showed more creation and passing instinct in the junior league and then was a lot more passive in Jeep Elite. Now,…
Coulibaly is an interesting case in that he has a good base of skills and was a bit of a Jekyll & Hyde where he was very aggressive and showed more creation and passing instinct in the junior league and then was a lot more passive in Jeep Elite. Now, that’s expected both because the competition is better and it’s not a surprise that Coulibaly couldn’t execute at the same level as an 18 year old in a top tier league. But also because the Metropolitans 92s were competing for a title and were led by a fringe prospect named Victor Wembanyama, so it’s also natural that when Coulibaly joined at midseason he sought to fit in.
With that context, offensively, we saw a very mixed bag from Coulibaly offensively. He has decent handles for a wing, but they are fairly loose. In LNB Espoirs, they let him run a lot of P&R on his possession to try to help free him up. At his best, Coulibaly could use his quick and long strides to get to the hoop quickly and convert. But when the defense recovered or he had to create for himself, he had a decent first step, but his moves were basically a quick straight line drive or pretty rudimentary crossover or behind the back move that didn’t prove to be very elusive. It doesn’t help that Coulibaly’s shot is also still very inconsistent. In rhythm, Bilal is a pretty solid shooter. The release on his jumper can be a little long and funky, but he can convert. However, he is not at a movement shooter yet at all and really struggles off the dribble, even airballing multiple shots that didn’t appear heavily contested. When Coulibaly did get free, he was a mixed bag around the rim when there was any congestion. Bilal has strong fluidity, long arms, and good hang time. When his body and brain were in sync, he had some impressive finishes. Other times, he looked like a bit of a flailing mess tossing up wild shots. Basically, he has good physical tools, but doesn’t yet know how to use them and at times seems to jump into traffic and hope for the best. Coulibaly is decently active without the ball, relocating along the perimeter and cutting inside when there is a seam. He is a good lob target and his tools seem well suited to scoring in space or with a light contest in these more simplified situations. Same with crashing the glass, where Bilal’s fluidity and body control allowed for some highly acrobatic put backs and dunks. Coulibaly shows some upside as a passer, he had more of an opportunity in LNB Espoirs, but he could struggle with even fairly basic entry passes and just had too many sloppy turnovers even on basic swings around the perimeter and on inbound passes. He needs some real improvement to his awareness.
Defense is a very similar story. Mostly great tools, but mixed understanding. Coulibaly has long arms that help him contest shots inside and out and to create some congestion around the rim. He has a solid motor and will hustle back on the break where his open court speed and long arms help make him a nuisance around the hoop. And he can use his quick hands and long arms to get into passing lanes or pick ball handlers. He has good physical tools for defense, his long arms, good closing speed, and good lateral speed can help him contest shots on the perimeter in rotation and make him strong defending in isolation, where he has a good ability to change direction and can jump quickly, allowing him to stay in front of ball handlers and contest counters like step backs. But again, the awareness at this stage seems low and he overhelps and leaves his man for threes, gets caught in no man’s land hurting the defense, struggles to navigate screens and takes poor angles. There were a couple of screens where Coulibaly just reflexively goes around it and his man rejects the screen and pops to the corner and Bilal is just looking around completely lost. He’s also not the most physical player and doesn’t show much fight around screens, either getting caught up or even just stopping. Now he does try. he does rotate. He does tag rollers and dive into the key to help. He just loses his man in the process and doesn’t always use sound judgement. This is pretty much the pattern, I could keep listing the good (he closes out on shooters) and they are all a bit offset by poor awareness or inexperience (he runs at them and is very vulnerable to fakes). More than anything, the question is if he can learn and get the game to slow down.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
It feels like there are a lot of prospects where there is a clear split between their offensive and defensive ability. For most prospects, it seems to be great skill and shooting with open questions about if they can be a credible defender. Clark is fun in that he is…
It feels like there are a lot of prospects where there is a clear split between their offensive and defensive ability. For most prospects, it seems to be great skill and shooting with open questions about if they can be a credible defender. Clark is fun in that he is almost the exact opposite case.
Offensively, I wouldn’t say that Clark is a mess, but he it’s definitely the part of his game that raises questions about his role in the NBA. First the good. Clark has a very high motor and great functional strength. He plays basketball like he’s a football player and openly invites contact and absorbs it well. At this stage, his handles are more functional than anything. He is pretty dependable doing a straight line drive or a quick move like a crossover. But he’s not really shaking anybody and is not very elusive. About the only semi-dependable counter he has is a spin move he loves to lean on when someone stops his initial drive, but once someone stops his Plan B, well, there is no Plan C. At the next level, he will clearly only be driving opportunistically when the defense is off balance or he gets cross matched on a poor defender. Once inside, Clark pretty much relies on strength and using his body to shield the defender for a good angle. He is pretty athletic in the open court, but in traffic, he’s much more human and at times looks like he’s straining to try to reach an angel for a shot. Clark doesn’t have any real hangtime or fluidity to help here. And he doesn’t have a strong runner or floater to take any pressure off of his need to get deeper. He also doesn’t have the threat of a dependable shot to take open up driving lanes or to serve as a threat of a step back or even quick pull up. Clark isn’t much better shooting from the perimeter; however, his shot also isn’t broken. He has a bit of a big dip and sort of wind up he takes at times and he doesn’t always seem to have an ideal follow through. But it’s not like watching one of the Thompson twins. Clark is also a credible passer. He’s a bit better than basic and will move the ball around the perimeter, feed the post, and he loves to drive in to about the free throw line and then kick the ball out to one of his shooters. He’s generally pretty careful with the ball and doesn’t make a lot of risky passes.
