Kobe Bufkin

Model View:

The models were not very kind to Bufkin.  He did better in the Humble models where the draft position variable is highly predictive and was able to pull up his score.  But his best to models had him at #14 and #17 and the other three all had him ranked #22-44.  The models also generally viewed him as a Solid Bench Contributor or potentially a 6th man / Solid Starter.  To be fair, that is not a bad outcome once you are drafting in the teens.  But why the variance?

Models that called him a potential starter: First and foremost, his high projected draft position yielded some benefits.  Additionally, his age, impact, and shooting.  His 1.5 steals per 40 and 0.8 blocks per 40 also were beneficial in those models.

Models that gave him solid bench potential: Even these models liked his age and impact.  But they didn’t like his low offensive rebounds, his middling steals per foul, his smaller frame (pounds per inch as a SG)… and mostly that nothing really stood out.  A few of these numbers were negatives that brought down his scores, but partially, there wasn’t anything to really increase the score.  There’s a lot of solid college players, sometimes that isn’t enough.

Best Stats:

58% TS; 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocks per 40; 65% at the rim in the halfcourt; 72nd percentile as a P&R ball handler om volume

Bufkin maybe a bit of a jack of all trades and master of none, but he does all trades pretty darn well; and his ability to run the P&R and score at the rim will be important for his ability to succeed at the next level

Worst Stats:

187 pounds; 2.4 pounds per inch; 3.2 steals + blocks + oboards per 40

Nitpicking a bit here and Bufkin is a solid all around player, but his weight and frame could become an issue at the next level.  I appreciate his aggressive style, but can you successfully play that physically (both executing and avoiding injury) when you are that light?

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

I don’t know that Bufkin is great enough at any one skill to be a star.  For that, you need to have a consistent competitive advantage you can exploit.  But to hit his ceiling, Bufkin needs to continue to shoot, continue to score inside efficiently, and have his defense translate.  The defense might be the diciest.  The effort and savvy will be there.  But will the size and vulnerability we saw against players like Hood-Schifino and Shannon come back to haunt him?

Verdict:

Bufkin should be able to carve out a role in the NBA.  The combination of scoring touch, handles, passing, shooting, and what should at least be passable defense give him a solid floor.  It kind of feels like at a minimum, he can be the kind of combo guard people wanted Bones Hyland to be (and still hope he can).  I will say, I have seen some comparisons to Davion Mitchell defensively and I don’t think he has Davion’s high end characteristics or abilities, other than being very aggressive.

I also have some mild concerns that Michigan ran a lot of motion and would often have Bufkin coming off 2-3 screens to create an advantage he could exploit.  But it he is more of a role player in the NBA, will teams design an offense to get him those opportunities?  Where Bufkin lands could be very important.  If he ends up on a team where he is sent to sit in a corner, then you are taking away a lot of how he can contribute.  So I am really hoping Bufkin winds up on a team that is able to take advantage of his gifts.

However, while there is some risk, I do lean towards betting on Bufkin, because his determination and the improvement he showed between seasons at least let’s me believe that he loves the game and will be relentless trying to maximize his tools.  In the event of a tie between two players, I’d rather roll the dice on someone like that then someone who has better tools, but might not put in the effort.

Overall, I have Bufkin towards the back of my 4th tier with some debate about moving back to Tier 5.  I still generally view him as a fairly safe role player, but one with perhaps a bit more downside or more likelihood to prove the models correct and be more of a rotation player than a plus starter.  And I don’t know that his role as a sort of combo guard will be as valuable as some of switchable wings or two-level defensive SF/PFs in the same tier. I would struggle to take Bufkin in the top 10.  But would feel pretty drafting him somewhere in the 10-16 range.