Tier 1 – Generational Talent

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Unlike last year, this year features not only a definitive number one pick, but a generational talent in a tier of his own.

Victor Wembanyama

Height: 7'4"

Weight: 229

Wingspan: ~8'0"

Position: PF/C

Draft Age: 19.5

League: LNB Pro A

Team: Metropolitans 92

Strengths & Development Areas:

Grab And Go Threat
Great Roll Man
Three-Level Scorer
Defensive Rotations
Hands
Rim Protection

Model Output:

Original
14.19
No Impact
13.67
Positional
11.6
Humble
11.2
Pos Humble
14.5
Average
13.03

Film View:

Wembanyama is a game changer on both sides of the ball.  Offensively, Wembanyama is a true three level scorer who puts a lot of pressure on the defense both on and off the ball, as he always needs to be accounted for given his size, shooting, and ability to flash…

Tier 2 – Bi-Annual Talent (#1 pick most years)

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Height: 6'2"

Weight: 195

Wingspan: 6'9"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.4

League: G-League

Team: Ignite

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Functional Strength
Three-Level Scorer
Creates Separation
Quick First Step
Catch & Shoot

Model Output:

Original
6.7
No Impact
5.73
Positional
9.03
Humble
9.41
Pos Humble
10.5
Average
8.27

Film View:

The hard part of evaluating Scoot’s film this year is that there were essentially two Scoot Hendersons.  A Scoot who was locked in and moved with a real sense of purpose and seemed bent on destroying opponents.  And a Scoot who coasted and played upright, while letting his teammates repetitions…

Tier 3 – Potential All Stars and Lower Probability Superstars

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Brandon Miller

Height: 6'9"

Weight: 200

Wingspan: 6'11"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 20.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Alabama

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Change Of Direction
Multi-Position Defender
Shoot Off The Dribble
Fluidity/Bending
Inside Touch

Model Output:

Original
11.83
No Impact
8.7
Positional
10.14
Humble
10.1
Pos Humble
10.92
Average
10.34

Film View:

For people who followed last year’s draft, while certainly not identical players, Brandon Miller fits the same overall archetype that Jabari Smith Jr. did last season.  SF/PF hybrids who are strong shooters, strong defenders, with basic handles and questionable ability to finish inside.

First and foremost, Miller’s greatest offensive threat is…

Amen Thompson

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 202

Wingspan: ~6'11"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 20.4

League: Overtime Elite

Team: Overtime City Reapers

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Passing Vision
Quick First Step
Run & Jump
Broken Jumper
Navigating Screens

Model Output:

Original
7.02
No Impact
3.76
Positional
12.85
Humble
9.31
Pos Humble
7.67
Average
8.12

Film View:

So first off, credit to OTE, the league has made significant strides in quality from last season.  I had to stop watching Jean Montero film and go back to FIBA, because the OTE was unwatchable.  Just a bunch of fast breaks with literally zero defense.  This year, while there are…

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 232

Position: PF

Draft Age: 18.9

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Villanova

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength
Hands
Physical
Quick First Step
Turnover Prone
Defensive Rotations

Model Output:

Original
5.39
No Impact
7.02
Positional
5.96
Humble
7.72
Pos Humble
10.21
Average
7.26

Film View:

Offensively, Cam’s best attribute is his ability to collapse the defense.  We often talk about gravity when it comes to shooting; however, when Cam drives, he forces the defense to adapt and often for help to come over.  Whitmore has a very quick first step for a player his size. …

Tier 4 – Probable Starters with Upside, but Real Obstacles to Greatness

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Jarace Walker

Height: 6'8"

Weight: 240

Wingspan: 7'2"

Position: PF

Draft Age: 19.8

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Houston

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength
Change Of Direction
Defensive Rotations
Multi-Position Defender
Fluidity/Bending
Shoot Off The Dribble

Model Output:

Original
11
No Impact
9.16
Positional
10.69
Humble
10.25
Pos Humble
9.89
Average
10.2

Film View:

