Gradey Dick

Height: 6'7.5"

Weight: 205

Position: SG/SF

Draft Age: 19.6

Class: Freshman

League: NCAA

Team: Kansas

Advanced

OBPM: 4.9

DBPM: 2.9

BPM: 7.7

WS/40: .165

Efficiency

TS%: .581

2P%: .484

3P%: .403

FT%: .854

FG%: .442

Strengths & Development Areas:

Catch & Shoot
Motor
Movement Shooter
Shoot Off The Dribble
Change Of Direction
Navigating Screens

Model Output:

Original
6.43
No Impact
6.06
Positional
8.15
Humble
7.99
Pos Humble
11.37
Average
8

Film View:

Gradey Dick is first and foremost an elite movement shooter who creates creates enormous gravity providing spacing for his teammates.  Dick’s value starts with his strong shooting ability.  He has clean mechanics, a high release point, and the ability to get his balance and fire up an accurate shot with…

Physically Similar NCAA Prospects:

(Based on Height / Wingspan / Weight, not on Playing Style / Skill / Ceiling)

Mikal BridgesKlay ThompsonEvan Turner

Best Stats:

91st percentile total offense.  96th percentile shooting off the dribble. 7.7 BPM.  2.9 DBPM.  1.8 steals / 40.

Dick is a phenomenal shooter, who made a real impact as a freshman.  However, he’s not simply a one dimensional shooter who is a mess defensively.  Beyond some of the promising flashes from the tape, he had a good DBPM (yes, take that with a grain of salt) and high steals per 40 is an indicator of applied athleticism, which really gives hope his defense can at least be average as he adds some strength and awareness.

Worst Stats:

8% of possessions used on P&R and 1% on Isolation plays.  0.3 blocks per 40.

None of these are true achilles heel metrics.  However, Bill Self is great coach.  If he’s only using Dick in a traditional creation role on 9% of his possessions, it’s a pretty good sign he’s doing so to maximize his strengths and minimize his deficiencies.  Basically, Dick should be a great shooter, but don’t count on him suddenly stepping into the league and being a primary or likely even secondary ball handler.   Finally, the 0.3 blocks per 40 for a nearly 6’8″ player isn’t great and is a bit indicative of the lack of impact he makes rotating inside.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

To be a star, he would need outlier development on his creation ability or to really become an elite shooter who can let the game slow down for him and make better decisions inside.

To simply be a very good player, he just needs his shot to translate, to add some strength, and for his defense to be at least average.

Verdict:

I think that Dick is a relatively straightforward player (as much as any player can be in the draft).  He’s an elite shooter, who is at his best moving and running off all sorts of actions and off of different types of screens.  That shooting should translate to the NBA and the gravity he provides is immensely valuable.  And his handles and athleticism can make him a dangerous tertiary ball handler and player who thrives in chaos (driving and cutting when the defense if off balance or he gets a favorable matchup).

I would also be very surprised if he was ever the focal point of a good NBA team’s offense.  He’ll fit well in a system and it’s easy to watch the Finals (or even Conference Finals) the last few years and see how his skill set would fit wonderfully next to players like Jokic, Butler, Tatum, or Curry.

Dick’s swing skill and the only real concern is his defense.  He is probably going to be an ugly defender his first year or so.  But as he puts on weight and adapts to the league, he has enough tools and a strong enough motor that he should be able to be an adept team defender and a good enough on-ball defender.   Overall, in this draft, that likely warrants a pick somewhere in the 7-12 range.

NBA Comp High:

Kevin Martin (with more defensive upside)
Kevin Martin (with more defensive upside)
If Dick hits his ceiling, it's easy to see him following the trajectory of former Kings star Kevin Martin. Martin was also a strong shooter, who played with a bit of a herky jerky style and favored getting to his shot. He certainly became a stronger ball handler and inside finisher than Dick is now, but with some strong development, this is within the realm of possibility. However, Martin was always a pretty poor defender and while I have some criticisms of Dick's defense, I think his upside here is greater. Additionally, there is that 1% outlier chance you can squint hard enough and see Dick maybe evolving into a Klay Thompson caliber player. But Martin (who probably should have been an All Star at some point) seems like a more probable ceiling.

NBA Comp Medium:

Gary Trent Jr.
Gary Trent Jr.
I think there's a pretty realistic path to Dick at least becoming a cold blooded volume shooter, who struggles significantly more inside (Trent is a 41% career scorer from 3-10 feet). Like Trent, Dick is likely to be a credible passer, but not really a primary ball handler. And at least a credible defender, especially playing within a strong team concept like the Raptors have.

NBA Comp Low:

Malik Beasley
Malik Beasley
Perhaps this is a way of saying that Dick seems to have a relatively "safe" floor, but even in a worst case scenario, it's hard to imagine that his shot doesn't translate once he adapts to NBA defenses. I also think he's athletic enough and has a good enough frame that he's not going to be a Trajon Langdon, Jimmer Fredette, or Nik Stauskas type who is just overwhelmed by NBA players. Now, he may never develop a real ability to score inside and his defense might be suspect in which case, he still has a strong possibility of following the trajectory of a sold NBA role player like Malik Beasley (hopefully minus pleading guilty to a felony).

Gradey Dick Player Statistics

Per Game

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 36 32.7 4.8 10.9 .442 2.3 5.7 .403 2.5 5.2 .484 2.1 2.5 .854 1.1 4.0 5.1 1.7 1.4 0.3 1.3 2.1 14.1

Totals

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 36 1177 174 394 .442 83 206 .403 91 188 .484 76 89 .854 40 145 185 60 52 9 45 76 507

Per 40 Minutes

Season GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
2021-22 36 1177 5.9 13.4 .442 2.8 7.0 .403 3.1 6.4 .484 2.6 3.0 .854 6.3 2.0 1.8 0.3 1.5 2.6 17.2

Advanced Stats

Season G MP PER TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/40 OBPM DBPM BPM
2021-22 36 1177 18.4 .581 .547 .523 .226 4.0 13.5 8.9 9.4 2.5 0.8 9.4 20.5 2.8 2.1 4.9 .165 4.9 2.9 7.7
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