Jaylen Clark

Model View:

The models were all pretty bullish on Clark other than the Humble model where he was pulled down a bit for his projected lower draft position.  However, the rest all pegged him as at least a 6th Man / Solid Starter with some rating him as a Plus Starter with All Star potential.

And the why isn’t tough to figure out.  He had an insane 3.4 steals per 40 and more steals than fouls.  He had an 11.9 BPM.  UCLA had a strong SOS.  He had a positive A/T.  Overall, he checked a lot of boxes.  And while we can discuss his shooting more in the film section, his 55% TS wasn’t bad enough to really hold down his ratings.

Best Stats:

6.7 DBPM.

In my dataset, Jaylen Clark has the 4th highest DBPM of any NCAA wing dating back to about 2011 when they started keeping track of BPM.  The three above him are Briante Weber, Matisse Thybuelle, and Delon Wright.  Just below him are TJ McConnell, Marcus Smart, Victor Oladipo, and Sindarius Thornwell.  All strong defenders, where offensive competence has really been the swing skill.

Worst Stats:

33rd percentile on spot ups and 47th percentile in Catch and Shoot as a junior; While he did hit 33% of his threes and 70% of his free throws, he shot 26% and 20% the prior two years from three and 52% and 75% on free throws the prior two years.

The difference between Clark being a situational role player and a potential plus starter is his shot.  There’s some reason to be optimistic about his progress or create a narrative where it is due to him being a gym rat.  However, this kind of college data is noisy and sometimes those improvements as players get older and ajust to say the college three point line don’t always carry over to the NBA.

To be a star or to hit their ceiling:

To be an underappreciated star he needs to come back at 100% health when he’s ready and have his monster defense translate at an elite level, while not being an offensive liability.  But since we don’t consider elite defensive players to be star [coughs and looks at the screen like Jim in The Office],  don’t think he’ll ever be a traditional offensive star.  However, he can still hit a very nice ceiling if he is a plus to elite defender and can make his jumper just credible enough that he can be an off-ball threat who can shoot and drive opportunistically.

Verdict:

First let me admit that I am not a doctor and do not have access to medical staff who have seen Clark’s records and feel like violating HIPPA.  I tend to set aside injuries a bit for these rankings and assume NBA offices will do their due diligence.  I only really factor it in if a player has repetitive injuries.  Otherwise, medicine has gotten good enough we see players this young come back from gruesome injuries all the time…. until they don’t.

Now, making the assumption that some point, Clark comes back and works his way back to 100%, then I do think sometimes we have a tendency to underrate defensive players.  If someone had put up the kind of offensive production that Clark did on offense, but projected as maybe a below average but not unplayable defender, we’d be talking about them in the lottery.  But in the reverse situation, we were speculating about Clark in the second round even before his injury.  It’s also why Nash has two MVPs and people who watched Ben Wallace play will still say the Pistons are one of the few teams to  win a title without a superstar.

As we get to the teens, almost every player is going to have some flaws.  Do you want the undersized guard who scored inefficiently and might not play defense?  Do you want the big man who protects the rim and dunks, but can’t shoot outside of 3 feet?  Do you want the ideal physical specimen who occasionally dunks in the wrong hoop?  We’re kind of getting to that stage.  I think elite defensive wings are incredibly valuable.  And I think Clark has better handles and the inklings of a shot (or at least one that is not broken) that put him on a different plain than guys like Briante Weber or Sindarius Thornwell.  Yes, he might never develop his shot, but even his downside is a highly switchable defensive wing who can drive in a straight line.  You still get a Ronnie Brewer / Mo Harkless / Andre Roberson type player who will start way more games than the fans are comfortable with because they help the team.

Clearly if a team has a medical evaluation that makes it seem he won’t recover, then he drops significantly.  And if a team doesn’t want to wait a year for their first round pick, I also understand.  This is the difference between playing armchair GM and having your job and the jobs of your staff on the line.  But in terms of the value a healthy Clark can provide even in middle outcomes, I think he becomes a good gamble in that 14-20 range.