Defensively is where Clark shines. He was almost made in a lab to be the near perfect defensive wing. Clark has really high awareness on this end of the court. He has elite anticipation, long arms, quick hands, and a strong motor that allow him to generate turnovers in any way imaginable. He jumps into passing lanes, executes digs, strips ball handlers, anticipates plays inside and bats away entry passes as a helper. He also rotates extremely well and provides excellent help both inside and out. He covers ground quickly and is able to close out and contest shooters. He rotates down and tags rollers, checks big men, and rotates along the perimeter as the defense shifts. And while he is limited helping against big men inside, he is strong enough and jumps well enough he can at least provide some legitimate congestion and make their lives more difficult. He has really strong lateral speed and a strong ability to change direction, but north to south and east to west. This makes him fantastic at guarding players in isolation, switching to guard up, or helping in rotation. Clark also has wide shoulders and as strong frame, which makes it harder for players to get outside his shoulders and turn the corner. And if they do, Clark has solid recovery speed to try to catch up and contest. Clark is also very strong at navigating screens. He has the strength, savvy, and gives the effort to fight through or can quickly maneuver around. This makes a big difference when teams try to shake him off their player with an off ball screen or in the P&R.
Note: Clark tore his achilles in March and he could miss a significant portion of his rookie season
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Tier 6 – Role players with More Limited Ceilings and Lower Probability Upside Swings
(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)
Strengths & Development Areas:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
I’ll say this, Keyonte George wins the Josh Christopher award given annually to the player who looks most like a legitimate NBA player when you see them move and even make basketball plays, but just doesn’t get any of the results.
Offensively, George is aggressive. He took a lot of hard…
I’ll say this, Keyonte George wins the Josh Christopher award given annually to the player who looks most like a legitimate NBA player when you see them move and even make basketball plays, but just doesn’t get any of the results.
Offensively, George is aggressive. He took a lot of hard shots in Baylor’s offense. What’s interesting is that many of them weren’t poor shots, but by design or choice, they were a lot of tough shots. Or put another way, a lot were well contested, but also seemed like a decent decision in the flow of the offense and not like a selfish player displaying poor shot selection. The problem is that George has a decent first step, but isn’t especially elusive. Baylor used a lot of screens and P&Rs to try to let him get a step on the defense, but even when he gets a step, George can take a lot of steps preparing for his scoring motion and doesn’t always take the most efficient path to the hoop, giving defenders time to recover. Now to George’s credit, he showed a nice ability to run off a screen or cut to the hoop for a bucket, but he could also be a bit stationary on the perimeter when it wasn’t a designed action. When George does get inside, he struggles scoring against length. But he’s a bit of an odd case. He actually has solid hops, decent strength, and good hangtime – all components that should allow for strong finishing. However, he has mixed touch and just seems to take poor angles. Instead of using his body to shield defenders, he just jumps into them and tries to score over them. Theoretically, he also should be a good three point shooter. He has good compact form and looks comfortable in rhythm, after relocation, or off the dribble…. but the results were just ok. Some if George taking tough shots and that he can lean back when heavily contested. But he is a good FT shooter, so this could improve in the NBA. Theoretically, he also has the makings of a nice step back jumper as he creates space on the dribble move. He just takes a bit too long to square up and gather, allowing defenders time to recover. And if we want to keep the theoreticals rolling, George actually displayed some decent vision, hitting cutters in stride or to his roll man. And he moved the ball quickly along the perimeter at times. He just forced too many plays and made some bad judgement calls, resulting in way too many turnovers.
Defensively, George is just much more limited. He’s not much of a shot blocker, but can get some steals due to his motor and ability to swim around his man to knock the ball away. He gives good effort on defense and has some pretty decent speed to cover ground quickly and can jump pretty quickly, but he isn’t especially long or explosive, which can limit his effectiveness contesting shots. George tries to help on defense, but he makes some odd decisions. He can lose track of his man or overcommit in moments where help isn’t needed or it doesn’t provide an advantage to Baylor. And he can get caught ball watching. I try to be a bit lenient on players helping as it’s not always clear what a coach’s scheme calls for, but it could be really confusing to understand where and why George positioned himself at times. George also only has decent lateral speed and can struggle to navigate screens. Because of this he can lean into them or try to anticipate and cheat, leading him to get burned by ball handlers rejecting those screens and just driving straight to the hole. He also plays a bit off his man at times to give a cushion, which could be problematic against NBA shooters. George is at least decent at changing direction which should help him prevent countermoves, but he has inefficient footwork and does a little shuffle that can make him slow to react, especially on step backs (George changes directions faster easy to west, than north to south). Again, at the risk of you hating this word, George theoretically has good functional strength. And he will try hard and move his feet and when players can’t get around him and try to drive into him or lower a shoulder, he does a good job absorbing the contact. However, in the post, he gets moved pretty easily. At the end of the day, some of the tools are there, but the decision makingi s the biggest concern. He doesn’t play P&Rs well, gets lost in rotations, and just doesn’t have a high degree of awareness at this stage of his development.
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)
NBA Comp High:
NBA Comp Medium:
NBA Comp Low:
Model Output:
Original
No Impact
Positional
Humble
Pos Humble
Average
Film View:
Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:
(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)