Jarace Walker offers some interesting offensive upside, but with enough flaws that it’s fair to question how high his offensive ceiling will be in the NBA.  Walker’s core strengths take place playing more off ball, but spreading the floor with his catch and shoot ability and at least in theory…

Taylor Hendricks

Height: 6'9"

Weight: 210

Position: PF/C

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: UCF

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Motor
Multi-Position Defender
Creates Separation
Fluidity/Bending
Inside Touch

Model Output:

Original
9.37
No Impact
8.88
Positional
9.42
Humble
9.26
Pos Humble
10.15
Average
9.42

Film View:

Offensively, Hendricks is a very easy player to slot into an NBA role, but a bit harder to figure out if he can deliver on further upside.  Hendricks primary value is as a shooter.  Hendricks moves well without the ball and is able to set off ball screens and get…

Anthony Black

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 210

Wingspan: 6'7.5"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.4

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Arkansas

Strengths & Development Areas:

Defensive Rotations
Multi-Position Defender
Passing Vision
Perimeter
Shooting Form Issues
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
12.33
No Impact
10.05
Positional
9.72
Humble
10.67
Pos Humble
11.71
Average
10.89

Film View:

Offensively, Black is an extremely savvy player who has a decent physical profile and skill set, but uses his high awareness and quick decision making to get the most out of his tools.  Black is a solid athlete who has a decent first step and who possesses solid handles.  He…

Ausar Thompson

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 208

Wingspan: 6'10"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 20.4

League: Overtime Elite

Team: Overtime City Reapers

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Great Hand Speed
Lateral Speed
Multi-Position Defender
Catch & Shoot
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
10.31
No Impact
9.14
Positional
11.48
Humble
9.5
Pos Humble
6.52
Average
9.39

Film View:

Part of this will sound exactly like Amen’s write up, as they were both able to dominate OTE and as twins, unsurprisingly share some of the same positive physical tools.  However, their games also have some important differences.

Offensively, Ausaur plays more of a wing role, whereas Amen was the primary…

Cason Wallace

Height: 6'4"

Weight: 190

Wingspan: 6'6"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Kentucky

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength
Aggressive
Catch & Shoot
Motor
Change Of Direction
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
8.89
No Impact
6.73
Positional
7.15
Humble
7.67
Pos Humble
9.79
Average
8.05

Film View:

Wallace’s offensive profile really revolves around his ability to shoot and using screens and creativity to try to create offensive advantages.  On the plus side, Wallace is a confident and aggressive scorer who played well for Kentucky despite their old school offense with big men clogging the paint. …

Gradey Dick

Height: 6'7.5"

Weight: 205

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Kansas

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Motor
Movement Shooter
Shoot Off The Dribble
Change Of Direction
Navigating Screens

Model Output:

Original
6.43
No Impact
6.06
Positional
8.15
Humble
7.99
Pos Humble
11.37
Average
8

Film View:

Gradey Dick is first and foremost an elite movement shooter who creates creates enormous gravity providing spacing for his teammates.  Dick’s value starts with his strong shooting ability.  He has clean mechanics, a high release point, and the ability to get his balance and fire up an accurate shot with…

Kobe Bufkin

Height: 6'5.5"

Weight: 186.8

Wingspan: 6'7.75"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.8

Class: Sophomore

League: NCAA

Team: Michigan

Strengths & Development Areas:

Aggressive
Inside Touch
Motor
Physical
Thin Frame
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
5.34
No Impact
4.74
Positional
4.74
Humble
7.44
Pos Humble
8.09
Average
6.07

Film View:

Bufkin is a very aggressive player who plays with a lot of physicality.  I checked his measureable after watching him and was amazed he was listed at 187 pounds.  Bufkin invites contact far more than most players his size and plays a bit bigger and stronger too.  Bufkin is very…

Tier 5 – “Safer” Quality Role Players and Reasonable Home Run Swings

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Leonard Miller

Height: 6'10"

Weight: 211

Wingspan: 7'2"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 19.6

League: G-League

Team: Ignite

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Athleticism
Fluidity/Bending
Motor
Speed
Shooting Form Issues
Catch & Shoot

Model Output:

Original
9.64
No Impact
8.25
Positional
9.6
Humble
8.92
Pos Humble
10.6
Average
9.4

Film View:

Offensively, Miller is a really strong athlete.  He is explosive in space and covers ground quickly, making him an excellent cutter, excellent in transition, and strong taking 2-3 dribbles to the hoop on a straight line drive.  Miller also has some fuilidity and body control, which along with his long…

Bilal Coulibaly

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 194

Wingspan: 7'3"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 18.9

League: LNB Pro A

Team: Metropolitans 92

Strengths & Development Areas:

Great Hand Speed
Fluidity/Bending
Lateral Speed
Defensive Rotations
Navigating Screens
Shoot Off The Dribble

Model Output:

Original
8.2
No Impact
5.71
Positional
8.95
Humble
7.43
Pos Humble
8.98
Average
7.85

Film View:

Coulibaly is an interesting case in that he has a good base of skills and was a bit of a Jekyll & Hyde where he was very aggressive and showed more creation and passing instinct in the junior league and then was a lot more passive in Jeep Elite.  Now,…

Jaylen Clark

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 195

Wingspan: 6'9"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 21.7

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: UCLA

Strengths & Development Areas:

Functional Strength
Change Of Direction
Lateral Speed
Multi-Position Defender
Catch & Shoot
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
8.05
No Impact
6.3
Positional
7.99
Humble
3.67
Pos Humble
6.61
Average
6.53

Film View:

It feels like there are a lot of prospects where there is a clear split between their offensive and defensive ability.  For most prospects, it seems to be great skill and shooting with open questions about if they can be a credible defender.  Clark is fun in that he is…

Tier 6 – Role players with More Limited Ceilings and Lower Probability Upside Swings

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Keyonte George

Height: 6'4"

Weight: 185

Wingspan: 6'5"

Position: SG

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Baylor

Strengths & Development Areas:

Aggressive
Quick First Step
Inefficient Scorer
Turnover Prone
Defensive Rotations
Footwork

Model Output:

Original
4.15
No Impact
3.78
Positional
-2.94
Humble
5.96
Pos Humble
4.25
Average
3.04

Film View:

I’ll say this, Keyonte George wins the Josh Christopher award given annually to the player who looks most like a legitimate NBA player when you see them move and even make basketball plays, but just doesn’t get any of the results.

Offensively, George is aggressive.  He took a lot of hard…

Dariq Whitehead

Height: 6'6"

Weight: 190

Wingspan: 6'9"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 18.9

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Duke

Model Output:

Original
3.68
No Impact
3.64
Positional
7.85
Humble
4.67
Pos Humble
7.03
Average
5.37

Film View:

Brice Sensabaugh

Height: 6'6"

Weight: 235

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Ohio State

Model Output:

Original
5.48
No Impact
4.3
Positional
6.89
Humble
6.62
Pos Humble
9.5
Average
6.56

Film View:

Kris Murray

Height: 6'8"

Weight: 215

Wingspan: 6'11"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 22.8

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: Iowa

Model Output:

Original
3.18
No Impact
2.39
Positional
4.99
Humble
4.48
Pos Humble
6.92
Average
4.39

Film View:

Jett Howard

Height: 6'8"

Weight: 215

Wingspan: 6'9"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.8

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Michigan

Model Output:

Original
3.81
No Impact
3.18
Positional
7.51
Humble
5.45
Pos Humble
9.12
Average
5.81

Film View:

Dereck Liverly II

Height: 7'1"

Weight: 230

Wingspan: 7'7"

Position: C

Draft Age: 19.4

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Duke

Strengths & Development Areas:

Change Of Direction
Multi-Position Defender
Rim Protection
Catch & Shoot
Impact Screens
Inside Touch

Model Output:

Original
10.07
No Impact
5.07
Positional
6.35
Humble
8.78
Pos Humble
7.97
Average
7.65

Film View:

Lively is a bit of a frustrating player, as his defense was so much fun to watch.  He seemed comfortable, purposeful, and has great awareness on defense.  However, Lively’s offense was difficult to watch and it’s hard to see much of a role for him offensively early in his career.

Let…

Noah Clowney

Height: 6'10"

Weight: 210

Wingspan: 7'2"

Position: PF/C

Draft Age: 18.9

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Alabama

Model Output:

Original
7.53
No Impact
6.8
Positional
7.95
Humble
6.93
Pos Humble
6.82
Average
7.2

Film View:

Sidy Cissoko

Height: 6'7.25"

Weight: 200

Wingspan: 6'9.25"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.2

Class: G-League

League: G-League

Team: Ignite

Model Output:

Original
7.75
No Impact
4.49
Positional
6.69
Humble
5.8
Pos Humble
7.22
Average
6.39

Film View:

Rayan Rupert

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 192

Wingspan: 7'3"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.1

Class: ABL

League: NBL

Team: New Zealand Breakers

Model Output:

Original
6.03
No Impact
2
Positional
7.43
Humble
4.29
Pos Humble
6.63
Average
5.27

Film View:

Jordan Hawkins

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 185

Wingspan: 6'6.75"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 21.1

Class: Sophomore

League: NCAA

Team: UConn

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Motor
Movement Shooter
Thin Frame
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
4.51
No Impact
3.34
Positional
-3.05
Humble
6.57
Pos Humble
9.39
Average
4.15

Film View:

James Nnaji

Height: 6'10"

Weight: 225

Wingspan: 7'7"

Position: C

Draft Age: 18.8

Class: ACB

League: ACB

Team: Barca

Model Output:

Original
7.08
No Impact
2.55
Positional
7.02
Humble
3.77
Pos Humble
4.57
Average
5

Film View:

Brandin Podziemski

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 200

Wingspan: 6'11"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 20.32

Class: Sophomore

League: NCAA

Team: Santa Clara

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Passing Vision
Shoot Off The Dribble
Low Defensive Versatility
Lateral Speed
Navigating Screens

Model Output:

Original
7.61
No Impact
6.64
Positional
9.03
Humble
7.03
Pos Humble
7.98
Average
7.66

Film View:

Offensively, I like Podz.  He kind of reminds me of Donte DiVincenzo coming out of Villanova.  He’s extremely active off ball, constantly moving, but not just looking or jumpers, but cutting to the hole and generally probing the defense for weaknesses like one of the Raptors in Jurassic Park.  He…

Height: 6'5.5"

Weight: 216.6

Wingspan: 6'10.25

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.9

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Indiana

Strengths & Development Areas:

Shoot Off The Dribble
Inefficient Scorer
Change Of Direction
Creates Separation

Model Output:

Original
1.93
No Impact
3
Positional
-5.97
Humble
5.26
Pos Humble
5.09
Average
1.86

Film View:

Hood-Schifino was not very popular with the models.  And with To The Mean’s Jesse Fischer releasing his model compilation today, none of them seemed enamoured with him.  And it’s easy to understand why.  Hood-Schifino got a lot of hype for his scoring, but the data shows it’s more volume than…

Height: 6'6.75"

Weight: 198.4

Wingspan: 6'9.75"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 21.6

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: UConn

Model Output:

Original
6.3
No Impact
2.52
Positional
1.95
Humble
4.44
Pos Humble
5.29
Average
4.1

Film View:

Height: 6'8"

Weight: 212.4

Wingspan: 7'1"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 20.9

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: Marquette

Model Output:

Original
3.96
No Impact
3.15
Positional
5.29
Humble
4.55
Pos Humble
7.23
Average
4.84

Film View:

Tier 7 – (Fringe 1st Round) Potential Role Players with More Risk & Lottery Tickets

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Jaime Jaquez

Height: 6'6"

Weight: 220

Wingspan: 6'9.5"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 22.3

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: UCLA

Model Output:

Original
9.52
No Impact
6.95
Positional
6.17
Humble
5.61
Pos Humble
10.86
Average
7.82

Film View:

I like Jaquez and really want to get caught up in the hype. The models clearly like him.  He had a fantastic statistical profile and played for a top program.  They all tended to view him as at least a rotation player and maybe even a plus starter.

On offense, I…

Nick Smith Jr.

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 185

Wingspan: ~6'9"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.2

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Arkansas

Model Output:

Original
2.52
No Impact
2.32
Positional
2.97
Humble
4.26
Pos Humble
4.45
Average
3.3

Film View:

GG Jackson

Height: 6'9"

Weight: 215

Wingspan: 6'10"

Position: PF

Draft Age: 18.5

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: South Carolina

Model Output:

Original
2.89
No Impact
4.25
Positional
7.61
Humble
4.13
Pos Humble
2.86
Average
4.35

Film View:

Maxwell Lewis

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 195

Wingspan: 6'10"

Position: SF/SF

Draft Age: 20.9

Class: Sophomore

League: NCAA

Team: Pepperdine

Model Output:

Original
1.55
No Impact
1.8
Positional
3.29
Humble
4.05
Pos Humble
3.51
Average
2.84

Film View:

Amari Bailey

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 185

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 19.3

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: UCLA

Model Output:

Original
4.48
No Impact
4.73
Positional
3.9
Humble
3.44
Pos Humble
4.34
Average
4.18

Film View:

Julian Strawther

Height: 6'7"

Weight: 205

Wingspan: 6'9.5"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 21.2

Class: Junior

League: NCAA

Team: Gonzaga

Model Output:

Original
3.26
No Impact
3.78
Positional
5.23
Humble
4.49
Pos Humble
6.41
Average
4.63

Film View:

Marcus Sasser

Height: 6'2.75"

Weight: 190

Wingspan: 6'7"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 22.8

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Houston

Model Output:

Original
3.19
No Impact
3.15
Positional
2.19
Humble
3.97
Pos Humble
8.71
Average
4.24

Film View:

Height: 6'6.5"

Weight: 194.6

Wingspan: 6'7.75"

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 21.9

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Belmont

Model Output:

Original
4.19
No Impact
4.92
Positional
4.4
Humble
4.04
Pos Humble
4.21
Average
4.35

Film View:

Terquavion Smith

Height: 6'3.75"

Weight: 160

Wingspan: 6'6.5"

Position: PG/SG

Draft Age: 20.5

Class: Sophomore

League: NCAA

Team: NC State

Model Output:

Original
3.3
No Impact
2.59
Positional
0.86
Humble
3.05
Pos Humble
2.14
Average
2.39

Film View:

Tier 8 – (Potential Early 2nd Round Picks): Riskier role players & Extreme Lottery Tickets

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Height: 6'7.75"

Weight: 252.2

Wingspan: 7'0.75"

Position: PF

Draft Age: 23.5

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Missouri

Model Output:

Original
5.57
No Impact
4.4
Positional
5.43
Humble
4.42
Pos Humble
2.71
Average
4.51

Film View:

Julian Phillips

Height: 6'8"

Weight: 198

Wingspan: 6'11"

Position: SF/PF

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Tennessee

Model Output:

Original
5.46
No Impact
3.92
Positional
6.16
Humble
4.41
Pos Humble
5.69
Average
5.13

Film View:

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Height: 6'9"

Weight: 245

Wingspan: 7'2"

Position: PF/C

Draft Age: 23.3

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Indiana

Model Output:

Original
6.35
No Impact
2.14
Positional
4.79
Humble
3.01
Pos Humble
4.82
Average
4.22

Film View:

Showing 1-3 of 7 results

Tier 9 – (Late 2nd round fliers or Undrafted FAs): Hail Mary Time

(Note: Each name is clickable to view full player statistics)

Oscar Tshiebwe

Height: 6'9"

Weight: 260

Wingspan: 7'4.25"

Position: C

Draft Age: 23.6

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Kentucky

Model Output:

Original
5.76
No Impact
2.76
Positional
4.45
Humble
0.62
Pos Humble
0.81
Average
2.88

Film View:

Height: 6'10"

Weight: 243

Wingspan: 7'1.75"

Position: C

Draft Age: 22.7

Class: Senior

League: NCAA

Team: Gonzaga

Model Output:

Original
4.66
No Impact
2.82
Positional
3.54
Humble
0.83
Pos Humble
0.58
Average
2.49

Film View:

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